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The Case of the Missing White Voters (7,000,000 of them!)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/08/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:38 AM PST by TonyInOhio

One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."

~ SNIP ~

The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.

~ SNIP ~

But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.

~ SNIP ~

In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.

This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.

Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho2012; lost; mystery; romney2012; whitevote
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To: firebrand

Not in Mississippi... you register to vote... you go on the Jury Duty list.


81 posted on 11/08/2012 10:12:18 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (I AM JOHN GALT)
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To: old curmudgeon
So why have we not heard from them for the past couple of months?

With the knee-jerk fecal hurricane which is slung at anyone who ever said they agree with Ron Paul when he notes even something so insignificant at the sky being blue on a sunny day, It'd be a wonder if any supporters would say anything around here. Pity, too, because he is far closer to the Constitution (original intent) than most of the alternatives.

By Alinskying Ron Paul, the baby went out with the proverbial bathwater.

82 posted on 11/08/2012 10:12:56 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: Bainbridge

I’ve seen the percentages. Meaningless though, as millions stayed home.

83 posted on 11/08/2012 10:13:58 AM PST by Double Tap
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To: ishmac

As I’ve said, the percentage is meaningless.

84 posted on 11/08/2012 10:17:58 AM PST by Double Tap
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To: TonyInOhio

Don’t you think Mitt Romney’s treatment of Ron Paul at the Republican Convention *might* have had something to do with this? Regardless of Paul’s political viewpoints, he did win the delegates fair and square.

85 posted on 11/08/2012 10:18:42 AM PST by Madam Theophilus
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To: Madam Theophilus

Paulers were determine to hurt the Republican Party. They knew that they had no chance of winning anything. The Paulers’ idea of justice is the same as Obama’s, “revenge”.

86 posted on 11/08/2012 10:21:34 AM PST by Eva
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To: R_Kangel

Whites, not conservatives. Conservatives are a decided minority of the country, and even if they all showed up, they can’t win the election.

We need to get the moderates to care, and in the end, for whatever reason, they didn’t seem to care that much.

Meanwhile, half the voting age population doesn’t bother. That’s a pool of over a hundred million people, most of whom could care less about ANYTHING we are talking about — that’s why they are unregistered.

The democrats have learned that among that large group, it’s pretty easy to find a few million who can be swayed to vote because of some really stupid, trivial cause, like “preotecting our birth control”. And if you make it easy enough for these lazy people, like coming to their house, registering them, bringing them an absentee ballot, and then taking it from them, these people WILL vote. Or if you give them some free food and a bus ride on election day, something you can afford to do if you are in an inner city with large apathetic populations.

So that’s what they do. If the media ridiculed them enough for their lies, calling on people to vote like it’s sex would hurt them with the caring part of the population, but the media protects them. If a republican tried to target a subgroup of apathetic people with a call to protect them from affirmative action (a call which would easily gets us 2 million extra white votes), the media would be non-stop recriminations, and it would be a wash.

That’s where the media comes in. It prevents Republicans from doing any sort of crass micro-targetting, while giving democrats cover. The media doesn’t even REPORT what is said in spanish language advertising, and doesn’t report what leftist radio people are saying.

Plus, it tends to be true that conservatives are already motivated, so the unregistered tend to be more liberal. There is truth to the idea that conservatives would want to suppress the vote — the smaller the electorate, the better we do, because you eliminate the idiots who would vote for someone because they’d get free pizza.

87 posted on 11/08/2012 10:28:52 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Double Tap

Yeah, it is a disgrace. If your house is on fire, you get the hose and do what you can. If you just stand there and say well, I have lost part of it so oh well. you are left with nothing. Obscene.

88 posted on 11/08/2012 10:30:37 AM PST by Bainbridge
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To: kingattax


89 posted on 11/08/2012 10:31:13 AM PST by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: R_Kangel

Not all were conservative but some were. I voted other races but skipped my governor race and the presidential vote. Democrat was going to win no matter what but I despised my choices. The Republican nominee for Governor helped cover up the theft of Rossi’s first gubanatorial run. Like hell I’d vote for that guy. And Romney? LOL

Just what was he going to do again if elected? Best I figure we could count on him not to take cheap shots at Israel and ease some regulations to let business breathe. A few more people get jobs but under no cicrcumstance would he do a solitary thing to limit or decrease government. He was already teasing his willingness to work with the other side, wouldn’t throw out all of Obamacare, and after Roberts why would I trust any republican to get the SC nomination right. The party, both it’s leaders and followers, elected a Mass Liberal and expect me to get in line to elect him? The country was screwed either way.

90 posted on 11/08/2012 10:36:43 AM PST by Soul Seeker (I will work every day to make Washington, D.C. as inconsequential in your lives as I can - Perry)
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To: God luvs America

Colorado had all sorts of problems, didn’t it...?

91 posted on 11/08/2012 10:40:02 AM PST by Cyropaedia ("Virtue cannot separate itself from reality without becoming a principal of evil...".)
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To: TonyInOhio; All
It's clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose.

You're wrong. It had nothing to do with policy. Romney ran on traditional American know-how, a positive campaign of ideas.

Romney bet that playing nice and running on conpetence would be enough, but bringing a knife to a gun fight leads to getting shot. He never respoded to Obama's attacks in kind, betting that playing nice would appeal to the mushy middle - he lost that bet.

Wrong again. Romney "played nice" because he had a huge problem with likability and he closed that gap by election day telling me it was the right strategy for him.

I haven't read the whole piece yet but the "lessons" are probably wrong based on your take away commentary. Romney doesn't have to have done things wrong in this campaign to have lost to Obama. He ran a great campaign; he performed very well in the debates.

In Ohio he was crippled by Obama's mischaracterization of the auto bailout op-ed Romney wrote years ago.

92 posted on 11/08/2012 10:42:10 AM PST by newzjunkey (Obama thanks Pontius Pilate Freepers for giving him four more years!)
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To: detective

I live in a very red state. I’m FROM an even redder state (OK). The conservatives in these states are generally very religious, very fiscally conservative (some dems are even fiscally conservative), and against Obamacare. Romney’s Mormonism was NOT an issue with these people (me included). The fact that he was a moderate was not an issue with these people because everyone felt the MOST important goal was getting Obama out of the White House first and getting Obamacare repealed and implementing some common sense fiscal policy to address our economy. I am not buying that evangelicals or whites or Ron Paul people stayed home. We conservatives came out in huge numbers because we saw a dangerous man in the White House. I, too, believe fraud is the real reason Romney’s votes were outnumbered by Obama’s votes. No way were we not motivated. Romney was my 6th choice for president during the primaries and on Wednesday I was fired up, excited, and extremely optomistic that OUR day was here. Everyone I know felt that way. Something is wrong here, people.

I keep thinking back to Fox News Sunday this week when Axelrod was on. He was so smug. So confident. Almost smirking when Wallace asked him about the election outcome. Axel had said he would shave his mustache if Obama lost and when Wallace asked him if he would keep that promise, he kind of snickered and said he was VERY sure his mustache would be right there next week. Optomism and confidence is one thing. Smugness and smirkiness suggests the fix was in and he knew it.

93 posted on 11/08/2012 10:47:43 AM PST by CheathamCountyTN
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To: GeronL

agreed these results do not make sense and I have listed a few points on my profile page.

Even the UN obervers have now gone home and said they cannot beleive how we are allowed to mail in votes, vote on line, hand out ballots while standing in line, never show ID etc.

Something has to be done as we have no way of knowing who votes and how many times and if they;re legal

94 posted on 11/08/2012 10:50:48 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Brookhaven

oooooooooor, ya know, they could nominate an actual conservative. That might help draw conservatives to the polls.

I’m white, anarcho-capitalist, and haven’t missed an election since I turned 18, but could not pull the lever for a north-eastern liberal like Mittens...

That being said, Oklahoma is the reddest state in the union so my vote didn’t matter anyway.

I just wish I could have voted for Johnson.

95 posted on 11/08/2012 10:51:14 AM PST by yantis
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To: 9YearLurker

Look at my profile page as there are many cases which do not add up with these results.

We have a mickey mouse election system and no way of doing knowing if people shoudl vote, legal, illegals, vote twice

96 posted on 11/08/2012 10:54:29 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: God luvs America

I’ve looked at those results and trust me they do not add up,
Even here republican counties voted more, polls had Romney up by 7, obama only got 5000 in Tampa and yet he might win this state!!! Look at WI, VA, OH, FL and those results are not adding up and the numbers do not make sense.

States do not go all republican , a Gov wins twice and yet they vote for obama and a senator

97 posted on 11/08/2012 10:58:25 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: TheConservativeParty

obama gets less than 5000 yet wins Tampa.
Ballots given out to people in line in two Dem counties so we ave knowing who voted and if they were illegas
Republican observers thrown out of prcints in sme cases for hours.

It goes on and on and we know Holder and his people had 4 years of planning.

From what I have seen, from who I have talked to etc then I do not settle on these results at all,WI, FL, VA, OH

98 posted on 11/08/2012 11:02:43 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Smokin' Joe

I noticed that too. Many states had referendums that were pro-union and/or some other stupid democrat policy and ALL of those things would be voted down but then the state went to Obama. Can’t remember exactly which ones but there was more than one. Wisconsin might have been one.

99 posted on 11/08/2012 11:03:21 AM PST by CheathamCountyTN
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To: TonyInOhio
I've been attacked on here as a nut, but I'm one of those voters who simply voted straight ticket Republican but went back and dis-selected Romney in the presidential election. I suspect a lot of true conservatives did the same.

There are "nose despite your face" arguments, but the bottom line is you cannot vote against a candidate in our elections and therefore some people could not morally vote for an ultra liberal like Romney. I suspect at least 1% of the 3% mentioned in this article are similar cases.
100 posted on 11/08/2012 11:03:43 AM PST by TexasGunLover ("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
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