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How Romney could have won the popular vote (It all came down to turnout)
Daily Caller ^ | 06/01/2013

Posted on 06/01/2013 5:31:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

White and Hispanic turnout fell from 2004 to 2012, according to a new study by the Center for Immigration Studies based on newly-released U.S. Census data.

Had turnout equaled what it was in 2004, 4.7 million more whites would have voted in 2012, of which 4.2 million were not college graduates, according to the study.

Obama received five million more votes than Romney.

“As Republicans think about how they can expand their voter base, the new data suggest that one of their biggest problems in the last presidential election was that so many less-educated whites sat home,” said Steven Camarota, CIS’ director of research and author of the report. CIS favors low levels of legal immigration

“These voters, who have been hit hard by the recession, have traditionally supported Republicans,” Camarota said. “It seems likely that by supporting the Schumer-Rubio amnesty, GOP legislators would further alienate these voters.”

To win the popular vote with female support, Romney would have needed four extra percentage points of the women’s vote (48 percent rather than the 44 he actually received), with each percentage point equating to 714,000 votes.

To earn the popular vote with blacks and Hispanics, Romney would have needed an extra 15 or 23 percentage points, respectively. But the statistics regarding whites demonstrated how closely the Republican candidate came to a plurality win.

With one percentage point of the white vote equating to 980,000 votes, Romney would have won the popular vote with a mere three percent greater turnout.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: damnlies; elections; flawed; flawedanalysis; obama; popularvote; potus; romney; romney2012; statistics
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1 posted on 06/01/2013 5:31:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Coulda Woulda Shoulda


2 posted on 06/01/2013 5:36:30 AM PDT by D1X1E
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To: SeekAndFind

Mr. RomneyCARE was mute because Obama was not a conservative.


3 posted on 06/01/2013 5:38:38 AM PDT by Diogenesis
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To: Diogenesis

Obamacare was moot because Romney was not a conservative...same difference.


4 posted on 06/01/2013 5:42:02 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: D1X1E

Ancient history but we can count on the GOPe to try and repeat it.


5 posted on 06/01/2013 5:43:59 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: SeekAndFind

The GOP has to run a real Conservative and not a POS.


6 posted on 06/01/2013 5:44:19 AM PDT by bmwcyle (People who do not study history are destine to believe really ignorant statements.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Romney would have won the popular vote with a mere three percent greater turnout.

Which is where the IRS suppression of the Tea Parties was critical. If not at the top of the ticket, undoubtedly for some of the close Senate races.

7 posted on 06/01/2013 5:45:20 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: SeekAndFind
How Romney could have won the popular vote

That is, of course, if there was such a thing.

8 posted on 06/01/2013 5:49:17 AM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Hey RATs! Control your murdering freaks.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Certainly there were other factors (such as IRS voter suppression) but when an unappealing candidate loses an election, it's probably best to acknowledge that he or she could not attract sufficient support, and it is probably best to ask, "What would make our next candidate more attractive?"

For the record: I voted for Romney. He was the last RINO I will ever vote for. From now on, give me a Conservative or I stay home. The party has an obligation to me -- I do not have an obligation to the party.

9 posted on 06/01/2013 5:50:37 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: SeekAndFind

Liberal/RINO
Shyster
Mormon


10 posted on 06/01/2013 5:52:24 AM PDT by daniel boob
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To: SeekAndFind
We had about 4 million Republican voters die between 2004 and 2008, and again between 2008 and 2012. Democrats had about 5 million die in each period BUT they had a very successful voter registration drive in 2007 and rounded up an additional 12 millon or so voters to make up for the dead folks.

Republicans had success in 2011 when they got 5 million new Republican voters. The Democrats only found 250,000 more Democrat voters in 2011.

Republicans had nearly 100% turnout, as did the Democrats, in 2004, 2008 and 2012.

Remember, the key element in relative voting strength these days is the Baby Boomer Death Rate ~ IT'S UP BIG TIME!.

Those 90 million unregistered non voting adults have to be convinced to change their habits if you want new voters.

11 posted on 06/01/2013 5:52:59 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind
...Had turnout equaled what it was in 2004, 4.7 million more whites would have voted in 2012...Obama received five million more votes than Romney...

Shameless balderdash. Headline doesn't match content, but that won't matter to low-information types.

12 posted on 06/01/2013 5:53:06 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: bmwcyle

and say, Newt or Michelle Bachman had been the nominee, what do you think the margin would have been then?


13 posted on 06/01/2013 5:53:15 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: SeekAndFind

Bottom line: GOPe cannot rally poor and working-class whites. In an era of tribal politics, whites have to have a party, and they don’t.


14 posted on 06/01/2013 5:54:03 AM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: SeekAndFind
How Romney could have won the popular vote

he probably did...look at the voter fraud.

the only way a Republican wins anything in a national election is by a landslide, due to the ‘Chicago way’ of vote counting....

The only way a republican wins in a landslide is when the candidate is a CONSERVATIVE

15 posted on 06/01/2013 5:54:24 AM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: cripplecreek
but we can count on the GOPe to try and repeat it.

.

As sure as the sun rises in the east....

the big-tenters, Rovistas, Kristolites, and other RINOS will bring forth another lame candidate.

16 posted on 06/01/2013 5:58:05 AM PDT by ptsal (E)
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To: SeekAndFind

Look for the GOP to move even further left, to be more “in touch”.


17 posted on 06/01/2013 5:58:13 AM PDT by jughandle
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To: bmwcyle
The GOP has to run a real Conservative and not a POS.

Even making the choice between a "moderate" and a jihadi/packer/communist was a no-brainer.

The no brain, stay-at-home "conservatives" are just as guilty as the RAT-mafia for giving us four more years of Obamanation!

We may never recover...thanks a lot!

18 posted on 06/01/2013 5:58:59 AM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Hey RATs! Control your murdering freaks.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama’s PACs were running all those ads trashing Romney last spring, while the Romney PACs were being suppressed by the IRS. It fixed a false image of Romney in people’s minds that could not be erased after they were allowed to set in.


19 posted on 06/01/2013 6:02:46 AM PDT by Daveinyork (."Trusting government with power and money is like trusting teenaged boys with whiskey and car keys,)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

I voted for the A-hole you stupid POS. You need to get a life and bother some else.


20 posted on 06/01/2013 6:03:25 AM PDT by bmwcyle (People who do not study history are destine to believe really ignorant statements.)
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