Skip to comments.Tropical Storm Karen Live Thread
Posted on 10/03/2013 8:22:43 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Karen threatens Central Gulf of Mexico states.
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Tropical Discussions
That was a long time ago but I think I did. Lots of destruction then, as I remember it.
Dashcam photo posted 2 hours ago by a road musician friend of mine near Fishtail Montana.
He played in Livingston last night. brrrrrrrrrrr ;o)
They’ve had huge layoffs lately at the SBA disaster loan national facility. Down pretty much to a skeletal crew, just in time for a storm headed toward New Orleans.
Crap. Opal took out half my pecan and big pines trees. I just now got everything fit and growing.
The “S” dot over Alabama on 1 PM Sunday is right over my house....
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* west of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City Louisiana
* metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Destin to Indian Pass Florida
TS Karen is about 360 miles S of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Max sustained winds 65 mph, 999mb
Moving NNW at 12 mph
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Reports I’m seeing suggest that the shear could make Karen almost nothing by the next day or two (Jim Cantore tweet paraphrase).
Max sustained winds 60 mph, 1002mb
Moving NW at 10 mph
Located about 295 miles S of the mouth of the Mississippi River
No changes to watches or warnings
Karen is showing the affects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east of the center...with only occasional showers and thunderstorm activity near the center. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb...and that both the flight-level and SFMR winds have decreased. Based on the aircraft data...the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 50 kt.The initial motion is 325/9. Karen is currently being steered by a low/mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States. This ridge is forecast to weaken as a large deep-layer trough moves eastward into the central United States. This evolution should cause Karen to turn northward and eventually northeastward...with the big question being the timing of the northeastward turn. The UKMET...navgem...and Canadian models delay the turn until after Karen makes landfall in southern Louisiana. The GFS shows the sharpest turn...and it calls for the center to make landfall on the northwestern Florida Peninsula. The GFDL...HWRF...and ECMWF are between these extremes with landfall forecasts from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the western Florida Panhandle. Overall... the guidance is slower than it was 6 hours ago...and the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west during the first 48 hours. The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight westward shift and a slower forward speed. Given the spread of the guidance...the forecast of the landfall position is low confidence.The intensity forecast is rather problematic. First...Karen is likely to interact with a small upper-level trough during the next 24 hours...which might provide some support for renewed convection. Second...the shear may diminish in the wake of the trough...which could allow for intensification...especially if Karen turns northeastward while still over water. The ECMWF shows about 10 mb of deepening after recurvature...and the GFS...HWRF...and GFDL models show more. Based on these models and current trends...the intensity forecast is modified to show little change in strength through 24 hours...followed by intensification to near hurricane strength by 48 hours. After landfall...Karen should weaken and eventually become extratropical as it merges with the deep-layer trough.Since the current forecast is slower than the previous forecast...no change in watches and warnings is necessary at this time. This will be revisited as Karen progresses northward across the central Gulf of Mexico.Forecast positions and Max windsinit 04/0900z 24.9n 89.8w 50 kt 60 mph 12h 04/1800z 25.9n 90.1w 50 kt 60 mph 24h 05/0600z 27.0n 90.4w 50 kt 60 mph 36h 05/1800z 28.0n 90.4w 55 kt 65 mph 48h 06/0600z 29.1n 89.5w 60 kt 70 mph 72h 07/0600z 32.5n 84.5w 35 kt 40 mph...inland 96h 08/0600z 37.5n 77.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop 120h 09/0600z...dissipated$$ forecaster Beven
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Wonder if, as it approaches land, Obama has it turned off and blame the Republicans?
Nothing surprises me anymore with this desperately failed administration. Not even the Obamacare phone number: 1 800 F*** Y*!
Hang in there, FRiend.
” The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight
westward shift and a slower forward speed”
Looks to me like it might be shifting east, rather than west.
The satellite loop is deceiving. Wind shear is blowing the cloud tops east of the circulation center.
Ahhh maaann! Got a Corvette show at St. Pete Beach Sunday! Oh well, all of ‘em will get wet!
20-30% chance of rain in Tampa Bay area Sat-Sun. 70% change of precip. Monday.
TS Karen is located about 250 SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River...
about 290 miles SSE of Morgan City, LA.
Max sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph, 1003mb
Moving NNW at 10 mph.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly to the north
and east of the storm center.
Just keep it away from Hampton Roads until I can get another day of sailing in tomorrow!