Skip to comments.GOLDMAN: Gold Is Going To $1200
Posted on 01/17/2013 10:52:41 AM PST by blam
GOLDMAN: Gold Is Going To $1200
January 17, 2013
The bank's central thesis is that the U.S. economic recovery finally takes off in 2013, and Goldman expects that to drive a selloff in the gold market as investors rotate away from traditional "safe-haven" investments.
At the time, the analysts wrote, "We lower our 3-, 6- and 12-mo gold price forecasts to $1,825/toz, $1,805/toz and $1,800/toz and introduce a $1,750/toz 2014 forecast. While we see potential for higher gold prices in early 2013, we see growing downside risks."
Now, Goldman has decided to up the ante a bit. Yesterday, its commodity analysts introduced a new call: gold at $1200 per ounce by 2018.
In a note to clients, Goldman analysts Christian Lelong, Max Layton, Damien Courvalin, Jeffrey Currie, and Roger Yuan write, "Assuming a linear increase in US real rates back to 2.0% by 2018, as proxied by the 10-year US TIPS yield, we expect that gold prices will continue to trend lower over the coming five years and introduce our long-term gold price of $1,200/oz from 2018 forward."
What about monetary demand for gold and inflation, though?
The analysts answer that question:
Beyond real interest rates, fluctuations in the monetary demand for gold also exert an influence on gold prices. Our forecast currently embeds physical gold demand from ETFs and central banks growing in 2013 at the 2009-2012 pace, with ETF purchases slowing in 2014. In our forecast, this steady monetary gold demand helps slow the decline in prices over the coming years. Given the risk around this assumption, we also considered alternative paths for physical gold demand but found that, while not negligible, the impact of gold prices to stronger or weaker monetary demand for gold remains modest compared to the influence exerted by real rates
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Business Insider is the liberal Democrat version of IBD, right?
Therefore, they cannot be trusted.
'the U.S. economic recovery finally takes off in 2013'
Thanks for the laugh. The world has changed. The chickens are coming home to roost for a while.
Gee...Goldman wouldn’t have an ulterior motive for this sound advice, would they?
I don’t suppose crude oil will go to $65 or $70?
Although I see no connection — would lower prices have anything to do with Bundesbank repatriating their Gold from US?
The greatest goldbugs: Bush and Obama.
Well, at least they didn't base their thesis on space aliens.
U.S. economic recovery finally takes off in 2013...
Beyond real interest rates, fluctuations in the monetary demand for gold also exert an influence on gold prices. Our forecast currently embeds physical gold demand from ETFs and central banks growing in 2013 at the 2009-2012 pace, with ETF purchases slowing in 2014.
Beyond real interest rates? Real interest rates!? What real interest rates? Selling T-bills to the Fed. Yeah, that's the ticket. QE infinity will take care of that, right?
Purchases of real gold slowing in 2014, right? And Germany wants it's gold back?
I'm going to sue VCU for teaching me macro economics all wrong. My degree is worth poop, apparently.
Bottom line, the Goldman analyst contradicts himself more than 0bama does.
‘the U.S. economic recovery finally takes off in 2013’...?
Bullshit!...unless it’s based on walkers and canes for baby boomers!
If they are successful in accomplishing that strategy, then they will BUY UP all the available gold and when the SHTF, and gold rises dramatically, they'll be in "high cotton."
I’ve seen some folks saying that increased drilling and oil and gas production (Bakken, Eagle Ford, etc etc), done in spite of the current president, is going to drive an economic turn-around which he will take credit for.
While I’ll be glad for any prosperity it will annoy me to see him get the credit. Something like watching him do a photo-op in Cushing taking credit for the Keystone at the same time he was trying to kill the project.
LOL! This is satire, right? If gold goes to $1200, I’ll eat my shorts. But in any case, to all who can afford to buy, BUT IT if it does.
I thought Goldman did something like this before. They said that real estate derivatives were the way to go in 2007, meanwhile they shorted them just before the crash.
The dollar and all fiat currencies are the real bubble.
While gold is going down, I'd move my ever more worthless dollars into gold.
Please note that -- soon -- dollars won't be "money."
What, for instance, is a Confederate Dollar really worth today?