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Analysis - No good military options for U.S. in Syria
Reuters ^ | 4-27-2013 | Phil Stewart and Peter Apps

Posted on 04/27/2013 6:20:01 PM PDT by haffast

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite President Barack Obama's pledge that Syria's use of chemical weapons is a "game changer" for the United States, he is unlikely to turn to military options quickly and would want allies joining him in any intervention.

Possible military choices range from limited one-off missile strikes from ships - one of the less complicated scenarios - to bolder operations like carving out no-fly safe zones.

One of the most politically unpalatable possibilities envisions sending tens of thousands of U.S. forces to help secure Syrian chemical weapons.

Obama has so far opposed limited steps, like arming anti-government rebels, but pressure to deepen U.S. involvement in Syria's civil war has grown since Thursday's White House announcement that President Bashar al-Assad likely used chemical weapons.

After fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Pentagon is wary of U.S. involvement in Syria. The president's top uniformed military adviser, General Martin Dempsey, said last month he could not see a U.S. military option with an "understandable outcome" there.

"There's a lot of analysis to be done before reaching any major decisions that would push U.S. policy more in the direction of military options," a senior U.S. official told Reuters.

That caution is understandable, given the experience of Iraq where the United States went to war based on bad intelligence about weapons of mass destruction. The Pentagon has made repeated warnings of the enormous risks and limitations of using American military might in Syria's civil war.

snip

(Excerpt) Read more at uk.news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: benghazi; gas; hagel; israel; obama; oil; peaceandsecurity; pipelines; waronterror
Turkey becomes partner of China, Russia-led security bloc
Reuters ^ | 4-26-2013 | Dmitry Solovyov
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3012962/posts

Syria Could Crash The U.S. Dollar (UUP)
July 9th, 2012

excerpts:

"One or both of these doomsday catalysts for a U.S. lock down took a giant leap forward in France, Friday. Cold War-like comments made at the “Friends of Syria” conference in Paris by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton toward Russia and China strongly suggest that a showdown between the former Cold War rivals, now to include China, is on. The prize: oil—and by implications the future of the U.S. petrodollar standard and the American way of life.

“I don’t think Russia and China believe they are paying any price at all – nothing at all – for standing up on behalf of the Assad regime,” Clinton told an audience comprised of delegations from more than 60 nations. “The only way that will change is if every nation represented here directly and urgently makes it clear that Russia and China will pay a price . . .”

Auspiciously, delegations from Moscow and Beijing did not attend the meeting.

The U.S. Secretary of State went on to accuse Russia, China and Iran of supporting Syria’s Assad regime economically and militarily, and called upon other nations to comply with UN sanctions levied upon Syria—sanctions which would also include refusing oil shipments from Syria’s vital economic support and trusted ally, Iran.

snip

"Though, Russia and China have already agreed to a peaceful resolution to the Syrian civil war, signing off on the Security Council plan drafted by former-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, it’s more likely that Moscow and Beijing are playing politics of cooperation to buy more time for the Assad regime. Russia and China do not want regime change in yet another Middle Eastern country for a host of economic and political reasons, of which, the primary one is to stop the U.S. from controlling the region’s oil supplies to Russia’s ally and co-founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China."

Authors John Barry and Dan Ephron of a Sept. 2004 Newsweek article, titled, War-Gaming the Mullahs: The U.S. weighs the price of a pre-emptive strike explain that Syria and Iran have been targets of interest of the U.S. for quite some time, as Washington under the George W. Bush Administration had known that a day would come when the U.S. and China would bang heads for precious crude supplies in the Middle East. Whether it’s the Obama Administration or another neocon U.S. president in control of the executive branch, the petrodollar standard must be defended in the Middle East. The Iranian/Syrian alliance has stood in the way of total U.S. dominance in the region, but now the matter has become urgent following Iran’s announcement in Feb. 2012, that it has broken ranks in the petrodollar scheme. It now will not accept the dollar as payment for Persian oil.
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/07/09/syria-could-crash-the-u-s-dollar-uup/

1 posted on 04/27/2013 6:20:01 PM PDT by haffast
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To: haffast

No worries. Obama will just re-draw that red line!


2 posted on 04/27/2013 6:22:30 PM PDT by JaguarXKE (Welcome to the new America.)
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To: haffast

Yes there is a good military option, keep our military out of Syria.


3 posted on 04/27/2013 6:24:31 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do ithat when I have a fire.)
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To: driftdiver

And cut off the funds and arms we’re sending as well.


4 posted on 04/27/2013 6:27:20 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: driftdiver

I agree, stay the hell out, let them fight their own battles


5 posted on 04/27/2013 6:28:19 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heroes have always been cowboys)
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To: JaguarXKE

6 posted on 04/27/2013 6:29:16 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: haffast
I do not want us to get involved in Syria. For one thing, I think both sides are bad, but Assad (though a monster) is not a jihadist monster.

That being said, the media has been telling me for about a year that Assad is about to fall --

He's about to fall! Well, he's rallying and may not fall this week.
He's about to fall! Well, he's rallying and may not fall this week.
He's about to fall! Well, he's rallying and may not fall this week.

In such a situation, exactly how much involvement from the US would really be needed to turn the tide? Now, if we wanted to pacify the entire country and then rebuild the entire country, that would take some serious effort -- but I never understand why we think we should be in that particular business.

7 posted on 04/27/2013 6:32:19 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The ballot box is a sham. Nothing will change until after the war.)
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To: JaguarXKE

8 posted on 04/27/2013 6:35:29 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: driftdiver

The U.S. has been doing arms deals with other arab countries. I don’t see any of them trying to lead a charge into Syria to stop Assad. Where did those 20,000 M16s stolen in Kuwait go? I suspect Israel’s greatest fear is that chemical weapons will fall into rebel hands. If they haven’t already.


9 posted on 04/27/2013 6:35:30 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: haffast
Russia and China do not want regime change in yet another Middle Eastern country for a host of economic and political reasons, of which, the primary one is to stop the U.S. from controlling the region’s oil supplies to Russia’s ally and co-founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China."

The actual primary one is that the rebels are worse than the Assad regime - a fact recognized by everybody in the world except the head-in-the-clouds US Government.

10 posted on 04/27/2013 6:39:07 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: JaguarXKE

11 posted on 04/27/2013 6:40:33 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: haffast

Duh.

I could have told them that without spending money.
Access is limited (though not as badly as Afghanistan). It is a client state to rival powers who will take a dim view of our intervention. It is a heck of drive from the coast to Damascus. We don’t have any allies in the country and there is no side on whose behalf it is worth intervening.

So when can I get check?


12 posted on 04/27/2013 6:42:26 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: haffast

Good thing we didn’t do something stupid like declaring a “Red Line.”


13 posted on 04/27/2013 6:42:55 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
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To: bigheadfred

Hello Bigheadfred.....I agree...BO won’t do more than maybe give more Armor etc. However, he’ll wait til the UN or some other country takes the lead...Like France did in Libya....he will not soil his hands otherwise on this.

Israels border could get hotter though...already warming up.


14 posted on 04/27/2013 6:43:50 PM PDT by caww
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To: haffast

There is one good option

Nuke Mecca and end that religion once & for all


15 posted on 04/27/2013 6:45:13 PM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: caww

obama will jump in if the saudi’s tell him he has to but in the meantime obama is afraid of Putin.


16 posted on 04/27/2013 6:45:56 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: Mr. Jeeves

I agree 100 percent! If we give it to the rebels, they will turn Syria into a training grounds for terrorism against the West. There is no question that Syria has a nuclear capability, or is working in that direction. What happens if the rebels get a hold of Syria’s nuclear technology?

If Syria falls to the rebels, this will be one more stake in the ground against Israel. Soon that stake will go to Israel’s heart.


17 posted on 04/27/2013 6:47:00 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: JaguarXKE

Obama’s word is about as good as his golf game. He lies.


18 posted on 04/27/2013 6:49:19 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: haffast

Just leave it alone. Why must more of our young die or be mutilated for a politicians purse. If the Syrians want to kill themselves, let them.


19 posted on 04/27/2013 6:51:38 PM PDT by foundedonpurpose (It's time for a fundamental restoration, of our country's principles!)
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To: haffast

Notice how close Syria is to Israel Turkey, Iraq and Iran. Maybe this is Iran's ticket to the Mediterranean through northern Iraq.

20 posted on 04/27/2013 6:52:58 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: haffast

Better to save our own military strength and materiel for work in North Korea or Iran.


21 posted on 04/27/2013 7:19:05 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Bump.


22 posted on 04/27/2013 7:20:56 PM PDT by upchuck (To the faceless, jack-booted government bureaucrat who just scanned this post: SCREW YOU!)
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To: JaguarXKE

0Bamma’s a coward! Nuff said!


23 posted on 04/27/2013 7:21:58 PM PDT by Ranger Warrior ("To stand in silence when they should be protesting makes cowards out of men." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: jonrick46
The pipeline connecting Israeli tycoons, Mideast politicians and daily consumers
By Avi Bar-Eli | Mar.31, 2013 | 12:45 AM
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/the-pipeline-connecting-israeli-tycoons-mideast-politicians-and-daily-consumers.premium-1.512687

The Geopolitics of Israel’s Offshore Gas Reserves
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs ^ | 4-3-2013 | David Wurmser
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3005392/posts




24 posted on 04/27/2013 7:27:05 PM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: haffast
Interesting reads, but consider the sources:

War-Gaming the Mullahs
The U.S. weighs the price of a pre-emptive strike
Newsweek 2004
http://www.911jobforums.com/f66/war-gaming-mullahs-35149-print/

If U.S. Troops Fight WWIII, Who Fights the Coming American Civil War?
Posted on September 27, 2012
By Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul
http://survivalistinvestor.com/if-u-s-troops-fight-wwiii-who-fights-the-coming-american-civil-war/31681

25 posted on 04/27/2013 7:33:14 PM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: haffast

If the Chief Panty Waist had responded when they crossed the first “red line”, it would have been simple.

We told them not to enter the storage location.

We should have had a MOAB on standby and used it when they entered the compound.

But....that was just before the election, you see.......


26 posted on 04/27/2013 7:46:45 PM PDT by G Larry (Darkness Hates the Light)
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Help the Syrian Christians with refugee visas, most to Europe, then to Australia , USA, Canada. Let the rest have at it. Asad’s crowd is no worse than the rest. The whole region is not worth the blood of one GI.


27 posted on 04/27/2013 7:47:30 PM PDT by Godwin1
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To: jonrick46
Israel and the US don't want the competition.

Iran-Syria Gas Pipe to Run Through Iraq
By Chana Ya'ar - 2/20/2013, 3:00 PM

"Iraq has approved plans to run a natural gas pipeline through its territory from Iran to Syria."

U.S. brushes off Iran-Iraq-Syria gas line
Nov. 20, 2012 at 7:26 AM
excerpted:

"The U.S. government said plans by Iran to build a natural gas pipeline through Iraq to Syria may run into problems with economic sanctions."

"Victoria Nuland, a spokeswoman for the U.S. State Department, brushed off the report, saying Washington has seen similar reports on the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline "six or seven or 10 or 15 times before, and it never seems to materialize."

"I would simply say that the construction of any kind of an Iranian-Syrian pipeline could potentially raise sanctions issues under U.S. law on either Iran or Syria, including for international entities who might decide to participate in it either by financing or by construction," she said.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/11/20/US-brushes-off-Iran-Iraq-Syria-gas-line/UPI-36621353414380/#ixzz2RRMiBd8v

The longer the US and Israel can delay and disrupt Syrian to Iran pipeline, the closer Israel will be to having their natural gas and oil production online with sales to Europe (2015-16?).

Israel will price their oil in USD like our other "friends" in the region, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait etc, keeping the "Petro-Dollar" system afloat. A win-win for the US. Plus we can sell 'em stuff. Everybody happy happy. (Except maybe the Russians and China)

28 posted on 04/27/2013 7:53:51 PM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: haffast
Correction:

Iran-Syria Gas Pipe to Run Through Iraq
By Chana Ya'ar - 2/20/2013, 3:00 PM

"Iraq has approved plans to run a natural gas pipeline through its territory from Iran to Syria."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/165466#.UXlfiUp1pkg

29 posted on 04/27/2013 7:59:10 PM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: G Larry

Timing is everything! (Mine sucks)


30 posted on 04/27/2013 8:01:13 PM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: bigheadfred

Say what you will about Putin , but he is a MAN , unlike that poser in the WH .


31 posted on 04/27/2013 8:06:11 PM PDT by sushiman
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To: haffast
Israel Grants First Golan Heights Oil Drilling License To Powerful US Company
Business Insider ^ | Feb. 22, 2013, 2:45 PM | Michael Kelley
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2990546/posts?page=1


32 posted on 04/27/2013 8:08:45 PM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: haffast
One of the worst results is The Syrian rebellion has spilled into Iraq. The Syrian rebellion has caused 120,000 Syrian refugees to enter Iraq in the Kurdistan Region. The Sunni-led civil war against the Syrian government is now spilling into Iraq. It is causing a strong Shia reaction, not only against the Syrian Sunnis but also against the Iraqi Sunnis. So far the Iraqi government is controlling this upheaval. However, should Iran capitalize on the situation and further destabilize Iraq for their purposes, there will be consequences that will affect the entire region.

The pipeline situation may be a good motivation for Iran to acquire Iraqi soil in the Kurdistan Region (see map below). Iran needs new access to oil energy. But, it is not the only motivation. I can see Iran expanding its power through northern Iraq through Syria, to the Mediterranean for port access. That would give Iran military access for more sinister efforts.


33 posted on 04/27/2013 9:08:43 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: jonrick46

Remember the good old days when a President couldn’t commit US military forces without the prior consent of the people’s representatives in the Congress?

Quaint idea, that...


34 posted on 04/27/2013 10:11:42 PM PDT by CondorFlight (I)
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To: bigheadfred

...”obama is afraid of Putin”....

You can say that again!..and Putin knows it.


35 posted on 04/28/2013 12:10:41 AM PDT by caww
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To: ClearCase_guy

Here’s the one truism, the Marxist Media in all areas is lying, 100% guaranteed. The entire Political establishment is 100% fraud. Don’t vote it only encourages them.


36 posted on 04/28/2013 4:53:04 AM PDT by iopscusa (El Vaquero. (SC Lowcountry Cowboy))
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To: jonrick46
The pipeline situation may be a good motivation for Iran to acquire Iraqi soil in the Kurdistan Region (see map below). Iran needs new access to oil energy. But, it is not the only motivation. I can see Iran expanding its power through northern Iraq through Syria, to the Mediterranean for port access. That would give Iran military access for more sinister efforts.

I'm not a ME expert, nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn last night.

Iran is not "seeking access to oil energy", it wants to continue selling the oil and natural gas it has to Europe.

The US and its allies (Europe) consider Iran a state supporter of terrorism and has applied economic sanctions on them to choke the ever loving nuclear crap out of them. Iran's economy is a mess. Their people are suffering.

Until Iran gives up the nukes, Europe's not buying, and not a market for Iran's oil. Iran has no need for a pipeline right now, and no funds to build it.

The uses and limits of Iran sanctions By David Frum, CNN Contributor
updated 10:35 AM EDT, Mon October 15, 2012
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/15/opinion/frum-iran-sanctions

A History Of U.S. Sanctions Against Iran
January 17, 2012
http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/alliesenemies/a/A-History-Of-U-S-Sanctions-Against-Iran.htm

Israel is our largest export market in the region and our closest ally. We'll $ide with them and promote the development of their newly found natural ga$/oil wealth.

37 posted on 04/28/2013 5:53:57 AM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: driftdiver

“Yes there is a good military option, keep our military out of Syria.”

May the fleas of a thousand dogs be upon you. You just stole what I was going to say. Even better if they’re using cehmical weaons on each other. The Muzzies will just come to hate each other more than before and keep on killing each other. All that does is make us safer.


38 posted on 04/28/2013 6:51:57 AM PDT by libstripper
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To: yldstrk

It’s not like Muslims are killing Christians over there. What the hell is the hurry to stop one of Israel’s neighbors from destroying itself?


39 posted on 04/28/2013 6:53:55 AM PDT by csmusaret (America is more divided today , not because of the problems we face but because of Obama's solutions)
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To: haffast

Iran’s electricity production is growing about eight percent a year. It has struggled to keep up with demand and has used that problem to justify its nuclear program. It does have a large amount of oil and natural gas, but would rather sell it to other countries. So, a pipeline would make sense for such exports. My idea that the pipeline would bring oil and natural gas into Iran was mistaken.

Iran says it wants to make use of nuclear technology for electricity. The Iranian government argues that seven gigawatts of nuclear power generation would free up 190 million barrels per year of oil, equivalent to 13 percent of the country’s current production, or $7 billion annually (depending on what the market price is). However, if Iran would put more investment in its fossil fuel resources, it would meet its energy needs as well as its export supply in a way that is more economical than a reliance on nuclear energy. Also, Iran does not calculate the fact of its limited Uranium capacity. It will soon run out of Uranium and will need to import enough to meet its needs.

I now see the pipeline running through Iraq and into Syria as a strategic component to Iran’s future energy market.


40 posted on 04/28/2013 7:33:09 AM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: jonrick46

Ran across this this morning, thought you’d be interested:

EXCLUSIVE! Benghazi GUN-RUNNING & The Russia, China, Iran, Syria PIPELINE
by Chip Jones on November 16, 2012
http://cleowaller.blogspot.com/2013/03/exclusive-benghazi-gun-running-russia.html


41 posted on 04/29/2013 7:00:02 AM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: haffast

http://conservativereport.org/russian-pipeline-gun-running-benghazi/

42 posted on 04/29/2013 7:08:34 AM PDT by haffast (Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. -Abe Lincoln)
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To: haffast

I think we have homed into the story behind the story.

This is getting good.


43 posted on 04/29/2013 9:27:50 AM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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