Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Tropical Storm Karen Live Thread
NHC/NOAA/Various ^ | 3 October 2013 | NHC/NOAA/Various

Posted on 10/03/2013 8:22:43 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Karen threatens Central Gulf of Mexico states.





NHC Public Advisories

NHC Tropical Discussions


TOPICS: Extended News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: hurricane; karen; tropical
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-5051-82 last
To: All
Forecaster Bevin's 0500 NHC Discussion:
 
Karen is showing the affects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind
shear.  The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east
of the center...with only occasional showers and thunderstorm
activity near the center.  Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
risen to 1002 mb...and that both the flight-level and SFMR winds
have decreased.  Based on the aircraft data...the initial intensity
is reduced to a possibly generous 50 kt.

 
The initial motion is 325/9.  Karen is currently being steered by a
low/mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States.  This
ridge is forecast to weaken as a large deep-layer trough moves
eastward into the central United States.  This evolution should
cause Karen to turn northward and eventually northeastward...with
the big question being the timing of the northeastward turn.  The
UKMET...navgem...and Canadian models delay the turn until after
Karen makes landfall in southern Louisiana.  The GFS shows the
sharpest turn...and it calls for the center to make landfall on the
northwestern Florida Peninsula.  The GFDL...HWRF...and ECMWF are
between these extremes with landfall forecasts from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to the western Florida Panhandle.  Overall...
the guidance is slower than it was 6 hours ago...and the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the west during the first 48
hours.  The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight
westward shift and a slower forward speed.  Given the spread of
the guidance...the forecast of the landfall position is low
confidence.

 
The intensity forecast is rather problematic.  First...Karen is
likely to interact with a small upper-level trough during the next
24 hours...which might provide some support for renewed convection.
Second...the shear may diminish in the wake of the trough...which
could allow for intensification...especially if Karen turns
northeastward while still over water.  The ECMWF shows about 10 mb
of deepening after recurvature...and the GFS...HWRF...and GFDL
models show more.  Based on these models and current trends...the
intensity forecast is modified to show little change in strength
through 24 hours...followed by intensification to near hurricane
strength by 48 hours.  After landfall...Karen should weaken and
eventually become extratropical as it merges with the deep-layer
trough.  

 
Since the current forecast is slower than the previous forecast...no
change in watches and warnings is necessary at this time.  This
will be revisited as Karen progresses northward across the central
Gulf of Mexico.

 

 
Forecast positions and Max winds

 
init  04/0900z 24.9n  89.8w   50 kt  60 mph
 12h  04/1800z 25.9n  90.1w   50 kt  60 mph
 24h  05/0600z 27.0n  90.4w   50 kt  60 mph
 36h  05/1800z 28.0n  90.4w   55 kt  65 mph
 48h  06/0600z 29.1n  89.5w   60 kt  70 mph
 72h  07/0600z 32.5n  84.5w   35 kt  40 mph...inland
 96h  08/0600z 37.5n  77.5w   25 kt  30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop
120h  09/0600z...dissipated

 
$$
forecaster Beven


51 posted on 10/04/2013 3:00:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Did you see this disclaimer on the NHC website? As follows:

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

Wonder if, as it approaches land, Obama has it turned off and blame the Republicans?

52 posted on 10/04/2013 4:06:29 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: Alas Babylon!
Hiya AB!

Nothing surprises me anymore with this desperately failed administration. Not even the Obamacare phone number: 1 800 F*** Y*!

Hang in there, FRiend.

53 posted on 10/04/2013 4:11:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

” The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight
westward shift and a slower forward speed”

Looks to me like it might be shifting east, rather than west.


54 posted on 10/04/2013 4:45:29 AM PDT by PAR35
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: PAR35

The satellite loop is deceiving. Wind shear is blowing the cloud tops east of the circulation center.


55 posted on 10/04/2013 5:05:32 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Ahhh maaann! Got a Corvette show at St. Pete Beach Sunday! Oh well, all of ‘em will get wet!


56 posted on 10/04/2013 5:37:23 AM PDT by Bushbacker1 (Molon Labe! (Oathkeeper))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Thanks NautiNurse for your endless work, year after year.
57 posted on 10/04/2013 5:47:58 AM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (1 John 2:22...the man who denies that Jesus is the Christ. Such a man is the antichrist...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Bushbacker1
Got a Corvette show at St. Pete Beach Sunday!

20-30% chance of rain in Tampa Bay area Sat-Sun. 70% change of precip. Monday.

58 posted on 10/04/2013 7:39:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward from Grand Isle, Louisiana
to Morgan City.

TS Karen is located about 250 SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River...
about 290 miles SSE of Morgan City, LA.

Max sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph, 1003mb
Moving NNW at 10 mph.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly to the north
and east of the storm center.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

59 posted on 10/04/2013 8:02:36 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Just keep it away from Hampton Roads until I can get another day of sailing in tomorrow!


60 posted on 10/04/2013 8:29:24 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (Anyone can fib. It takes an intellectual to tell a really big lie.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Should be in my neck of the woods come Tuesday.

Guess I better clean the gutters this weekend.


61 posted on 10/04/2013 8:34:47 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]

To: SlowBoat407; NautiNurse
Just keep it away from Hampton Roads until I can get another day of sailing in tomorrow!

ROFL!!!!

We need the rain............

62 posted on 10/04/2013 8:38:07 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Hi NN,

The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east of the center..."

Sounds like Karen is getting ripped apart, if so she will likely do little damage at landfall, which is a very good thing.

63 posted on 10/04/2013 9:10:10 AM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

I can only guess that Jim Cantore is going to go hog wild during this storm like cowboys hitting a bordello at the end of a long cattle drive.

He’s had to go a whole season being hurricane celibate.


64 posted on 10/04/2013 9:40:04 AM PDT by Rebelbase (Tagline: (optional, printed after your name on post))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gabz

That we do... On Monday when I’m stuck inside all day anyway.


65 posted on 10/04/2013 10:44:46 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (Anyone can fib. It takes an intellectual to tell a really big lie.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 62 | View Replies]

To: SlowBoat407

I can go along with that! It doesn’t look like it’s going to get to us until Monday night/Tuesday morning. I’m up on the north end of the Eastern Shore (Chincoteague area) so we pay close attention!

Enjoy your sailing!


66 posted on 10/04/2013 10:54:11 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: Rebelbase; NautiNurse
I can only guess that Jim Cantore is going to go hog wild during this storm like cowboys hitting a bordello at the end of a long cattle drive.

One of my good friends from high school is a cousin of Jim's and they are still close. She tells all of her friends to tell him HI from her if anyone sees him - and then get the hell out of Dodge because he is a storm magnet! She now lives in Utah (we grew up in NYC) and has told him he's not welcome there!!!

67 posted on 10/04/2013 10:58:17 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; abner; AbsoluteGrace; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; ...
Karen disorganized...Hurricane Watch discontinued...

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River

TS Karen is about 235 mi SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Moving NNW at 7 mph
Max sustained winds 50 mph, 1003mb


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

68 posted on 10/04/2013 2:29:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

Tampa Bay dodges another bullet.

For now.


69 posted on 10/04/2013 2:33:44 PM PDT by Old Sarge (Opinions are like orgasms: only mine count, and I couldn't care less if you have one...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies]

To: Old Sarge
Tampa Bay dodges another bullet.

It's too late for a hurricane now because I've planted my fall vegetable garden.

70 posted on 10/04/2013 4:20:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies]

To: Old Sarge
Tampa Bay dodges another bullet.

Not in Fenway they didn't.

71 posted on 10/04/2013 4:22:35 PM PDT by dfwgator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

It’s fun to watch the Climate Change Channel.
They’re in full panic mode.

All August and Sept they could just show vid clips of old storms and hope for some global warming to kick in, LOL.


72 posted on 10/04/2013 4:23:16 PM PDT by nascarnation (Democrats control the Presidency, Senate, and Media. It's an uphill climb....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies]

To: All

Looks like it’s going to be New Orleans again huh?


73 posted on 10/04/2013 4:30:58 PM PDT by Fawn ("My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge" Hosea 4:6)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fawn

Karen is just about a has-been. Max sustained winds 40mph, pressure up to 1008mb.


74 posted on 10/05/2013 8:59:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 73 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

LOL. I’m not sure it ever even was to begin with. That wind shear just tore it to pieces.


75 posted on 10/05/2013 9:38:20 AM PDT by abb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 74 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Blue Skies!

All is clear.

76 posted on 10/06/2013 3:23:02 PM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

77 posted on 10/06/2013 3:24:31 PM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 76 | View Replies]

To: blam; abb
TS Karen reminds me of Patsy Cline singing I Fall to Pieces.
78 posted on 10/06/2013 5:17:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 76 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
I Fall To Pieces
79 posted on 10/06/2013 5:59:02 PM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 78 | View Replies]

To: blam

:o)


80 posted on 10/06/2013 6:05:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse (Obama sends U.S. Marines to pick up his dog & basketballs. Benghazi? Nope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 79 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse
Kindest regards to you. Thanks for the pings. I am doing pretty well. But? ♪♪ "...and I straighten Miss Emily's picture on the wall..." ♪♪
81 posted on 10/07/2013 2:39:01 AM PDT by backhoe (Just a Merry-Hearted Keyboard PirateBoy, Plunderin' his way across the Internet....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies]

To: NautiNurse

We lucked out this year. Good thing cuz I took in a giant abandoned cat and he’s cat-astrophic at times. I have my hurricane supplies. If Obama does anything stupid, I still have all my hurricane vittles to eat.


82 posted on 10/18/2013 4:26:37 PM PDT by floriduh voter (Jackwagons of the United States You Have Wrecked My Country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-5051-82 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson