Ballot measure neck and neck; Sullivan leads GOP U.S. Senate race (Alaska)

Fairbanks Daily News-Miner ^ | Aug 19, 2014 | Julie Stricker

[Jet Jaguar]

FAIRBANKS - Alaskans flocked to the polls Tuesday, drawn by a contentious ballot issue over the state's oil tax policy and a hotly contested Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the winner of which likely will face Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in November.

With a fifth of precincts reporting, only 552 votes separated the yes and no votes on the ballot measure, with yes on top.

As early returns rolled in for the Senate race, Dan Sullivan had 40 percent of the vote, followed by Joe Miller with 33 percent, Mead Treadwell with 23.8 and John Jaramillo with 3 percent. Begich faced only token opposition in the Democratic primary, with 83 percent of the votes over William Bryk, with 2.9 percent. The ballot also included Libertarian candidates Tom Walker, 4.89 percent, Mark Fish, 1.65 percent ,and Scott Kohlhaas, 1.1 percent, and Alaskan Independence candidates Zachary Kile, 2.5 percent, and Vic Kohring, with 3.8 percent.

In the U.S. House race, incumbent Rep. Don Young had 74 percent of the total, easily topping three challengers in the Republican primary, John Cox, David Seaward and Dave Dohner. In the Democratic primary, Forrest Dunbar had 62 percent of the vote over Frank Vondersaar, 15 percent. Libertarian Jim McDermott tallied 22 percent of the total.

The gubernatorial races were largely quiet for the primary, with incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell and Democrat Byron Mallott easily outdistancing primary challengers.

Several candidates were seeking lieutenant governor positions on November's ballot. In the Democratic primary, Hollis French was leading Bob Williams, 62 percent to 24 percent. Libertarian Andrew Lee and Republican Dan Sullivan were unopposed.

Interior Alaska legislative races

In Alaska Senate District A, Republican Pete Kelly and Democrat Tamara Roselius were both unopposed.

In Senate District C, Republican Click Bishop and Democrat Dorothy Shockley were unopposed in their respective primaries.

In House District 1, Greg Bringhurst and Jomo Stewart vied for the Republican nomination, with Bringhurst leading with 70 percent of the vote with 6 of 9 precincts reporting. Democratic incumbent Scott Kawasaki was unopposed.

In District 2, Democrat Larry Murakami led Uriah Nalikak in the Democratic primary, 70 percent to 30 percent with 2 of 4 precincts report. Republican Steve Thompson were unopposed.

House District 3 race which pitted two incumbents against each other, Republicans Doug Isaacson and Tammie Wilson, also drew strong voter participation. With 3 of 5 precincts reporting, Wilson had the lead, 55 percent to 45 percent. The winner will face Democrat Sharron Hunter.

In House District 4, both Republican Joe Blanchard II and Democrat David Guttenberg were unopposed.

In House District 5, Republican Pete Higgins and Democrat Elizabeth Clark were unopposed. In House District 6, Dave Talerico of Healy and Thomas "Tad" Dunning of Tok faced off in the Republican primary. With 5 of 33 precincts reporting, Talerico led, 64 percent to 35 percent. The winner will face Wilson Justin, a Democrat from Slana who was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

In sprawling District 9, three candidates are competing for the Republican nomination. They are incumbent Eric Feige of Chickaloon, Sutton councilman George Rauscher and Mat-Su Borough Assemblyman Jim Colver. With 5 of 11 precincts in, Colver was in the lead with 35 percent. face Mabel Wimmer of Glennallen, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

In House District 4, Democrat Dean Westlake faced no challengers.

[Jet Jaguar]

Alaska ping.

[Jane Long]

C’mon, Joe!! Sarah endorsed Joe Miller....and I’d love to see him get this. Especially after what MurKOWski pulled.

[vpintheak]

Rooting for Joe! Rooting for No! Shame how many Alaskans think raping oil companies will somehow work for our benefit. It’s hard to do business on Alaska, making it less profitable to do business is beyond retarded.

[iowamark]

Alaska SoS site:

http://soaelections.gci.net/data/results.htm

[hosepipe]

After what Lisa Murkowski pulled last election...
ALL Alaskan republican candidates are suspect....

A word to the wise is watch them all closely...
I noticed Sarah was slow to support Joe.. as well..

Who OWNS whom is yet to be told....
Socialism or Fascism is kinda the same thing.. only different..

Lisa seems to be not only dishonest BUT a traitor as well...
The Obamanoids own her..

[Nifster]

Is Alaska a fifty percent or run off state?

[zeestephen]

Most people don't realize that Alaska has really struggled economically since the Recession ended in 2009.

In the last 12 months, total jobs have gone down, the average wage has gone down, and the state GDP has gone negative.

No other USA state is down in all three of those categories.

One key factor - the “fracking” revolution in the Lower 48 has seriously hurt Alaska's energy profits.

It's not clear if the bad economy will help or hurt Republicans in the US Senate race.

Incumbent Senator Begich, a Democrat, holds a small lead in the polls over Sullivan, the Republican who is expected to win the GOP primary.

[hattend]

Prop 1 going down to defeat.

What has happened to Alaskans?

[TexasFreeper2009]

Ever since the left demonized Palin Alaska has been voting strange.

It’s possible, many people that only live in Alaska during the turist season (most of which are liberals) are now voting that didn’t vote before, even though they live elsewhere most of the year. These votes COULD be illegal IF they are also voting in the other state they live in the remainder of the year.

[thackney]

One key factor - the “fracking” revolution in the Lower 48 has seriously hurt Alaska's energy profits.

I disagree. There is no lack of market for crude oil on the West Coast, where Alaskan oil is sold. Prices are not depressed.

What hurt Alaska greatly was an over-the-top profit tax placed on the oil production (and made retroactive). It stopped many projects and limited any significant investment until it was thrown out.

The advances in hydraulic fracturing combined with the advances in steerable directional drilling should have made Alaska another boom time. Instead the state choked their golden goose to the point it could hardly produce.

[Jane Long]

Looks like Dan Sullivan won, over Miller. He’ll now face Dim/Begich.

Prop 1 is too close to call, per the news outlet at link.

[hattend]

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 435 98.6%
Times Counted 156000/494900 31.5%
Total Votes 153164

YES 73184 47.78%
NO 79980 52.22%

====

Doesn't look too close to call.

[zeestephen]

Yes.

I should have added that energy production has declined in Alaska over the last two years.

As to price, I disagree.

From memory, fracking has added 2 million B/D to North American supply.

That has to depress prices regionally.

In spite of increased international demand, in spite of reduced production in Mexico and Venezuela, in spite of Putin-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and Iraq-ISIS, crude is back to $95, which is roughly where it's been for the last three years.

[thackney]

That has to depress prices regionally.

Agreed. But Alaska delivers to the West Coast. Very little of the new shale production goes that way. It is the reason a place like Midland Texas has a much lower price for oil.

Texas price gap widens as oil production rises
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3194662/posts

Alaska Crude currently sells for $3 more per barrel than West Texas Intermediate. Back in 2008, the peak of the US oil pricing, it averaged $7 less. Relative to the shale peak production coming mostly from Texas, Alaskan oil has become more, not less valuable.

[zeestephen]

Thanks.

I understand the issue more clearly now.

However, in Seattle, I believe we have a refinery near us that is totally supplied by rail car - but, I will re-check that.

New topic...

Help me understand Prop 1.

Very confusing.

It appears to me that Alaska voters have left in place a new tax on oil companies.

Is that correct?

[thackney]

However, in Seattle, I believe we have a refinery near us that is totally supplied by rail car

There are 5 refineries in NW Washington. 2 in Ferndale (BP and Phillps 66), 2 in Anacortes (Shell and Tesoro) and little US Oil & Refining in Tacoma, totaling over 630,000 Barrels per day. Which one do you think receives no oil from the port. The port is why they were built there. There has been some increase in rail traffic from the Bakken, but it is relatively small.

As of May this year, none of those refineries had the rail handling capacity to equal their refining capacity, although little US Oil&Ref was close with 35MBPD compared to the 42MBPD throughput.

Capcity ofOperable Petroleum Refineris by Stae asof January 1,2014
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinerycapacity/table3.pdf

The Northwest’s Pipeline on Rails
http://www.sightline.org/research/the-northwests-pipeline-on-rails/

All have plans to bring more in, but they are still not complete. This is really more competition for oil imported farther away like Asia and the Middle East.

http://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.cfm?sid=WA

Help me understand Prop 1. It appears to me that Alaska voters have left in place a new tax on oil companies.

If approved, it would restore the overbearing profit tax put in place back during the Palin Administration. If voted down, it would keep the current tax structure that has lead to more investment by the oil companies.

[thackney]

This may help as well. The entire West Coast is still importing more than a million barrels per day from outside the US. About half of that comes from the Persian Gulf region.

There is demand to bring in more oil by rail to the West Coast without greatly impacting Alaska’s pricing for their crude oil.

PAD District Imports by Country of Origin
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcp_a2_r50_epc0_ip0_mbblpd_m.htm

[thackney]

Sorry, one more and I will stop.

As of May 2014, all 5 refineries were bringing in some crude oil from other countries via the port.

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/companylevel/data/import.xls

The spreadsheet allows you to filter and sort the data. There was a lot from Canada that month. Past months are available at:
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/companylevel/

[Bratch]