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The Case of the Missing White Voters (7,000,000 of them!)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/08/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:38 AM PST by TonyInOhio

One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."

~ SNIP ~

The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.

~ SNIP ~

But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.

~ SNIP ~

In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.

This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.

Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho2012; lost; mystery; romney2012; whitevote
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To: Bainbridge
Actually that is incorrect. Look at the numbers Ralph Reed put up today.

I'd love to see that - have a link?

51 posted on 11/08/2012 8:38:31 AM PST by TonyInOhio (I still believe America is worth fighting for.)
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To: TonyInOhio

It’s not that difficult to NOT COUNT Romney votes, is it? Something will eventually come out but it won’t matter, as usual. 0bama winning nearly all the battle ground states and Romney winning nearly all the non-battle ground states makes no sense.


52 posted on 11/08/2012 8:39:23 AM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: God luvs America

“all you had to do was look at the totals on election night to realize our side did not come out to vote in numbers...thats why all this “Romney lost because of woman and latino’s” is BS- he lost because not enough white folks voted...”

And what’s the lesson the GOP will draw from this?

liberal women = reliable voters
liberal latinos = reliable voters
conservative whites = unreliable voters

If the GOP can’t rely on conservatives to vote, they will go after the reliable voters instead. Meaning, the GOP will shift left.


53 posted on 11/08/2012 8:39:23 AM PST by Brookhaven (theconservativehand.com - alt2p.com)
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To: bboop

Johnson did not get enough votes in VA, FL, PA or OH to cause a Romney loss. It was tight, but Johnson was not a major reason for the loss. Low turnout was. Compared to 2008, 14 million stayed home. Factor in population growth and it is closer 20 million.(R needed 67 electoral votes to flip, or about 2 million votes in 4 states. If so, he wins the Pres, but looses the popular vote.)

Romney caused the loss, no one else.


54 posted on 11/08/2012 8:41:43 AM PST by JimBianchi11 (The 2A is the cornerstone of our free society. Those that don't support it, oppose it.)
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To: Brookhaven

listen- i blame the GOPe for this loss as much as everyone else...fool me once, shame on you..fool me twice- shame on me...they were as unprepared to handle obama and the media this time around as they were in 2008....

we (the Tea Party) delivered a massive victory for them in 2010 and they responded by giving us the big FU...the word needs to be heard loud and clear- they can work with us or we will work against them....


55 posted on 11/08/2012 8:46:32 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: bboop

That assumes that all of those votes would have gone to Romney. They wouldn’t have. Gary Johnson was the first legitimate candidate the Libertarians have offered up. He was a very successful governor, and actually articulated a vision for the country. That’s why he did well, compared to the historical Libertarian electoral record.


56 posted on 11/08/2012 8:48:20 AM PST by cdcdawg
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To: Numbers Guy
The key factor was the Bain attacks in swing states. That kept blue collar types who were not at all keen on Obama home. They didn’t like Obama, but didn’t feel motivated to vote for Romney.

I just checked the results in Pennsylvania which Obama won by 7%. But that 7% works out to only 30 votes per voting district.

57 posted on 11/08/2012 8:49:26 AM PST by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
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To: metmom

There is a simple mechanism for determining if the total amount of votes turned in by a precinct is valid—stickers.

Where I vote, whenever a voter leaves they are handed a sticker that says “I voted.” Not a big deal, but it is a tradition that goes back decades.

If you start out the day with 1,000 stickers and you end the day with 425 stickers, that means 575 votes were cast at that location. If it comes in way below or above that, you know there is a problem (like people casting multiple ballots—which was alleged in one story).

Low tech? Sure, but when it comes to high tech machines like electronic voting machines using a low tech audit method makes it harder to cheat. Plus, it’s easy to implement.


58 posted on 11/08/2012 8:50:21 AM PST by Brookhaven (theconservativehand.com - alt2p.com)
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To: Sooth2222
This is exactly my thought, and unfortunately the opposite of what the Republican establishment seems inclined to do next time. Obama did terribly compared to previous presidents reelections. Has a president ever won reelection with fewer votes before? This was the Republican's election to lose, and somehow, against all odds, they managed to do that. And I don't think that a brown Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican Party's salvation.

THIS!
59 posted on 11/08/2012 8:52:53 AM PST by snarkytart
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To: JimBianchi11

the number Romney needed in four states was close to 350K not 2 million:

Florida/29 EV/Romney lost by 50K votes..
Ohio/18EV/Romney lost by 105K votes
Virginia/13EV/Romney lost by 115K votes...
Colorado/9EV/Romney lost by 115K votes (this one disturbs me)


60 posted on 11/08/2012 8:53:08 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: vortigern

I heard something about our votes being counted in Spain?


61 posted on 11/08/2012 8:57:22 AM PST by tayper (Granny told me, Saying it don't make it so)
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To: TonyInOhio

All the post mortems aside, recall the hype before and during the election: RECORD TURNOUT was the talk of the town. EVERYWHERE!!! RECORD TURNOUT in early voting. RECORD TURNOUT in absentee voting. RECORD TURNOUT at the polls. LONG LINES at most if not all polling stations. MANY polling stations stayed open late to accomodate the LONG LINES. And NOW we’re led to believe it was all just a figment of our collective imaginations... What happened to the votes???


62 posted on 11/08/2012 8:57:53 AM PST by ForGod'sSake (2C7:14 If my people..shall humble themselves and pray..I will hear from heaven..and heal their land.)
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To: God luvs America
I wrote in my book that the GOP establishment would rather lose with a moderate than win with a conservative. That's why I wrote the book, to find a way to win without relying on the GOP.

I didn't see anything in this election to change my mind.



The Conservative Hand: a Manifesto to Achieve Conservative Political Goals


www.TheConservativeHand.com


 The American Legitimate Tax Second Party


 alt2p.org

63 posted on 11/08/2012 8:58:24 AM PST by Brookhaven (theconservativehand.com - alt2p.com)
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To: Brookhaven

True, but you have to have a GOP leadership that cares, and obviously they don’t since they won’t fight against it.


64 posted on 11/08/2012 9:01:59 AM PST by metmom (For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore & do not submit again to a yoke of slavery)
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To: God luvs America

You are right, but I was factoring the fraud factor.

Republicans need to win with a large margin or the Dems will steal it.

Bush/Gore was close enough that I was sure they would steal it.(and they tried)


65 posted on 11/08/2012 9:05:01 AM PST by JimBianchi11 (The 2A is the cornerstone of our free society. Those that don't support it, oppose it.)
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To: TonyInOhio

“It’s clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose.”

Then explain how true blue through and through conservatives like Mia Love and Allen West, as well as other conservatives in many states lost also.


66 posted on 11/08/2012 9:08:45 AM PST by flaglady47 (When the gov't fears the people, liberty; When the people fear the gov't, tyranny.)
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To: BeauBo

Unhappily for Obamao, UN treaties do not supercede the US Constitution.


67 posted on 11/08/2012 9:20:36 AM PST by snowrip (Liberal? You are a socialist idiot with no rational argument.)
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To: TonyInOhio
There were longer lines to vote than anyone had seen. There were record wait times required to vote. Voters who voted for Romney reported that the voting machines recorded their vote for Obama.

It amazes me that so many FReepers blindly believe the story that Republican voters didn't vote and that turnout was higher in Democrat areas.

There was huge attendance at Republican rallies before the election.

I don't have the proof but it appears that there was massive vote fraud in the battle ground states. Instead of recriminations and hand wringing perhaps it might be better to look into this.

68 posted on 11/08/2012 9:21:05 AM PST by detective
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To: Pride in the USA; Stillwaters

My guess is that of these white voters who didn’t vote, a large percentage of them don’t pay taxes, for whatever reason, and very few of them work in the private sector or own businesses. We may find a surprising percentage of them have Obamaphones.

This could be the first generation of voting age white Americans who have little or no desire towards accomplishment or achievement.

As I heard Dennis Miller say this morning, running Marco Rubio in 2016 wouldn’t appeal to this demographic. The “O” at the end of his name wouldn’t matter unless it had a lot of O’s after it and a dollar sign in front of it.


69 posted on 11/08/2012 9:25:52 AM PST by lonevoice (Today I broke my personal record for most consecutive days lived)
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To: Goldsborough

Since you did not vote, you should have the character to keep you opinion to yourself.

People who don’t vote give up the most precious of our rights and are not smart enough to give advice to anyone.


70 posted on 11/08/2012 9:30:35 AM PST by old curmudgeon
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To: TonyInOhio
"Fascinating, and opposite to the prevailing conventional wisdom about why Romney lost. It's clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose."

This was purely a gotv beat.

"Early voting gave Dems weeks to ship low info voters to polls." - Dan Gainor (Media Research Council)

71 posted on 11/08/2012 9:31:05 AM PST by StAnDeliver (/)
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To: TMA62

Yeah, no question they stole Philadelphia, and probably therefore Pennsylvania. From what I read, they ramp up votes before voting begins. You have to check the vote count on the machine at the beginning to make sure it reads zero, or you won’t be able to catch that. That’s why they threw out the Republican poll watchers at the beginning of the day. I’m more curious what happened with Ohio. Failure to count? Republicans probably don’t have the money to search out the fraud, and that’s a big shame. We may never get another chance.


72 posted on 11/08/2012 9:33:38 AM PST by Missouri gal
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To: TonyInOhio

http://www.umich.edu/~lawrace/disenfranchise1.htm


73 posted on 11/08/2012 9:34:59 AM PST by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: Numbers Guy
"The key factor was the Bain attacks in swing states. That kept blue collar types who were not at all keen on Obama home. They didn’t like Obama, but didn’t feel motivated to vote for Romney."

Nope. Got beat by early voting, and we've got to figure out how to strangle handle it.

"Early voting gave Dems weeks to ship low info voters to polls." - Dan Gainor (Media Research Council)

74 posted on 11/08/2012 9:35:06 AM PST by StAnDeliver (/)
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To: Josephat

“We need to go back to one day voting and paper ballots supplemented with a photo id requirement and 24hour indelible purple ink. We do not need or want any computer assistance in tabulating our votes. The old fashioned way may take longer but vote integrity is worth it. These remedies are simple and common sense but I’ll fall over in a faint if they are enacted any time soon. We should also require that all military ballots are counted before any others.”

I agree with all of this.


75 posted on 11/08/2012 9:39:16 AM PST by Psalm 144 (Turns out that White Horse was just a whitewashed jackass.)
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To: TonyInOhio

BTW...”Missing Voters” ...is a distraction...look for the “excess voters”...and you’ll find the answers...

Listening to descriptions of how “Democrats got out their ground game” with “superior ability to bring those to the polls who normally would never go” by the commentators on Fox election night..made me realize..what they actually have done is track names that HAVE NOT VOTED IN MANY, MANY elections cycles....and vote them.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/23/No-Car-Finds-2-214-Registered-Voters-110-Years-of-Age-Older

A well-funded project, county-by-county..to examine the names signed in at at the polls..and going out to find those individuals..you’ll find they were never physically at he polls..or they themselves never filled out the absentee ballot....or their names in the death registers.(or both!!)


76 posted on 11/08/2012 9:40:29 AM PST by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: LibLieSlayer

Isn’t it now illegal to take jury members from the voting rolls? One of the voting-rights acts.


77 posted on 11/08/2012 9:43:43 AM PST by firebrand
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To: TonyInOhio

Rush is just now going thru the numbers in more detail. Fewer Republicans voted for Romney than did for McCain. About three (3) million Republicans DID NOT vote. That’s enough to have put Romney up by about 100K. Nice work sliders. Staying home worked out great and you got the Obamuzzie you deserve. Now I’m going to spend the other half of my campaign money on ammunition.


78 posted on 11/08/2012 9:56:39 AM PST by cherokee1 (skip the names---just kick the buttz)
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To: God luvs America

True. They blunted the force of the most amazing grassroots movement in modern politics.

I have watched this phenomenon ever since I got into politics: the Republicans are more afraid of the conservatives in their own party than they are of the Marxist Muslim-supporting Democrats. Because it threatens their wee privileges as big cheeses in the party.


79 posted on 11/08/2012 9:59:00 AM PST by firebrand
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To: Errant

I’d look at the downticket races as well, especially the Senate. That didn’t make sense, either, especially when those races went to a Dem contrary to all other races in the state.


80 posted on 11/08/2012 10:04:13 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: firebrand

Not in Mississippi... you register to vote... you go on the Jury Duty list.

LLS


81 posted on 11/08/2012 10:12:18 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (I AM JOHN GALT)
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To: old curmudgeon
So why have we not heard from them for the past couple of months?

With the knee-jerk fecal hurricane which is slung at anyone who ever said they agree with Ron Paul when he notes even something so insignificant at the sky being blue on a sunny day, It'd be a wonder if any supporters would say anything around here. Pity, too, because he is far closer to the Constitution (original intent) than most of the alternatives.

By Alinskying Ron Paul, the baby went out with the proverbial bathwater.

82 posted on 11/08/2012 10:12:56 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: Bainbridge

I’ve seen the percentages. Meaningless though, as millions stayed home.


83 posted on 11/08/2012 10:13:58 AM PST by Double Tap
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To: ishmac

As I’ve said, the percentage is meaningless.


84 posted on 11/08/2012 10:17:58 AM PST by Double Tap
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To: TonyInOhio

Don’t you think Mitt Romney’s treatment of Ron Paul at the Republican Convention *might* have had something to do with this? Regardless of Paul’s political viewpoints, he did win the delegates fair and square.


85 posted on 11/08/2012 10:18:42 AM PST by Madam Theophilus
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To: Madam Theophilus

Paulers were determine to hurt the Republican Party. They knew that they had no chance of winning anything. The Paulers’ idea of justice is the same as Obama’s, “revenge”.


86 posted on 11/08/2012 10:21:34 AM PST by Eva
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To: R_Kangel

Whites, not conservatives. Conservatives are a decided minority of the country, and even if they all showed up, they can’t win the election.

We need to get the moderates to care, and in the end, for whatever reason, they didn’t seem to care that much.

Meanwhile, half the voting age population doesn’t bother. That’s a pool of over a hundred million people, most of whom could care less about ANYTHING we are talking about — that’s why they are unregistered.

The democrats have learned that among that large group, it’s pretty easy to find a few million who can be swayed to vote because of some really stupid, trivial cause, like “preotecting our birth control”. And if you make it easy enough for these lazy people, like coming to their house, registering them, bringing them an absentee ballot, and then taking it from them, these people WILL vote. Or if you give them some free food and a bus ride on election day, something you can afford to do if you are in an inner city with large apathetic populations.

So that’s what they do. If the media ridiculed them enough for their lies, calling on people to vote like it’s sex would hurt them with the caring part of the population, but the media protects them. If a republican tried to target a subgroup of apathetic people with a call to protect them from affirmative action (a call which would easily gets us 2 million extra white votes), the media would be non-stop recriminations, and it would be a wash.

That’s where the media comes in. It prevents Republicans from doing any sort of crass micro-targetting, while giving democrats cover. The media doesn’t even REPORT what is said in spanish language advertising, and doesn’t report what leftist radio people are saying.

Plus, it tends to be true that conservatives are already motivated, so the unregistered tend to be more liberal. There is truth to the idea that conservatives would want to suppress the vote — the smaller the electorate, the better we do, because you eliminate the idiots who would vote for someone because they’d get free pizza.


87 posted on 11/08/2012 10:28:52 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: Double Tap

Yeah, it is a disgrace. If your house is on fire, you get the hose and do what you can. If you just stand there and say well, I have lost part of it so oh well. you are left with nothing. Obscene.


88 posted on 11/08/2012 10:30:37 AM PST by Bainbridge
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To: kingattax

ping


89 posted on 11/08/2012 10:31:13 AM PST by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: R_Kangel

Not all were conservative but some were. I voted other races but skipped my governor race and the presidential vote. Democrat was going to win no matter what but I despised my choices. The Republican nominee for Governor helped cover up the theft of Rossi’s first gubanatorial run. Like hell I’d vote for that guy. And Romney? LOL

Just what was he going to do again if elected? Best I figure we could count on him not to take cheap shots at Israel and ease some regulations to let business breathe. A few more people get jobs but under no cicrcumstance would he do a solitary thing to limit or decrease government. He was already teasing his willingness to work with the other side, wouldn’t throw out all of Obamacare, and after Roberts why would I trust any republican to get the SC nomination right. The party, both it’s leaders and followers, elected a Mass Liberal and expect me to get in line to elect him? The country was screwed either way.


90 posted on 11/08/2012 10:36:43 AM PST by Soul Seeker (I will work every day to make Washington, D.C. as inconsequential in your lives as I can - Perry)
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To: God luvs America

Colorado had all sorts of problems, didn’t it...?


91 posted on 11/08/2012 10:40:02 AM PST by Cyropaedia ("Virtue cannot separate itself from reality without becoming a principal of evil...".)
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To: TonyInOhio; All
It's clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose.

You're wrong. It had nothing to do with policy. Romney ran on traditional American know-how, a positive campaign of ideas.

Romney bet that playing nice and running on conpetence would be enough, but bringing a knife to a gun fight leads to getting shot. He never respoded to Obama's attacks in kind, betting that playing nice would appeal to the mushy middle - he lost that bet.

Wrong again. Romney "played nice" because he had a huge problem with likability and he closed that gap by election day telling me it was the right strategy for him.

I haven't read the whole piece yet but the "lessons" are probably wrong based on your take away commentary. Romney doesn't have to have done things wrong in this campaign to have lost to Obama. He ran a great campaign; he performed very well in the debates.

In Ohio he was crippled by Obama's mischaracterization of the auto bailout op-ed Romney wrote years ago.

92 posted on 11/08/2012 10:42:10 AM PST by newzjunkey (Obama thanks Pontius Pilate Freepers for giving him four more years!)
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To: detective

I live in a very red state. I’m FROM an even redder state (OK). The conservatives in these states are generally very religious, very fiscally conservative (some dems are even fiscally conservative), and against Obamacare. Romney’s Mormonism was NOT an issue with these people (me included). The fact that he was a moderate was not an issue with these people because everyone felt the MOST important goal was getting Obama out of the White House first and getting Obamacare repealed and implementing some common sense fiscal policy to address our economy. I am not buying that evangelicals or whites or Ron Paul people stayed home. We conservatives came out in huge numbers because we saw a dangerous man in the White House. I, too, believe fraud is the real reason Romney’s votes were outnumbered by Obama’s votes. No way were we not motivated. Romney was my 6th choice for president during the primaries and on Wednesday I was fired up, excited, and extremely optomistic that OUR day was here. Everyone I know felt that way. Something is wrong here, people.

I keep thinking back to Fox News Sunday this week when Axelrod was on. He was so smug. So confident. Almost smirking when Wallace asked him about the election outcome. Axel had said he would shave his mustache if Obama lost and when Wallace asked him if he would keep that promise, he kind of snickered and said he was VERY sure his mustache would be right there next week. Optomism and confidence is one thing. Smugness and smirkiness suggests the fix was in and he knew it.


93 posted on 11/08/2012 10:47:43 AM PST by CheathamCountyTN
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To: GeronL

agreed these results do not make sense and I have listed a few points on my profile page.

Even the UN obervers have now gone home and said they cannot beleive how we are allowed to mail in votes, vote on line, hand out ballots while standing in line, never show ID etc.

Something has to be done as we have no way of knowing who votes and how many times and if they;re legal


94 posted on 11/08/2012 10:50:48 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Brookhaven

oooooooooor, ya know, they could nominate an actual conservative. That might help draw conservatives to the polls.

I’m white, anarcho-capitalist, and haven’t missed an election since I turned 18, but could not pull the lever for a north-eastern liberal like Mittens...

That being said, Oklahoma is the reddest state in the union so my vote didn’t matter anyway.

I just wish I could have voted for Johnson.


95 posted on 11/08/2012 10:51:14 AM PST by yantis
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To: 9YearLurker

Look at my profile page as there are many cases which do not add up with these results.

We have a mickey mouse election system and no way of doing knowing if people shoudl vote, legal, illegals, vote twice


96 posted on 11/08/2012 10:54:29 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: God luvs America

I’ve looked at those results and trust me they do not add up,
Even here republican counties voted more, polls had Romney up by 7, obama only got 5000 in Tampa and yet he might win this state!!! Look at WI, VA, OH, FL and those results are not adding up and the numbers do not make sense.

States do not go all republican , a Gov wins twice and yet they vote for obama and a senator


97 posted on 11/08/2012 10:58:25 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: TheConservativeParty

obama gets less than 5000 yet wins Tampa.
Ballots given out to people in line in two Dem counties so we ave knowing who voted and if they were illegas
Republican observers thrown out of prcints in sme cases for hours.

It goes on and on and we know Holder and his people had 4 years of planning.

From what I have seen, from who I have talked to etc then I do not settle on these results at all,WI, FL, VA, OH


98 posted on 11/08/2012 11:02:43 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Smokin' Joe

I noticed that too. Many states had referendums that were pro-union and/or some other stupid democrat policy and ALL of those things would be voted down but then the state went to Obama. Can’t remember exactly which ones but there was more than one. Wisconsin might have been one.


99 posted on 11/08/2012 11:03:21 AM PST by CheathamCountyTN
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To: TonyInOhio
I've been attacked on here as a nut, but I'm one of those voters who simply voted straight ticket Republican but went back and dis-selected Romney in the presidential election. I suspect a lot of true conservatives did the same.

There are "nose despite your face" arguments, but the bottom line is you cannot vote against a candidate in our elections and therefore some people could not morally vote for an ultra liberal like Romney. I suspect at least 1% of the 3% mentioned in this article are similar cases.
100 posted on 11/08/2012 11:03:43 AM PST by TexasGunLover ("Either you're with us or you're with the terrorists."-- President George W. Bush)
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