Iraq and Syria Follow Lebanon's Precedent

STRATFOR ^ | August 26, 2014 | George Friedman

[Wuli]

Lebanon was created out of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. [snip] [It} reshaped the collapsed Ottoman Empire south of Turkey.[snip] For nearly 100 years, Sykes-Picot defined the region. A strong case can be made that the nation-states Sykes-Picot created are now defunct,[snip]

[snip]

The states the Europeans created were arbitrary, the inhabitants did not give their primary loyalty to them, and the tensions within states always went over the border to neighboring states. The British and French imposed ruling structures before the war, and then a wave of coups overthrew them after World War II. Syria and Iraq became pro-Soviet states while Israel, Jordan and the Arabians became pro-American, and monarchies and dictatorships ruled over most of the Arab countries. These authoritarian regimes held the countries together.

Lebanon was divided into various areas controlled by various clans. The clans evolved. The dominant Shiite clan was built around Nabi Berri. Later, Iran sponsored another faction, Hezbollah. Each religious faction had multiple clans, and within the clans there were multiple competitors for power. From the outside it appeared to be strictly a religious war, but that was an incomplete view. It was a competition among clans for money, security, revenge and power. And religion played a role, but alliances crossed religious lines frequently.

The state became far less powerful than the clans. Beirut, the capital, became a battleground for the clans. [snip]

A similar process has taken place in Syria. The arbitrary nation-state has become a region of competing clans.[snip]

[snip]

Something very similar happened in Iraq. As the Americans departed, the government that was created was dominated by Shia, who were fragmented. To a great degree, the government excluded the Sunnis, who saw themselves in danger of marginalization.

[snip]

[Wuli]

neither 100% pro or con, I'll let the author speak for himself - read the full article at the link

[Borges]

The basic canon of Arab life: Me against my brother; me and my brother against our father; my family against my cousins and the clan; the clan against the tribe; and the tribe against the world. And all of us against the infidel.

[NicknamedBob]

"The basic canon of Arab life: Me against my brother; me and my brother against our father; my family against my cousins and the clan; the clan against the tribe; and the tribe against the world. And all of us against the infidel."

Canon to right of me,
Canon to left of me,
Canon in front of me
Volley and thunder ...