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R.I.P. The Oil Drum 2005-2013 {Peak Oil proclaimers giving up}
Red State ^ | July 3rd, 2013 | Steve Maley

Posted on 07/05/2013 11:05:18 AM PDT by thackney

It was with some dismay that I read this morning of the impending end of The Oil Drum, perhaps the leading “peak oil” blog …

… due to scarcity of new content caused by a dwindling number of contributors. Despite our best efforts to fill this gap we have not been able to significantly improve the flow of high quality articles.

Because of this and the high expense of running the site, the board has unanimously decided that the best course of action is to convert the site to a static archive of previously published material as of 31st July 2013. We will continue to post articles up to this date. Afterwards any articles will be held as a public archive into the foreseeable future, so that others can continue to learn from the breadth and depth of knowledge published by our many authors, over the 8+ history of this remarkable volunteer effort.

- - - - -

The Oil Drum is the latest victim of the nation’s ongoing boom in oil and natural gas production. Peak Oil Theory has become, for lack of a better word, unsustainable. They’ve had some very talented, analytical and insightful writers over at The Oil Drum; the names of Gail the Actuary, Robert Rapier, JoulesBurn and Art Berman come to mind.

If I seem to be taking some delight in this development, I’m not. I consider the Oil Drum crowd to be compatriots and seekers of the truth of resource supply. The difference may be one of perspective: cup half empty vs. cup half full.

While I’ve spent considerable time and effort debunking Peak Oil Theory, I describe myself as something of a “Plateau Oiler”. What classic (King Hubbert-style) Peak Oil Theory neglects is the powerful effect of economics on the search for resources. Our current boom has sustained because we have had oil prices in the range of $100 per barrel for four years. There is almost a limitless resource base to convert to reserves. In my opinion, we can sustain today’s rates from high cost sources like the shale plays and deepwater. I remain skeptical about our ability to sharply increase supply. I’m not a cornucopian, and in that sense I share some common ground with the more reasonable Peak Oilers.

And even at today’s prices, oil is still a miracle fuel and a bargain. Europeans are willing to pay double and more the U.S. price of gasoline & diesel. Sure, they modify their use somewhat, but they are simply making an economic choice about its use.

Really, I take the end of The Oil Drum as something of a contrary indicator: when the last Peak Oil enthusiast throws in the towel, could calamity be just around the corner?


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: carbontax; energy; fail; kenyanbornmuzzie; oil; opec; peak; peakoil; unsustainable
An End to Eight Years of The Oil Drum
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10059
1 posted on 07/05/2013 11:05:18 AM PDT by thackney
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To: thackney

Peak oil or not, that site (pointed to by ether you or someone else on FreeRepublic) was invaluable to me during the BP spill. The onsite cameras and reporting were very, very good.


2 posted on 07/05/2013 11:09:24 AM PDT by SueRae (It isn't over. In God We Trust.)
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To: thackney

Insufferable leftists they were, too. Good riddance.


3 posted on 07/05/2013 11:11:32 AM PDT by Stalwart
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To: SueRae

I found it always a great source of technical data and explanation, combined with an never ending attempt to selective pick data to meet the conclusion they wanted.


4 posted on 07/05/2013 11:12:43 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

There will be “peak oil” someday — but it won’t be because of a shortage of supply. The “peak oil proclaimers” did not give due consideration to technological innovation. Recent innovations have dramatically increased supply; and others will, one day, lead to reduced demand for petroleum.


5 posted on 07/05/2013 11:20:37 AM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: thackney

higher prices in oil lead to investment in efficiency in its use - extending the amount of the economy that can still be efficiently served by oil, even if the supply does not keep growing as much/fast as in the past;

though current trends ARE extending to who-knows-when before supply will actually and considerably shrink - another result of higher prices; making more possible the investment in harder to reach supplies


6 posted on 07/05/2013 11:22:06 AM PDT by Wuli (qu)
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To: SueRae

Look on the bright side, this boom is going to starve OPEC to death. Hope those sheiks saved a few billion on the side because, they are going to get a rude lifesytle awakening come about 2015.


7 posted on 07/05/2013 11:30:39 AM PDT by catfish1957 (Face it!!!! The government in DC is full of treasonous bastards)
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To: thackney
Peak oil theory was literally one of the dumbest ideas ever presented. It assumed there was zero influence from human ingenuity, markets, supply and demand, technology, management flexibility, etc.

For decades it was gospel among all the experts in the government. I can't count how many times I have heard a powerful government bureaucrat say in a don't dare disagree with me voice, “We are running out of energy”.

8 posted on 07/05/2013 11:42:24 AM PDT by detective
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To: thackney
My “super smart” brother-in-law and I got into a discussion over energy a few months ago. He brought up “peak oil” and how he's happy we'll soon use up all the world's reserves. I've never laughed so hard. He has no idea there are HUGE HUGE reserves in the US and other places. These liberals live in cocoons where they have to try very hard to hear the other side while we hear it every day. Nonetheless, I pointed him in the right direction but I still don't think it's sinking in.
9 posted on 07/05/2013 11:46:13 AM PDT by ryan71 (The Partisans)
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To: thackney

Peak oil, bird flu, global warming, etc... All part part of the liberal arsenal, used to create ‘change’.


10 posted on 07/05/2013 11:48:39 AM PDT by tatown
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To: ryan71

If he is willing to do a very little bit of easy research, have him looked at the historical values of world oil reserves going back a few decades.

While producing more and more petroleum per year, the reserves have grown.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eia.gov%2Fpub%2Finternational%2Fiealf%2Fcrudeoilreserves.xls&ei=8BXXUZGOG47A4AOJiYD4BQ&usg=AFQjCNHtnCJByvTHNUXRfiDoXefYA7Sv8w&sig2=IKB7HpypMq3IymnDAtfWCw&bvm=bv.48705608,d.dmg

http://www.tititudorancea.com/z/ies_world_crude_oil_proved_reserves.htm


11 posted on 07/05/2013 11:56:26 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Peak Cheap Oil is another matter.


12 posted on 07/05/2013 12:08:53 PM PDT by Lorianne (fedgov, taxporkmoney)
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To: Lorianne

Absolutely.

There will be a time of peak oil. It will eventually be too expensive to compete with an alternative.

That my be due to rising oil price, or falling price of something else, or more likely, a bit of both.


13 posted on 07/05/2013 12:13:30 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

Oh. I thought they were going to stop making oil drums. I was worried for Caribbean steel drum bands.


14 posted on 07/05/2013 12:17:19 PM PDT by righttackle44 (Take scalps. Leave the bodies as a warning.)
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA
We are many many decades away from "peak oil".

However, peak cheap oil has been a reality for quite a while, and it's here to stay.

15 posted on 07/05/2013 2:01:18 PM PDT by Notary Sojac (I call it messin' with the kid.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks thackney.


16 posted on 07/05/2013 3:11:45 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: thackney

At some site I read that most of the time only about 3 to 4% of the oil from ‘pool’ is actually brought to the surface.

Is that true, or did I misread?


17 posted on 07/05/2013 3:55:25 PM PDT by Balding_Eagle (When America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years.)
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To: Balding_Eagle

I think 10~20% is typical without enhanced recovery methods like water or CO2 flood. Shale or other tight formations would likely be less.


18 posted on 07/06/2013 8:53:44 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: Lorianne

What is “cheap”? Adjusted for inflation oil is priced at about 1965 levels. That should make you stop an think what the Fed has done to this country. The ratio between gold and oil prices has remained within a close range for about 100 years.


19 posted on 07/06/2013 9:07:53 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$
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To: mad_as_he$$

“Cheap” is the masses being able to access it as they have become accustomed to.


20 posted on 07/06/2013 3:25:08 PM PDT by Lorianne (fedgov, taxporkmoney)
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To: detective

-— We are running out of energy”. -—

Being on the right side of the consensus, means never having to say you’re sorry.

I remember National Geographic, back in the late 70s, solemnly stating that the world would run out of oil by 2000.


21 posted on 07/07/2013 3:34:30 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: thackney
Peak Oil Theory has become, for lack of a better word, unsustainable.

Funny.

22 posted on 07/07/2013 3:40:12 AM PDT by Fzob (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock. Jefferson)
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To: detective

Peak oil is not a theory as oil production for the U.S. peaked back in 1970 and oil production per capita worldwide peaked back in 1979.


23 posted on 07/22/2013 11:58:49 AM PDT by ralfy
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To: catfish1957

Unfortunately, the “boom” is affected by low energy returns and steep decline curves:

http://aleklett.wordpress.com/2013/02/08/the-myth-of-saudi-america-straight-talk-from-geologists-about-our-new-era-of-oil-abundance/

Meanwhile, demand is rising worldwide.


24 posted on 07/22/2013 11:58:49 AM PDT by ralfy
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