Skip to comments.Tropical Storm Karen Live Thread
Posted on 10/03/2013 8:22:43 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Karen threatens Central Gulf of Mexico states.
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Tropical Discussions
Karen is showing the affects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east of the center...with only occasional showers and thunderstorm activity near the center. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb...and that both the flight-level and SFMR winds have decreased. Based on the aircraft data...the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 50 kt.The initial motion is 325/9. Karen is currently being steered by a low/mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States. This ridge is forecast to weaken as a large deep-layer trough moves eastward into the central United States. This evolution should cause Karen to turn northward and eventually northeastward...with the big question being the timing of the northeastward turn. The UKMET...navgem...and Canadian models delay the turn until after Karen makes landfall in southern Louisiana. The GFS shows the sharpest turn...and it calls for the center to make landfall on the northwestern Florida Peninsula. The GFDL...HWRF...and ECMWF are between these extremes with landfall forecasts from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the western Florida Panhandle. Overall... the guidance is slower than it was 6 hours ago...and the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west during the first 48 hours. The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight westward shift and a slower forward speed. Given the spread of the guidance...the forecast of the landfall position is low confidence.The intensity forecast is rather problematic. First...Karen is likely to interact with a small upper-level trough during the next 24 hours...which might provide some support for renewed convection. Second...the shear may diminish in the wake of the trough...which could allow for intensification...especially if Karen turns northeastward while still over water. The ECMWF shows about 10 mb of deepening after recurvature...and the GFS...HWRF...and GFDL models show more. Based on these models and current trends...the intensity forecast is modified to show little change in strength through 24 hours...followed by intensification to near hurricane strength by 48 hours. After landfall...Karen should weaken and eventually become extratropical as it merges with the deep-layer trough.Since the current forecast is slower than the previous forecast...no change in watches and warnings is necessary at this time. This will be revisited as Karen progresses northward across the central Gulf of Mexico.Forecast positions and Max windsinit 04/0900z 24.9n 89.8w 50 kt 60 mph 12h 04/1800z 25.9n 90.1w 50 kt 60 mph 24h 05/0600z 27.0n 90.4w 50 kt 60 mph 36h 05/1800z 28.0n 90.4w 55 kt 65 mph 48h 06/0600z 29.1n 89.5w 60 kt 70 mph 72h 07/0600z 32.5n 84.5w 35 kt 40 mph...inland 96h 08/0600z 37.5n 77.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/extratrop 120h 09/0600z...dissipated$$ forecaster Beven
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Wonder if, as it approaches land, Obama has it turned off and blame the Republicans?
Nothing surprises me anymore with this desperately failed administration. Not even the Obamacare phone number: 1 800 F*** Y*!
Hang in there, FRiend.
” The new forecast track reflects these trends with a slight
westward shift and a slower forward speed”
Looks to me like it might be shifting east, rather than west.
The satellite loop is deceiving. Wind shear is blowing the cloud tops east of the circulation center.
Ahhh maaann! Got a Corvette show at St. Pete Beach Sunday! Oh well, all of ‘em will get wet!
20-30% chance of rain in Tampa Bay area Sat-Sun. 70% change of precip. Monday.
TS Karen is located about 250 SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River...
about 290 miles SSE of Morgan City, LA.
Max sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph, 1003mb
Moving NNW at 10 mph.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly to the north
and east of the storm center.
Just keep it away from Hampton Roads until I can get another day of sailing in tomorrow!
Should be in my neck of the woods come Tuesday.
Guess I better clean the gutters this weekend.
We need the rain............
The main convective area is now located about 100 N mi east of the center..."
Sounds like Karen is getting ripped apart, if so she will likely do little damage at landfall, which is a very good thing.
I can only guess that Jim Cantore is going to go hog wild during this storm like cowboys hitting a bordello at the end of a long cattle drive.
He’s had to go a whole season being hurricane celibate.
That we do... On Monday when I’m stuck inside all day anyway.
I can go along with that! It doesn’t look like it’s going to get to us until Monday night/Tuesday morning. I’m up on the north end of the Eastern Shore (Chincoteague area) so we pay close attention!
Enjoy your sailing!
One of my good friends from high school is a cousin of Jim's and they are still close. She tells all of her friends to tell him HI from her if anyone sees him - and then get the hell out of Dodge because he is a storm magnet! She now lives in Utah (we grew up in NYC) and has told him he's not welcome there!!!
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River
TS Karen is about 235 mi SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River
Moving NNW at 7 mph
Max sustained winds 50 mph, 1003mb
Tampa Bay dodges another bullet.
It's too late for a hurricane now because I've planted my fall vegetable garden.
Not in Fenway they didn't.
It’s fun to watch the Climate Change Channel.
They’re in full panic mode.
All August and Sept they could just show vid clips of old storms and hope for some global warming to kick in, LOL.
Looks like it’s going to be New Orleans again huh?
Karen is just about a has-been. Max sustained winds 40mph, pressure up to 1008mb.
LOL. I’m not sure it ever even was to begin with. That wind shear just tore it to pieces.
All is clear.
We lucked out this year. Good thing cuz I took in a giant abandoned cat and he’s cat-astrophic at times. I have my hurricane supplies. If Obama does anything stupid, I still have all my hurricane vittles to eat.
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