Japanese elderly now outnumber children.
Posted on 04/20/2013 3:49:03 AM PDT by NYer
Japanese elderly now outnumber children.
TOKYO, April 19, 2013 (LifeSiteNews.com) - Japan is seeing the most rapid decline in population of any country on earth, according to the World Population Data Sheet produced by the U.S. Population Reference Bureau.
A newly released report on demographic trends by the Japanese government reveals that Japan's population continues to plummet, and that 2012 saw the biggest population drop since record-keeping began in the 1950s.
On October 1, 2012, the country’s population was estimated at 127,515,000, down 0.22 percent from the previous year, said the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in a April 16 report.
Japan’s birth rate, which is well below replacement level, combined with an ever-increasing number of deaths, has resulted in the country’s population falling by a record 284,000 in 2012.
According to the report, the number of births in 2012 fell to a record low of 1,033,000, down by 18,000 from 2011.
The report pointed out that 40 of Japan's 47 prefectures saw a significant population decline, and Fukushima - the area of the nuclear disaster due to the 2011 tsunami - ranked highest with a plunge of 1.41 percent.
The government report also showed that Japanese society continues to age, with people aged 65 or over estimated at 30,793,000, up 1,041,000 from the previous year.
They now account for a record high 24.1 percent of the total population.
The report also stated that, for the first time, the elderly outnumber children aged 14 and under.
The island has a projected population of 120 million in 2025, but only 95 million by 2050.
The Japanese government's estimates predict that by 2060, Japan will have 87 million people, while the number of people 65 or older will nearly double, to 40 percent.
According to Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, in 1995 the working age population hit its high point at 87 million. In 2004 this had dropped to 85.08 million, and by the end of 2010 stood at 81.07 million.
The agency estimates that by 2060 the national work force of people between ages 15 and 65 is expected to shrink to about half of the total population.
"The bare facts are shocking enough," remarked Steven Mosher of the Population Research Institute.
"Japan’s fertility rate, at 1.1 children per woman, has never been lower, and it is still falling from year to year," he said. "Japan already has the oldest population in the world and, with virtually no immigration, there appears to be no way out of the looming democide. The elderly will die, and there will be fewer people and far fewer workers in the Home Islands in the years to come."
He concluded, "The solution is obvious, but the Japanese people have to want more children for there to be more children."
Considering how gorgeous Japanese women are, by and large, and what excellent wives they make, all this is a little surprising, IMO.
Since decreased population results in decreased consumption which leads to decreased production which usually translates into decreased poluttion, I feel some kind of Al Gore International Green Climate Improvement Award coming up for Japan.
The USA has eliminated 55 million taxpayers by killing them in the womb, while the burden of medical care and social security for the elderly grows more burdensome by the day. Government based on buying votes is doomed to failure.
Everything is super expensive there, housing is a joke. I wonder how could they afford to have children earlier.
***Government based on buying votes is doomed to failure.***
Also playing God by artificially manipulating procreation through contraception, abortion, homosexual coupling, IVF, rental wombs, eggs and sperm donation.
In a few decades there will be no ‘natural’ families. Humans will be required to register sperm and eggs to eliminate ‘incestuous’ pregnancies, similar to the former ‘blood tests’ for a marriage license.
“Considering how gorgeous Japanese women are, by and large, and what excellent wives they make, all this is a little surprising, IMO.”
I’ve followed this over the years. Japanese women are westernizing. They don’t like the traditional submissive role and have been forgoing marriage so they won’t be forced into that role. Also, I’d guess the expense of having children in an increasingly wealth obsessed world may play a role. A family of four living in less space than my living room doesn’t sound appealing. Oh, and that space would be worth more than all of my assets put together.
I suspect that Japan will lead the world in robot design and production. Eventually, there will be a handful of Japanese and they’ll control robot workers and a robotic military.
The population of America has more than doubled in my lifetime.
One modern robot working 24/7 can compensate for a whole lot of workers producing widgets. The idea of paying unsupportable levels to pensioners and healthcare providers by increasing population with more workers who do not produce enough to cover both their own and their parents entitlements deserves the name, "Ponzi scheme."
must be all the cosplay.
” A family of four living in less space than my living room doesn’t sound appealing. Oh, and that space would be worth more than all of my assets put together.”
Domo for your excursion into super hyperbole ...
And they will bring in legions of semi skilled healthcare workers from the Caribbean and Africa to look after their old timers.
Eh, if they don’t use robots.
Their population will even out and become relatively stable. Population decline is not necessarily a bad thing
Import some muslims, it is working well in Europe, if population is your main concern.
Japan’s population is decreasing because its society is rife with hedonism and the younger generations are more interested in the pursuit of pleasure than the responsibility of family. They also have very restrictive immigration policies that limit their ability to increase their population.
Yea, Japan! The world is overpopulated. I hope the rest of Asia and Africa will quickly follow Japan's lead, because all those children are taking up space that could be filled with something I like better, and they're using up resources that really ought to go to better people, like me. (/Gates Foundation)
I’ve thought about this for some time, I believe that all so-called first world nations are heading this way. And it’s because of a number of factors.
There are more “things” vying for people’s attention besides sex.
Pornography - It has the tendency to make sex with your spouse seem not as exciting as what you just watched on the screen. This applies to singles trying to find a spouse also, no one seems to come up to the same standards as what is on the screen.
Taxes and cost of living - It’s become more and more expensive to have a spouse let alone have children.
Perceived value of children - In an agrarian or pre-industrial society children have immediate value to families as “free” labor. In a “modern” society children are mostly just “there” as both Mother and Father work to bring in enough money for food, shelter and “things”.
I’m not counting the Welfare class in this, Children in that class mean Ka-ching for their mothers. Females are valued for that and Males are just sperm-donors or in Jail.
(Huge Generalization there, folks).
Robotics and Automation in General also mean that workers at all levels are less needed.
So if you follow all of these trends, then in a Post-industrial society you should see population collapse occur and then rebound to the level required to sustain that society.
In the case of a total civilization crash, you should see Children once again valued and needed as labor as “someone” has to work the fields to bring in the crops for food.
I’m sure there are lots of other factors but these are the ones that came to mind the quickest for this post.
It’s much more likely the insane over-crowding is the problem. Much more likely.
And I’ve said before that Japans restrictive immigration policies are “Smarter than most all of the Western nations...combined.
“Pornography - It has the tendency to make sex with your spouse seem not as exciting as what you just watched on the screen. “
There was a biologist on Seth Shotak’s radio program almost 10 years ago who wrote a book on this subject and more.
He was interesting.
(” A family of four living in less space than my living room doesn’t sound appealing. Oh, and that space would be worth more than all of my assets put together.”
Domo for your excursion into super hyperbole ...)
In Osaka Metropolitan Area:
The average price of new condominium units fell by 3.2% to JPY457,000 (US$5,882) per sq. m. during the year to August 2012.
The average price of existing condominium units fell 1.6% to JPY239,000 (US$3,076) per sq. m. over the same period.
My living room measures 9.14m x 5.79m= 52.93 m2 52.93 m2 x $5,882 = $311,343.
My house is a double-wide with a kick 18 miles outside of town on 6 acres of woods located on a lake. I bought it in 2005 for $148,000. It is now worth perhaps $90,000. (The roads to it are dirt, which drives down the price. Also, my neighbors hang deer from trees and make their own sausages.)
Add together all of my assets, including my depleted 401k and we’d be within a few bucks of the price of a modest apartment in Osaka.
If, however, we go to Tokyo, all bets are off:
In Tokyo Metropolitan Area:
The average price of new condominium units dropped 5.1% y-o-y to JPY691,000 (US$8,894) per square metre (sq. m.) in August 2012, based on figures released by the Land Institute of Japan (LIJ).
The average price of existing condominium units dropped 3.3% to JPY380,000 (US$4,891) per sq. m. during the year to August 2012, its 14 consecutive month of annual price falls.
The average price of detached houses was down by 1.7% to JPY31,770,000 (US$408,901) over the same period.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/japan/Price-History
Frankly, I love my house. I wouldn’t want to live in the city if you gave me the apartment.
If you consider the cost of the apartment in Tokyo, how would you raise two children and keep up the rent? That has to be a big part of their demographic bust. However, like all problems, you can’t focus on just one aspect and expect the problem to go away.
Keigu,
Gen.blather
From the large number turning 65, it appears that Japan has a large crop of boomers too.
I’m not a boomer but my younger sister is. I always think that is a mystery
-——I suspect that Japan will lead the world in robot design and production-——
Don’t they already?
This provides an interesting train of thought.
Robots can actually be taxed and then since they don’t retire, not require pensions. We learn from lego that robots, serious robots, can be assembled from a collection of standardized parts. That means that when one task is complete, the pieces can be disassembled and those not worn can be reused.
Philippines
“-——I suspect that Japan will lead the world in robot design and production-——
Don’t they already?”
They do. But I had in mind the science fiction AI type robots dreamed up by Robert Heinlein. Also, I expect they’ll be the first to deploy fully unmanned, autonomous military equipment to protect themselves from the Chinese. (Nobody else would risk it, but they’ll have no choice.)
Our population has doubled and our freedoms have halved.
History shows us no example of a successful society with a declining population.
Nope, nothing occurs in a vacuumm. What you’ll have is liberals and hedonists avoiding parenting and the religious embracing it. The religious see porn as a negative and children as a positive and are willing to live with the consequences.
Countries like America will see a divergence of population - poor and ignorant incentivized to have children via the benefits program and the religious who have children because it is God’s will - net, net that’s what you will get over the next few generations.
You are correct, and I suspect that that is the reason no Freeper has commented. Your conclusion cannot be challenged.
In my lifetime, too, America’s population also has more than doubled, and given the social situation that we are currently living under—which I recognize as not being your point—not for the better. I much prefer the United States that I grew up in.
Name a time and place in history when population decline was beneficial.
There is no evidence that stability of any sort comes after TFR drops below 2.1. My money is that this is the beginning of the end for Japan. The geographical place will remain but the powerhouse economy will not.
pornography...nature’s birth control on a large scale
Americans may have killed 55 million, but what about all the babies of the babies that were never born?
“History shows us no example of a successful society with a declining population.” - NOT SO FAST
The Black Death - 1350s brought forth a huge change in Europe. The end of the feudal system, the beginning of the Renaissance. - Guilds (Unions)
In general a re-awakening of human development
The thing with the “boomer” concept. It is true the birth rate after WWII rose. However when you look at the historical graph of birth rates going back to 1900’s to today, you see that this rise was merely back to historic birth rate levels. The real issue was the subsequent collapse in birth rate immediately after the 50’s. Thats the real demographic issue impacting everything from Social Security to realestate stagnation.
So to make sure I fully and completely misunderstand and twist your words..... You are suggesting that the best path forward for us is a massive plague with 30-50% death of the population ?
I know you aren’t just having fun.......
Seriously though the original quote should have been phrased “declining population due to birth rate”. But for the high birth rates during the period you highlight Europe would have been a wasteland.
I heard that!!!
Yeah, used to live in Japan for a while back in my younger days.
It was a great place to be young...
As a general rule - Humans tend to be resilient and react “rationally” to any given situation.
We also tend to hyperventilate.
History has a flow to it - Some ups some downs. This time is no different. Yes, there will be some difficult times and things will be different.
The story of life
I was there when the dollar was 250 yen. Not too bad; still, I’d always advise anyone who’s thinking of going, even now, just to get up and go.
It’s a great country and livig there is a great experience.
I have to agree.
Dad was stationed there and we traveled back and forth on MSTS (the Army’s navy.) I made six Pacific crossings 1951-1961.
Good Points, Thank you for them.
“Government based on buying votes is doomed to failure.”
Only after taking the whole country down with it. There is no way our current downward spiral will reverse itself before the big crash—too many takers, too many people who want their share before the next taker, too many people who lack a sound moral foundation, the dominant daily communication of “me first”, instant gratitude, I deserve it, all feed into this downward spiral. Just prepare is all we can do at this point. And I’m an optimist.
“Population decline is not necessarily a bad thing.”
It is when it’s deeply involved in a ponzi scheme. :-)
How do I get on that ping list?
Nice shade of blue there.
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