I have a nephew who is an actuary at a huge insurance company. Their clients are large corporations. GM for instance.
He says they have run the numbers on ObamaCare for many clients. All the clients tend to opting to accept the penalties. His company is also running the numbers for massive conversion to temporary employment.
The employers will accept the penalty over insurance. But the states w/o a penalty will be better than states with a penalty. This will be like right to work vs forced unionization. Pretty much all the jobs created in the so called recovery have been in right to work states. The economic conditions between red states and blue states will grow; that’s good.