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Confederation: An Off-Ramp For The Ukrainian Crisis
Reuters ^ | 03/14/2014 | Steven D. Krasner

Posted on 03/14/2014 9:24:11 PM PDT by goldstategop

There will be a vote in Crimea on Sunday on whether to split from the Ukraine and join Russia. It is likely to pass. So there will not be a return to the status quo ante.

The best the United States and Western Europe can hope for would be an outcome in which Crimea is not formally detached from Ukraine, but has a very high degree of autonomy. This autonomy would include not just choices about domestic policies but about some aspects of foreign policy as well.

Ukraine would be a confederal state where at least one of the component parts would control some elements of foreign policy, rather than a federal state where only the central government has authority over international affairs. Crimea would formally remain a part of Ukraine. The scope of the issues that Crimean officials would be able to officially decide on their own — even if their Russian counterparts were looking over their shoulders — would have to be negotiated between Simferopol and Kiev, or at least accepted by Kiev.

The United States and the European Union should not oppose such negotiations, even though they will be hard for Kiev to swallow. The alternative would be the de jure, not just de facto, incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation. Which would demonstrate, yet again, the ineffectuality of American policy.

...

A confederal Ukraine of which Crimea was still de jure a part, is the only off-ramp available for the immediate crisis.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Russia
KEYWORDS: confederation; crimea; crimeanreferendum; kosovo; reuters; russia; ukraine; ukrainecrisis; viktoryanukovich; yuliatymoshenko
Crimea already adopted a declaration of independence earlier this week. The referendum, by an overwhelming majority, is likely to take it out of Ukraine for good. There is no going to back to the status quo ante that the West - and the current government in Kiev insist upon. Ukraine can either negotiate a looser confederal association with the peninsula - or see it forfeited to Russia. It would be preferable for both Ukraine and Crimea to start their own direction as separate sovereign states in a loose union without being a bone of contention between the West and Russia. Its not the solution either Ukraine or Russia really prefer but it respects their core interests. With deft diplomacy - America can lead to a solution of mutual recognition between both Kiev and Simferopol as sovereign states and treating them as co-equal partners in a confederal union. The arrangement would be guaranteed together with Russia. Its the only realistic alternative to outright annexation by Russia on the table. Forcing the Crimeans back to living under Kiev's rule is not acceptable either to them or to Russia. For better or worse, Kosovo paradoxically enough, is the way to go here.
1 posted on 03/14/2014 9:24:11 PM PDT by goldstategop
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To: goldstategop
Confederation: An Off-Ramp For The California Crisis

‎3‎/‎15‎/‎2014‎ ‎12‎:‎24‎:‎11‎ ‎AM · by goldenstategoopstompers

Reuters DF^

| 03/14/2014 | St. Even E. Krabapple

There will be a vote [including illegal aliens allowed to vote in all US elections by Obama administration] in California on Sunday on whether to split from the USA and join Mexico. It is likely to pass, because there are millions of Spanish-speaking only people there and they naturally like Mexico more than USA.

So there will not be a return to the status quo ante. The best the United States and Mexico can hope for would be an outcome in which California is not formally detached from USA, but has a very high degree of autonomy. This autonomy would include not just choices about domestic policies but about some aspects of foreign policy as well, such as declaring war on the Ukraine.

2 posted on 03/14/2014 9:39:02 PM PDT by bunkerhill7 ("The Second Amendment has no limits on firepower"-NY State Senator Kathleen A. Marchione.")
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To: goldstategop
We don't have deft diplomacy with this regime, we have daft.
3 posted on 03/14/2014 9:41:01 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: bunkerhill7

Bye Kommiefornia.


4 posted on 03/14/2014 9:42:51 PM PDT by DirtyPigpen (Semper Fi)
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To: bunkerhill7

If liberal California wanted to leave the Union, I would be all for it.

We don’t need to have a bone of contention with them about where they want to take this country.

Self-determination is wonderful, yes? I think we’re going to see more countries carved out of existing ones than you can shake a stick at.

Its the wave of the future.


5 posted on 03/14/2014 9:52:20 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

They don’t want to leave, the fascists in our Federal Government and in liberal circles WANT TO CONTROLL what you do and how you, and your family members think!


6 posted on 03/14/2014 10:03:18 PM PDT by JSDude1 (Defeat Hagan, elect a Constutional Conservative: Dr. Greg Brannon!)
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To: JSDude1

Unfortunately, that’s true.

I have a soft spot for the Crimeans. F*ck the two Ks. Khruschev and Kerry!

I hope they send the shot heard around the world on Sunday.

According to Obama and Kerry, our independence from the British was illegal! I’m glad they weren’t around in 1776.


7 posted on 03/14/2014 10:11:02 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop; All
Crimea already adopted a declaration of independence earlier this week. The referendum, by an overwhelming majority,

I really don't comprehend this mode of thinking. The Prime Minister of Crimea was, not too long ago, the member of a fringe party with only three seats in their parliament, and was formerly a member of the Russian mafia who went by the name "Goblin" (and, considering Moscow's involvement with the Russian mob, is also likely an FSB agent). He came into power by marching into parliament accompanied by men wielding grenade launchers and machine guns, and declared a quorum and then, himself, prime minister, with many of the parlaimentry members being counted as "present" and voting in favor, when, later, they say they were never there at all.

Right now the Russians have total control of the local media in Crimea, and are occupying the entire area with armed soldiers and bandits. Why is it that we assume that the popular will of Crimea, which isn't even all ethnic Russiam (Tatars make up about 30 percent, and are anti-communist), will take up with the Russkies? Is every ethnic Russian a slave-born Muscovite first, and a Ukrainian second? I don't believe it, and I consider it stupid to assume this.

8 posted on 03/14/2014 10:27:40 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: goldstategop

Oops, I said the Tatars were 30 percent. They are 13 percent actually. I inflated the numbers some how in my mind.


9 posted on 03/14/2014 10:44:44 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

You realize you’re defending Nikita Khruschev, right? His word was law and he transferred Crimea from Russia to Ukraine without the Crimea being given a say in the decision at the time. Before that, it was always part of Russia.

You and the rest of the West are defending the edict of a long-dead Communist dictator. And when Crimea seeks to overturn it in a democratic vote, you reflexively denounce it as “illegal.”

And the circumstances by which the new Crimean government took isn’t all that different from how the new Ukrainian government took office. Yet the West has an oddly selective idea of democracy.

Just wondering since neither the US nor the West have a real stake in Crimea but its of great importance to Russia.


10 posted on 03/14/2014 11:00:09 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
You and the rest of the West are defending the edict of a long-dead Communist dictator.

The stupidity of this statement is that the apparent solution is to, again, manipulate Crimea back into a reborn Soviet Union without the free choice of their will being respected. Though, I do not deny that there are many Crimeans who are Pro-Soviet (not to be confused with Pro-Russian).

11 posted on 03/14/2014 11:14:54 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: goldstategop

People in the West are dreaming.

Putin will be in Kiev before you can say Gosudarsvenoy Bezopasnosti. And the Baltics. And then he’ll be issuing ultimata to Poland and the other former satellites.

He’s still fairly young. He has time to march all the way to the Atlantic. And no one will commit suicide trying to stop him anywhere along the way.


12 posted on 03/14/2014 11:15:59 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (HELL, NO! BE UNGOVERNABLE! --- ISLAM DELENDA EST)
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To: goldstategop

Bump


13 posted on 03/14/2014 11:18:06 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

The Baltics are NATO members. Bad stuff will happen if Russia invades the Baltics.


14 posted on 03/14/2014 11:20:54 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

WW2 started over Poland.


15 posted on 03/14/2014 11:22:02 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

Most are pro-Russian. So yes, this is their choice, fully consonant with international law and European values.

They’re deciding their own fate, not Moscow, Kiev, Brussels or Washington.

No one else has the right to make that decision for them. Whatever they decide, I respect their choice on democratic and human rights grounds.

No one is denying Ukrainians the right to decide the fate of their country. But they have no more right to deny that choice to the Crimeans than the British had the right to deny it to Americans in 1776.

After all, self determination is a universal principle, even if its one imperfectly realized in our world.


16 posted on 03/14/2014 11:25:34 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: jpsb

Yup. I don’t see why Russia wants to get into a military confrontation with NATO. A war would serve no one’s interests.

We all remember what happened exactly a century ago. We must do all in our power to avert it.


17 posted on 03/14/2014 11:30:27 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop; All
They’re deciding their own fate, not Moscow, Kiev, Brussels or Washington.

I bet you also believe that there isn't something like 10,000 Russian soldiers massing in Crimea right now too? And that an invasion of Eastern Ukraine from 3 or 4 directions with an army of 80,000+ soldiers and advanced equipment isn't likely to happen?

After all, self determination is a universal principle, even if its one imperfectly realized in our world.

Are you Russian? Contrary what the average Muscovite has been led to believe by Putin, you cannot have self-determination when you're on the wrong end of a barrel. The Russians must pull back, the Mafioso Prime Minister must be banished, the freedom of the press restored, and proper elections held, before we can claim that there is 'free determination" going on in Crimea.

18 posted on 03/14/2014 11:34:53 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: goldstategop; jpsb

What war, goldstategop?
Going to go nuclear over Estonia?
Just as dead as stopping Putin now.


19 posted on 03/14/2014 11:42:00 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (HELL, NO! BE UNGOVERNABLE! --- ISLAM DELENDA EST)
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To: goldstategop
"If liberal California wanted to leave the Union, I would be all for it."

Only if they take Massachusetts and New York with them.

20 posted on 03/14/2014 11:47:03 PM PDT by matthew fuller (No, I don't miss GWB- I miss Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld.)
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To: goldstategop

The Crimea has been Russian for over 300 years. It is home to Russia only warm water port. They are not going to let it go.


21 posted on 03/15/2014 12:00:22 AM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

Estonia joined NATO on April the 2nd 2004


22 posted on 03/15/2014 12:01:55 AM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: jpsb

That doesn’t answer the question.


23 posted on 03/15/2014 12:08:21 AM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide (HELL, NO! BE UNGOVERNABLE! --- ISLAM DELENDA EST)
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To: goldstategop
Self-determination is a universal principle. But any referendum done at the point of a gun is illegitimate.

So let's look at the previous referendums that Crimea has had to get an idea of just how pro-Russian they really are.

Crimea held a referendum in January 1991 to effectively separate themselves from the collapsing USSR with 94% of the vote.

Crimea held another referendum declaring themselves an autonomous republic of Ukraine in December 1991 with 54% of the vote, officially separating themselves from the USSR and joining Ukraine.

The rest of Ukraine voted for independence with 90% of the vote.

It was the closest vote in the entire Ukraine, with a bare majority favoring joining Ukraine, but it WAS a majority. Keep in mind also that at this time most of the Tatars that were to return later had not arrived yet, and any legitimate referendum today would include their votes.

24 posted on 03/15/2014 12:09:47 AM PDT by Corporate Democrat
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To: Corporate Democrat

At the time it seemed like a good idea since no one wanted to hold the union state together.

What is notable if anything, the seismic fissures that broke it apart now threaten to break up Ukraine.

And I don’t think its something the politicians can stop now. Maybe the best way to prevent further strife is for restive members of the family to leave.

In the long run, that may be better for all concerned.


25 posted on 03/15/2014 12:20:49 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Well, not only did Crimea decide to separate themselves from the USSR but they also chose to join Ukraine with 54% of the vote.

Had the December 1991 referendum failed, they would have become an independent state upon the dissolution of the USSR, and it’s notable that they chose not to do so.


26 posted on 03/15/2014 12:26:34 AM PDT by Corporate Democrat
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To: matthew fuller

“If liberal California wanted to leave the Union, I would be all for it.”
Only if they take Massachusetts and New York with them.

And build a wall around them.


27 posted on 03/15/2014 2:04:15 AM PDT by MNDude
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To: goldstategop

Whatever coloring or political description gets attached to this situation the fact of it is that Putin wants/needs all of Ukraine and he will get it. We will draw red lines and make stupid speeches but that won’t change a thing


28 posted on 03/15/2014 5:40:46 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: Corporate Democrat
Self-determination is a universal principle

There are no universal principles, besides the law that the strong rule and the weak submit.

Attempts to pretend otherwise have caused catastrophic harm to millions.

29 posted on 03/15/2014 5:49:33 AM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: jpsb
Estonia joined NATO on April the 2nd 2004

Meaningless.

NATO is a fiction, which Putin will expose if it suits him.

30 posted on 03/15/2014 5:50:51 AM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: goldstategop

Then we are in for endless warfare.


31 posted on 03/15/2014 6:52:15 AM PDT by Kozak ("It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal" Henry Kissinger)
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To: goldstategop

It was part of theRUSSIAN EMPIRE. It was populated with Tatars ,not Russians.


32 posted on 03/15/2014 6:56:20 AM PDT by Kozak ("It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal" Henry Kissinger)
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