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I received an email from Alexander for Senate today, perhaps to try to counter this new poll. I suspect that the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes, but I think that Carr has a fighting chance. Here is the email that I received:

Thought you would like to see this article. -- Alice

Joe Carr Has Moved The Needle 1 Percent In Five Months
Nashville Scene
Steve Cavendish
May 21, 2014

In the latest Vanderbilt poll, we find that Joe Carr's momentum is such that if he has another decade or so, he'll be competitive with Sen. Lamar Alexander.

From the last poll in December until now, pollsters at the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions discovered that Carr's favorable ratings among registered Republicans rose from 16 percent to 17 percent. Seventy-five percent of the group either didn't know or had never heard of Joe Carr.

Meanwhile, in a measure of favorability among Republican primary voters, the news was just as bad for Carr:

Alexander
Favorable: 64%
Unfavorable: 29%
Never heard of: 2%

Carr
Favorable: 20%
Unfavorable: 8%
Never heard of: 55%

Other bullet points on the race:

* The Senior Senator's approval ratings are 47 percent among tea party members. That's not a "throw him out of office" kind of number.

* Half of Republican primary voters have only a favorable view toward Alexander while 7 percent have only a favorable view toward Carr.

* Of the three biggest officeholders in the state: Alexander, Sen. Bob Corker and Gov. Bill Haslam, only Alexander's statewide approval ratings didn't fall.

If we look north to last night's primaries in Kentucky, they don't exactly portend great things for Carr, either. Matt Bevin lasted only six minutes after the polls closed before Sen. Mitch McConnell was declared the winner. Tea party favorite Bevin raised only $3 million and while Carr hasn't done anything as dumb as Bevin — like speak at a pro-cockfighting rally — his sluggish fundraising and lack of a breakthrough issue have him miles behind Alexander, it appears.