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Why Republicans should have won the election (and why they didnít)
The Washington Post ^ | November 27, 2012 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 11/28/2012 4:57:47 PM PST by MinorityRepublican

Going into election day 2012, Republicans were very confident that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a 50-50 chance of winning the presidency. It didn’t turn out that way.

Answering the “why” posed by that discrepancy is of critical import for Republicans as they move forward to 2014 and 2016. And, a new piece by Glen Bolger, a GOP pollster and partner at Public Opinion Strategies, explains both why Republicans should have won — and why they didn’t — as succinctly as anything we have read since the election.

Here’s Bolger’s argument in a nutshell (and here’s Austin Powers in a nutshell): If the electorate had looked like 2004, Romney would have won — and perhaps won easily. But, it didn’t. And, it won’t in the future.

To wit:

* Romney won self-described independent voters by 5 points — 50 percent to 45 percent (George W. Bush lost independents to John Kerry by 1 point in 2004.)

* Romney won voters earning between $50,000 and $100,0000 by 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s less than what Bush got in 2004 (he won that group by 12) but they were 28 percent of the electorate in 2012 and just 18 percent electorate in 2004.

* Romney won white voters by 20 points, the largest margin ever for a Republican candidate.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; romney
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To: ifinnegan
Many of us knew in the Summer of 2011 that Romney was the potential candidate with the greatest probability of losing.

He proved our data on the matter to be correct.

21 posted on 11/28/2012 5:39:45 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: AnonymousConservative
The huge problem we face is that Liberals assiduously demonize Republicans, while Republicans avoid this type of behavior.

A question for thought: why do Liberals routinely get away with such demonization but Republicans don't? That has to be the case, else both or neither would. When one group regularly gets way with murder and the other doesn't, isn't it most logical to look over the enforcers?

22 posted on 11/28/2012 5:40:13 PM PST by danielmryan
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To: MinorityRepublican

Concludes that the GOP’s only hope is to win more Hispanics. Party’s doomed: only way to win more Hispanics is amnesty, and as long as a majority of Hispanics still vote Democrat, any gains will be overshadowed by the increase in the overall number of Hispanic voters.

Why not try to get blacks instead? The Republican Party did free the slaves after all.


23 posted on 11/28/2012 5:43:08 PM PST by Behind the Blue Wall
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To: Jim Robinson

The simple and obvious fact is that in 2016 the Republican candidate has to convince about 2 million people that voted for Obama in 2012 to vote for them instead. There are multiple ways to do that, not all of which are necessarily caving or adopting leftist policies. However, it’s NOT going to happen through rhetoric and policies that make the average FR posters orgasmic with joy, and people have to grow up and accept that.

Most of the “base” you want to energize are in overwhelmingly and safely Republican states already, thus they are irrelevant in all respects (save fundraising) in Presidential elections.

And there’s no particular evidence any meaningful portion of this base stayed home in 2012 in the swing states.


24 posted on 11/28/2012 5:47:43 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: Behind the Blue Wall
There was always this minority opinion that blacks enjoyed slavery ~ sounds kind of ridiculous, but that was argued quite seriously by folks who felt they had a stake in justifying the institution of slavery.

Given the marriage between black voters and the Democrat party there's probably something to that idea ~ but I'm not going to argue it.

On the other hand we can simply ignore it and attack people like the two senators in California. They are evil in every respect. Speak of them as though they are oozing puss from every pore ~ same with that Pelosi woman.

You don't need to do that on FR, but everybody knows there are many other opportunities to push the tale.

25 posted on 11/28/2012 5:48:37 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: Strategerist; Jim Robinson
Rule 1 ~ the reason political parties exist is to win elections.

Rule 2 ~ America is a big place but it's carved up into single member districts, so you must shoot for 50% + 1 vote or you will lose to the other party most of the time.

Rule 3 ~ coalition building politics in America takes place separate and apart from the legislative bodies ~ it occurs within the two major parties and is manifest by the various coalition partners.

Rule 4 ~ the two major parties are structured differently, but those structures have served to win elections. Beware of reformers who seek to restructure the proven basics. The risk of loss is very high.

Rule 5 ~ in a campaign you get out your own voters first ~ striving for non existent votes from non existent voters, e.g. undecided middle of the roaders, is a fool's errand if your coalition partners find something better to do, or if you actually told them to shut up and stay out of this!

Rule 6 ~ hardest one of all ~ don't insult and belittle people on the way up the ladder to nomination because you will need them in the election. Take care of your problem people in the years between elections ~ November is too late, so is September! And March? Even March is too late ~ ask Bill Bolling what happened to this rising moderate in Virginia!

Rule 7 ~ very basic and gets to a current issue ~ make sure the voter registration rolls are up to date and correct. There are many ways to accomplish this that are lawful and effective. This is the one place campaign consultants might be useful ~ they know stuff ~ much of it meaningless, but doing mailings and talking to the USPS are among the tricks they know how to do. Much grief will never occur if the voter rolls are clean ~

26 posted on 11/28/2012 6:02:34 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: MinorityRepublican
Three main reasons:

1) Liberal Media - much like The Washington Post
2) Liberal Media - Candy Crowley cheerleading for Obama in front of 66 million viewers.
3) Liberal Media

27 posted on 11/28/2012 6:05:37 PM PST by LdSentinal
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: MinorityRepublican

- Vote fraud.

- Voter apathy towards both candidates that caused many who voted in 2008 to stay home instead.

- Media pimping one candidate and running taxer conspiracy smears against the other.


29 posted on 11/28/2012 6:13:00 PM PST by a fool in paradise (America 2013 - STUCK ON STUPID)
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To: MinorityRepublican
romney lost because he was an east coast, elite, liberal, blue blood, country club, limo ridin’ progressive past governor of the most progressive state in the union and he ran a horrible campaign and failed to challenge obama directly... on subjects like Benghazi or his progressive past or his failed policies... or come up with a set of specific plans to achieve the goals that he himself set... and the fact that mitt was weak due to all of this and his attack on Santorum and Newt which caused about 3.5 million of the base to stay home again... all of this combined allowed the election to be close enough that it allowed the dims to steal the election in about 7 swing states... through ballot stuffing and outright theft of votes. We must be truthful with ourselves... anyone writing about this in any major publication has an agenda... and it is not ours.

LLS

30 posted on 11/28/2012 6:19:37 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: Jim Robinson

Romney’s GOP convention dissed Sarah Palin, the tea party, the other presidential candidates(including Ron Paul, which Palin warned them not to do) and social conservatives. In other words, he pissed off the very people he needed to win.


31 posted on 11/28/2012 6:31:12 PM PST by upsdriver
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To: Strategerist

Well, that’s all very well and fine, but they’re gonna have to find their squishy votes somewhere else. FR stands for God and country (our American heritage) first. And that means life, family, small government and defense as well as conservative fiscal issues. We’re not going to cut out any of the above nor guns, oil, coal, gas, industry or secure borders. Godless/globalist/socialist liberals can suck sand.


32 posted on 11/28/2012 6:33:19 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: MinorityRepublican

” Why Republicans should have won the election (and why they didn’t) “

The Republicans actually DID win - it is just the >>VOTE FRAUD<< that makes it look like they didn’t.

If you don’t SEE THE VOTE FRAUD - you ARE NOT LOOKING !

( and people have spelled out how and where the VOTE FRAUD - lots of links ——
it is there for the seeing. Soros calculated just how many and where was needed - picking the right swing states, the right districts like crooked black philadelphia etc etc


33 posted on 11/28/2012 6:33:55 PM PST by PraiseTheLord (economic civil war ?)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

With more votes than voters in Colorado, Ohio, and Florida, it is not hard to believe that vote fraud was a contributing factor.


34 posted on 11/28/2012 6:36:27 PM PST by a fool in paradise (America 2013 - STUCK ON STUPID)
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To: MinorityRepublican
Republicans were very confident that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had a 50-50 chance of winning the presidency. It didn’t turn out that way.

Actually, it did!

35 posted on 11/28/2012 6:37:41 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: upsdriver

But he made the liberal media and elites happy. And that’s all that matters/sarc.


36 posted on 11/28/2012 6:38:37 PM PST by ReformationFan
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.


37 posted on 11/28/2012 6:41:36 PM PST by Mrs. Don-o ("God bless the child that's got his own." Billie Holiday / Arthur Herzog Jr)
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To: PraiseTheLord

you need to come up with millions of votes ~ i’m seeing thousands ~ doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, but scale must be considered ~ over 160 million voters voted.


38 posted on 11/28/2012 6:42:20 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: MinorityRepublican; All

This is more of the Liberal RINO “Hispanic Voter” nonsense

Simple math disproves the “Hispanic Voter” myth.

All Romney would need is 3.5% more of the white vote...and he would have won with 0% Hispanic vote. For every 1% of white vote....you need at least 8% of Hispanic vote

Even if the Hispanic voters % goes from 10% to 15% by the next election (doubtful since the % of Hispanic voters per population is as about as low as it is for Black voters)...A GOP candidate would only need 4% more of the white vote

Anyone pushing the GOP Hispanic Voter myth is just trying to be covert on passing Illegal Alien Amnesty. Time to kill the “Hispanic Voter Myth”


39 posted on 11/28/2012 6:46:07 PM PST by SeminoleCounty (Marco Rubio is not a Conservative. "Amnesty Liberals" are never Conservative)
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To: muawiyah
There was always this minority opinion that blacks enjoyed slavery ~ sounds kind of ridiculous, but that was argued quite seriously by folks who felt they had a stake in justifying the institution of slavery. Given the marriage between black voters and the Democrat party there's probably something to that idea ~ but I'm not going to argue it.

Something I read earlier today in Iceberg Slim's autobiography (from around 1969, this passage taking place in the 1940s):

"Fast, I got to find out the secrets of pimping. I don't want to be a half-a$$ giglolo lover like the white pimps. I want to control the whole whore. I want to be the boss of her life, even her thoughts. I got to con them that Lincoln never freed the slaves."

Sounds like the Democrat playbook for keeping "The Community's" voters on the plantation, never giving their leadership backtalk or looking for greener pastures elsewhere. William Jefferson had $100,000 in cold cash in his freezer and had the National Guard escort him to rescue that money in the aftermath of Katrina while others were stranded and worse? Well, he just got while the getting was good ("and wouldn't we all like to do that?").

There exists a culture of corruption in the Democrat Party and the loyalists will not speak out against it. They don't even have to swallow all of the agenda items (such as same sex marriage or abortion on demand) but the most they can be motivated to do is not to vote for the Democrat candidate who might send them to Hell. Better just to stay at home altogether. Millions of Obama voters did this time. Even more than the number of McCainiacs who stayed home.BLOCKQUOTE

40 posted on 11/28/2012 6:56:57 PM PST by a fool in paradise (America 2013 - STUCK ON STUPID)
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