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Tropical Storm Karen Live Thread
NHC/NOAA/Various ^ | 3 October 2013 | NHC/NOAA/Various

Posted on 10/03/2013 8:22:43 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Karen threatens Central Gulf of Mexico states.





NHC Public Advisories

NHC Tropical Discussions


TOPICS: Extended News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: hurricane; karen; tropical
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To: blam

That was a long time ago but I think I did. Lots of destruction then, as I remember it.


41 posted on 10/03/2013 1:21:21 PM PDT by jch10 (The greatest threat to America is the Democrats.)
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To: poobear
Temps have dropped 10 degrees for my morning cycle rides. Jacket weather for this Florida Native.

Dashcam photo posted 2 hours ago by a road musician friend of mine near Fishtail Montana.
He played in Livingston last night. brrrrrrrrrrr ;o)

42 posted on 10/03/2013 3:05:35 PM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: NautiNurse

They’ve had huge layoffs lately at the SBA disaster loan national facility. Down pretty much to a skeletal crew, just in time for a storm headed toward New Orleans.


43 posted on 10/03/2013 4:39:31 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: diverteach

Crap. Opal took out half my pecan and big pines trees. I just now got everything fit and growing.

The “S” dot over Alabama on 1 PM Sunday is right over my house....


44 posted on 10/03/2013 4:45:48 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to west of Destin Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* west of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City Louisiana
* metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Destin to Indian Pass Florida

TS Karen is about 360 miles S of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Max sustained winds 65 mph, 999mb
Moving NNW at 12 mph


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

45 posted on 10/03/2013 6:04:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: NautiNurse

Thx


46 posted on 10/03/2013 6:18:53 PM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: NautiNurse
I'm glad Cafe du Monde shipped my coffee order today.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

47 posted on 10/03/2013 6:22:13 PM PDT by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: NautiNurse
Looks like it'll prolly be a minimal TS as it passes by us here on the AL/GA border Sunday. I've seen worse. And the plants could all use a good late-season watering. Plus, I have a nice honey-do list to tackle indoors this weekend, not the least of which contains getting the stovepipe installed for our wood stove. Let it rain. At least it'll give me an excuse for not skimming the pool. LOL!


48 posted on 10/03/2013 6:28:16 PM PDT by Viking2002
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To: NautiNurse

Reports I’m seeing suggest that the shear could make Karen almost nothing by the next day or two (Jim Cantore tweet paraphrase).


49 posted on 10/03/2013 8:14:36 PM PDT by alancarp (Obama will grab your guns and ship them to Mexican drug mobs.)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
TS Karen weakens a little...
Expected to re-intensify Saturday or Saturday night...

Max sustained winds 60 mph, 1002mb
Moving NW at 10 mph
Located about 295 miles S of the mouth of the Mississippi River

No changes to watches or warnings


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

50 posted on 10/04/2013 1:58:40 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: All
Forecaster Bevin's 0500 NHC Discussion:
 
Karen is showing the affects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind
shear.  The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east
of the center...with only occasional showers and thunderstorm
activity near the center.  Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
risen to 1002 mb...and that both the flight-level and SFMR winds
have decreased.  Based on the aircraft data...the initial intensity
is reduced to a possibly generous 50 kt.

 
The initial motion is 325/9.  Karen is currently being steered by a
low/mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States.  This
ridge is forecast to weaken as a large deep-layer trough moves
eastward into the central United States.  This evolution should
cause Karen to turn northward and eventually northeastward...with
the big question being the timing of the northeastward turn.  The
UKMET...navgem...and Canadian models delay the turn until after
Karen makes landfall in southern Louisiana.  The GFS shows the
sharpest turn...and it calls for the center to make landfall on the
northwestern Florida Peninsula.  The GFDL...HWRF...and ECMWF are
between these extremes with landfall forecasts from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to the western Florida Panhandle.  Overall...
the guidance is slower than it was 6 hours ago...and the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the west during the first 48
hours.  The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight
westward shift and a slower forward speed.  Given the spread of
the guidance...the forecast of the landfall position is low
confidence.

 
The intensity forecast is rather problematic.  First...Karen is
likely to interact with a small upper-level trough during the next
24 hours...which might provide some support for renewed convection.
Second...the shear may diminish in the wake of the trough...which
could allow for intensification...especially if Karen turns
northeastward while still over water.  The ECMWF shows about 10 mb
of deepening after recurvature...and the GFS...HWRF...and GFDL
models show more.  Based on these models and current trends...the
intensity forecast is modified to show little change in strength
through 24 hours...followed by intensification to near hurricane
strength by 48 hours.  After landfall...Karen should weaken and
eventually become extratropical as it merges with the deep-layer
trough.  

 
Since the current forecast is slower than the previous forecast...no
change in watches and warnings is necessary at this time.  This
will be revisited as Karen progresses northward across the central
Gulf of Mexico.

 

 
Forecast positions and Max winds

 
init  04/0900z 24.9n  89.8w   50 kt  60 mph
 12h  04/1800z 25.9n  90.1w   50 kt  60 mph
 24h  05/0600z 27.0n  90.4w   50 kt  60 mph
 36h  05/1800z 28.0n  90.4w   55 kt  65 mph
 48h  06/0600z 29.1n  89.5w   60 kt  70 mph
 72h  07/0600z 32.5n  84.5w   35 kt  40 mph...inland
 96h  08/0600z 37.5n  77.5w   25 kt  30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h  09/0600z...dissipated

 
$$
forecaster Beven


51 posted on 10/04/2013 3:00:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: NautiNurse
Did you see this disclaimer on the NHC website? As follows:

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

Wonder if, as it approaches land, Obama has it turned off and blame the Republicans?

52 posted on 10/04/2013 4:06:29 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: Alas Babylon!
Hiya AB!

Nothing surprises me anymore with this desperately failed administration. Not even the Obamacare phone number: 1 800 F*** Y*!

Hang in there, FRiend.

53 posted on 10/04/2013 4:11:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: NautiNurse

” The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight
westward shift and a slower forward speed”

Looks to me like it might be shifting east, rather than west.


54 posted on 10/04/2013 4:45:29 AM PDT by PAR35
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To: PAR35

The satellite loop is deceiving. Wind shear is blowing the cloud tops east of the circulation center.


55 posted on 10/04/2013 5:05:32 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: NautiNurse

Ahhh maaann! Got a Corvette show at St. Pete Beach Sunday! Oh well, all of ‘em will get wet!


56 posted on 10/04/2013 5:37:23 AM PDT by Road Warrior 04 (Molon Labe! (Oathkeeper))
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks NautiNurse for your endless work, year after year.
57 posted on 10/04/2013 5:47:58 AM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (1 John 2:22...the man who denies that Jesus is the Christ. Such a man is the antichrist...)
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To: Bushbacker1
Got a Corvette show at St. Pete Beach Sunday!

20-30% chance of rain in Tampa Bay area Sat-Sun. 70% change of precip. Monday.

58 posted on 10/04/2013 7:39:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward from Grand Isle, Louisiana
to Morgan City.

TS Karen is located about 250 SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River...
about 290 miles SSE of Morgan City, LA.

Max sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph, 1003mb
Moving NNW at 10 mph.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly to the north
and east of the storm center.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

59 posted on 10/04/2013 8:02:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
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To: NautiNurse

Just keep it away from Hampton Roads until I can get another day of sailing in tomorrow!


60 posted on 10/04/2013 8:29:24 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (Anyone can fib. It takes an intellectual to tell a really big lie.)
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