Posted on 06/25/2014 5:47:58 AM PDT by kristinn
The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy's worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.
While the economy's woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since the government's first estimate was published in April, which had the economy expanding at a 0.1 percent rate.
The difference between the second and third estimates was the largest on records going back to 1976, the Commerce Department said.
Economists had expected growth to be revised to show it contracting at a 1.7 percent rate. Sharp revisions to GDP numbers are not unusual as the government does not have complete data when it makes its initial and preliminary estimates.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
Forgetting for a moment the numbers, I’m going to go by gut over the months of april, may, and june, which I assume is the 2nd quarter of a GDP year.
I live a comfortable middle class life based on a career military retirement and current employment. I am the pastor of a church in rural America, but we’re close enough to a major metropolitan area that I see the agricultural, business, service, and industrial jobs impact on parishoners and their families. Plus, I have a feel for finances of people based on church giving.
The employment that is happening is part time service type jobs. I know some highly trained people who have gotten employed in the medical and technology industries, but their ability for training is rare. The retired folk on fixed income must rigidly watch every dime. There are no new cars in our congregation over that 3 month period and most people do not talk about major purchases. Basic costs of living, food, fuel, and maintenance, have risen. I don’t hear complaints about losing insurance and higher insurance costs.
So, I see things standing still. Any added part time job really is just to keep up, to provide a little breathing room.
If you were to ask me based on my gut feel, I’d say that growth was at 0 and that decline was at 0.
“Yeah, so they release a modified -2.9% so what’s it really? -5%?”
Many of us probably had the same response re cooking the books or are these results the pre adjusted semi not final results..
“When a recession is declared over but in reality it continues at an even faster pace is it really over?”
Only in the whacked out minds of the media and the rat party.
What we may be seeing is the documented double dip recession, and we are in the second dip.
I bought one from here: http://www.oldphones.com/ . I haven’t put it in yet since I only have one “line”/outlet, but it’s a beauty to look and it has that nice heavy feel. I have an old black desk phone.
This one’s nice:
http://www.oldphones.com/product-p/ae40-chr.htm
I’d wonder if they’re even compatible anymore with modern phone lines. Does the refurb address this, if it’s a problem?
Just heard Smith Barney said it was the largest drop in 53 years that was not related to a recession. I guess next quarter it will be?
I’m pretty sure they are.
YES!
Product Shrinkage = Hidden Inflation.
Been saying this for years.....
Interesting theory - and plausible.
Good point!!
The economy is no longer being propped up by Fiat currency
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Yep, we were printing 1 trillion dollars a year, coupled with a 4 trillion dollar budget which has a 1 trillion dollar deficit.
Pop goes the bubble
It would be just fine with me if these alleged “economists” would shut their pie holes until they have a good set of numbers. Preliminary figgers have been totally useless for, oh, I dunno, four or five decades now. I’ve never met anyone who makes bidness decisions based on numbers that are guaranteed to change before you can write your next check.
Can you fix that golf cart label plate to read “easy come-—easy go” ?
so we’re in a recession...
triple dip recession...
That chart is .... racist.
All anecdotal. For another one our business shipments (housing related) are up 20% this quarter. Our hiring also up for the 12th quarter in a row. All the data has been trending the right direction, albeit slower than it has in any other recovery, for a while. You don’t have to believe it though. Your choice to ignore it.
No because the BEA makes statistical,adjustments for product shrinkage. It’s in their FAQ’s if you want to make the effort to look it up. I’ve posted it here before.
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