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ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out)
TBI ^ | 12-5-2012 | Sam Ro

Posted on 12/05/2012 9:48:16 AM PST by blam

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July

Sam Ro
December 5, 2012

When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.

In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:

EATING OUT IS OUT

Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.

I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%).
As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: eatingout; economy; food; obamadepression; obamanomics; obamasfault; recession; recovery
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Comment #21 Removed by Moderator

To: kevkrom

We eat out once on Friday evening and Sunday after church, otherwise we are eating at home or take our breakfast and lunch to work.

When we are in the restaurants crowds are really down except the weekend after the first of the month.

My Dad is a small business man and he is saying he hasn’t seen the economy and business this bad ever and he has been in business since 1958.


22 posted on 12/05/2012 10:42:17 AM PST by sarge83
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Comment #23 Removed by Moderator

To: CdMGuy

Hubby and I eat dinner out once a week. It is our only real ‘outing’ away from the house. I have found restaurants with specials like 2 for 1 certain nights of the week and I use Restaurant.com alot. They have some really great sales. Overall it costs us about $50 a mnth to eat out once a week. Well worth it.


24 posted on 12/05/2012 10:45:59 AM PST by sheana
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: DCBryan1
Wow. And I thought I had proofreading issues...
26 posted on 12/05/2012 10:52:36 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: blam

What about second breakfast:)


27 posted on 12/05/2012 10:57:07 AM PST by Cold Heart
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To: Cold Heart

What about second breakfast:)

...or Elevenses? I don’t think he knows about that, Pip.


28 posted on 12/05/2012 11:17:50 AM PST by Go_Raiders (The wrong smoke detector might just kill you - http://www.theworldfiresafetyfoundation.org)
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To: DCBryan1

Oh my, I don’t what to say. This might go down in the history of FR as the funniest proofreading error ever.


29 posted on 12/05/2012 11:21:43 AM PST by muggs (Hope and Change = Hoax and Chains)
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To: T. P. Pole

That is what she said...


30 posted on 12/05/2012 11:21:43 AM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: sidetracked

Thank you for saying what I was thinking!!


31 posted on 12/05/2012 11:27:04 AM PST by NEMDF
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To: muggs; blam; Admin Moderator; Everyone Else
...."eating out"...

Holy smokes....Damn Ipad. I go to lunch and come back to FR with pings and emails and a couple of voicemails on my phone with Freeper buddies laughing.

Anyways, I had the ABSOLUTELY necessary word "with" mistyped and instead of correcting the word, I guess I deleted it...creating a most embarrasing and (to you) entertaining situation. ....lets just hope my Freeper wife doesn't search my postings ;)

....and maybe the admin mods can insert the word "with" where it should be!

32 posted on 12/05/2012 11:30:12 AM PST by DCBryan1 (If there is ever another revolution, we need to decorate telephone poles with the MSM.)
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To: DCBryan1
lets just hope my Freeper wife doesn't search my postings ;)

What is your wife's freeper name? Just kidding.

33 posted on 12/05/2012 11:32:23 AM PST by muggs (Hope and Change = Hoax and Chains)
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To: kevkrom
Wow. And I thought I had proofreading issues...

I blame the Ipad.

34 posted on 12/05/2012 11:40:01 AM PST by DCBryan1 (If there is ever another revolution, we need to decorate telephone poles with the MSM.)
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Comment #35 Removed by Moderator

To: DCBryan1

I am amazed at your multi-tasking abilities in this comment.

The missing words were just too good for me not to pile on.

I believe another Freeper classic has been born. We certainly needed a good laugh after the perfisdy of the DC crowd today—thanks.


36 posted on 12/05/2012 11:41:46 AM PST by exit82 ("The Taliban is on the inside of the building" E. Nordstrom 10-10-12)
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To: DCBryan1
LOL be careful out there!


37 posted on 12/05/2012 11:42:23 AM PST by freedomlover
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To: exit82
I believe another Freeper classic has been born.

Or not. Looks like the mods are erasing all signs of its existence. Only us lucky few will ever know...

38 posted on 12/05/2012 11:46:58 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: Myrddin

Aren’t you a little worried eating at empty restaurants? I bet they’re serving days old food for their survival and your health could be at steak.


39 posted on 12/05/2012 11:48:13 AM PST by sanjuanbob
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To: Myrddin

“I usually eat the same thing 7 days a week at Chili’s for dinner”

I would go bat crazy doing that. One time we had some Japanese customers over for a couple of weeks. The first day my manager told me to take them out for lunch. We went to a local place and I explained what chicken fired steak was. Well they all had chicken fried steak. They kept asking to go back day after day after day the same thing chicken fried steak.

After 9 days I was ready to never have chicken fried steak again. The last day I convinced them to go some place else. We talked about other items on the menu and every one seemed interested in this or that. Well when the waiter came the boss ordered chicken fried steak and then they all ordered CHICKEN FIRED STEAK.


40 posted on 12/05/2012 11:52:42 AM PST by Syntyr (Happiness is two at low eight!)
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