Skip to comments.ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out)
Posted on 12/05/2012 9:48:16 AM PST by blam
ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July
December 5, 2012
When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.
In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:
EATING OUT IS OUT
Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.
I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%).
As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
A couple of these chains will survive and we will be like Europe where dining at a casual restaurant like Fridays is easily $100 or more.
Prices have been jacked through the roof, even for fast food and basic chain fare. Don’t even want to know what it costs to eat at a real restaurant these days. Eating out is now a luxury rather than a convenience for many of us.
Considering that basic food items just went up another 25 - 30 cents over the last few weeks (that’s at Wally World - it’s probably more at other stores), I can understand why eating out is so expensive - but it gets to a point where it’s just not worth it.
I went out to the movies over Thanksgiving. the tickets were not that bad, but the concessions were outrageous. No thank you I will not be doing another movie anytime soon.
Thankfully I got a lot of fish and venison in my freezer for the winter.
It is 6pm the post 6 and 7 are gone and I am still laughing from seeing this at 1 pm.
I’m glad my boss wasn’t in the office today when I read this thread. I would have hated to have to explain why I was laughing so hard. (Although he would have thought it pretty funny too.)
Sheesh, I didn’t get to read either post 6 or 7. I needed a good laugh too.
1130 pm and I am still laughing.
Looks like they found #6...
Read post 32 and figure it out.
I missed it too. Darn.
I’ve figured out that he probably eats out every week and in his post he left out the preposition ‘with’. Apparently the context made the typo even funnier. I’m thinking he said something like there weren’t as many people there as there usually are. Darn - I wish somebody saved the it.
Mr. B says to read post 32 to figure it out.