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ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July (Eating Out)
TBI ^ | 12-5-2012 | Sam Ro

Posted on 12/05/2012 9:48:16 AM PST by blam

ROSENBERG: One Of The Most Reliable Economic Indicators Peaked In July

Sam Ro
December 5, 2012

When the official headline economic indicators don't work, savvy investors turn to the unconventional economic indicators.

In his latest Breakfast With Dave note, David Rosenberg visits a signal being sent by the restaurant sector:

EATING OUT IS OUT

Our hedge fund desk has always told me that among the most reliable cyclical indicators for the American consumers is the restaurant sector. Traffic is slowing down precipitously and the companies are issuing negative guidance.

I took a look at the monthly details from the latest PCE data and saw that in nominal dollars, consumer spending on eating out sagged 0.4% in October and has contracted now in three of the past four months. The YoY trend peaked at +5.7% in July and has since slowed to +4.4% which is the softest pace in eight months (the three-month trend which a year ago was running at 7.5% at an annual rate is now close to stall-speed of 2%).
As a sign that families are becoming more cautious in their spending and eating habits, grocery shopping is up in two of the past three months and at double the trend (at4%) of the restaurant industry.

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan has argued that the economy went into recession in mid-2012. This evidence seems to support that thesis.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: eatingout; economy; food; obamadepression; obamanomics; obamasfault; recession; recovery
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To: blam
I took my (2) kids to Red Robin on Saturday for lunch. I ordered the special burger (only $6.99), my son ordered off the kid's menu and my daughter ordered a wrap sandwich. 3 cokes. The bill was $38 by the time I tipped. I about fell over. Burgers were between 10-12 dollars. Who can afford this right now? I predict even more empty commercial real estate by next summer.

A couple of these chains will survive and we will be like Europe where dining at a casual restaurant like Fridays is easily $100 or more.

51 posted on 12/05/2012 12:40:34 PM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: MrB
"They can erase all they want, I figured out what the typo was, and they can’t erase my mind... :)"
That makes you a cunning linguist!
52 posted on 12/05/2012 2:09:42 PM PST by outofsalt ("If History teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything")
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To: blam

Prices have been jacked through the roof, even for fast food and basic chain fare. Don’t even want to know what it costs to eat at a real restaurant these days. Eating out is now a luxury rather than a convenience for many of us.

Considering that basic food items just went up another 25 - 30 cents over the last few weeks (that’s at Wally World - it’s probably more at other stores), I can understand why eating out is so expensive - but it gets to a point where it’s just not worth it.


53 posted on 12/05/2012 3:37:41 PM PST by Some Fat Guy in L.A. (Still bitterly clinging to rational thought despite it's unfashionability)
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To: Some Fat Guy in L.A.

I went out to the movies over Thanksgiving. the tickets were not that bad, but the concessions were outrageous. No thank you I will not be doing another movie anytime soon.


54 posted on 12/05/2012 3:46:10 PM PST by TBall
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To: Some Fat Guy in L.A.

Thankfully I got a lot of fish and venison in my freezer for the winter.


55 posted on 12/05/2012 3:54:01 PM PST by TBall
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To: exit82

It is 6pm the post 6 and 7 are gone and I am still laughing from seeing this at 1 pm.


56 posted on 12/05/2012 4:07:16 PM PST by taterjay
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To: taterjay

I’m glad my boss wasn’t in the office today when I read this thread. I would have hated to have to explain why I was laughing so hard. (Although he would have thought it pretty funny too.)


57 posted on 12/05/2012 4:12:29 PM PST by muggs (Hope and Change = Hoax and Chains)
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To: exit82

Sheesh, I didn’t get to read either post 6 or 7. I needed a good laugh too.


58 posted on 12/05/2012 4:35:55 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: muggs

1130 pm and I am still laughing.


59 posted on 12/05/2012 9:42:58 PM PST by taterjay
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To: taterjay

Looks like they found #6...


60 posted on 12/06/2012 6:15:19 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: greeneyes

Read post 32 and figure it out.


61 posted on 12/06/2012 6:17:13 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: greeneyes

I missed it too. Darn.

I’ve figured out that he probably eats out every week and in his post he left out the preposition ‘with’. Apparently the context made the typo even funnier. I’m thinking he said something like there weren’t as many people there as there usually are. Darn - I wish somebody saved the it.


62 posted on 12/06/2012 6:31:26 AM PST by ladyjane (For the first time in my life I am not proud of my country.)
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To: ladyjane

Mr. B says to read post 32 to figure it out.


63 posted on 12/06/2012 8:41:47 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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