Posted on 09/02/2014 3:53:23 PM PDT by Din Maker
There is a new chart-topper in Roll Call’s latest monthly ranking of the 10 most vulnerable senators.
Montana’s appointed Sen. John Walsh was by far the most endangered incumbent in the chamber at the time of the previous installment in early August, but his decision last month to not seek a full term opened the top slot to a couple other worthy contenders.
Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., is still in a perilous political position, but Louisiana Sen. Mary L. Landrieu has leapfrogged him on the list to become the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbent.
The Democrat is pushing hard to eclipse 50 percent on Nov. 4, the day of Louisiana’s jungle primary and possibly Landrieu’s best opportunity for re-election. She will undoubtedly get close. But if Landrieu doesn’t win a majority of the vote against a few GOP challengers, she will likely face Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., in the Dec. 6 runoff.
If that happens, all bets are off, and Landrieu’s viability may depend on which party prevailed on Election Day.
With the elections just two months away, Democratic incumbents overall have run strong-enough campaigns to ensure the fight for the Senate majority remains a tossup — despite a playing field tilted heavily in the GOP’s direction.
Republicans, who need a net gain of six seats to take control of the chamber, are expected to get halfway there by picking up the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Its open-seat opportunities don’t stop there, but the GOP will likely need to defeat at least two sitting senators to win the majority.
They have several to choose from:
1. Mary L. Landrieu, D-La. No incumbent faces a more complicated path to re-election than Landrieu, thanks to the state’s unique voting process and calendar. With a challenging national climate and a strong GOP challenger in Rep. Bill Cassidy, Republicans may finally defeat the senator who has won some tough races before.
2. Mark Pryor, D-Ark. Pryor is surprising people in both parties and is in far better shape at this point than some expected a year ago. But he remains a top target of national Republicans, who believe Rep. Tom Cotton will ultimately win over the GOP voters who have supported Pryor in the past.
3. Mark Begich, D-Alaska The Democrat running arguably the best campaign also happens to be in possibly the most challenging state for the party. Begich and his Democratic backers have been hammering Republican Dan Sullivan for months, long before he finally emerged with the nomination Aug. 19.
4. Kay Hagan, D-N.C. Hagan is a top target for Republicans, but circumstances have been good to her. Republican Thom Tillis, the state House speaker, had to put his candidacy on the back burner for the past several months when the legislature’s “short session” ended up not so short. He only became a full-time candidate last week, when the House finally wrapped up.
5. Mark Udall, D-Colo. Udall has a strong opponent in Rep. Cory Gardner, and Colorado is a solidly purple state that could go either way. Democrats are hoping their 2010 playbook, which got Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet elected in a Republican wave year, will be as successful the second time around.
6. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. If rankings went by polling alone, McConnell might be higher on this list. He faces a legitimate challenge in Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, a rock star fundraiser who makes the party optimistic. Grimes needs to top the 47 percent McConnell’s previous opponent received in 2008, but that’s not easy in a midterm cycle with an unpopular Democratic president.
7. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Shaheen is well-liked and remains the clear favorite, but a single poll in mid-August showing a 2-point race caused an uproar of speculation. It’s likely not that close, but Republicans hope former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will begin to close the gap after the Sept. 9 primary.
8. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore. With a solid lead in the polls and large financial advantage, Merkley doesn’t appear to be in much danger. But Republican Monica Wehby is getting some much-needed help from the Koch brothers on the airwaves and Merkley’s poll numbers, while strong, don’t match Al Franken’s, pushing the Oregon senator up one spot on this list.
9. Al Franken, D-Minn. Franken is a strong fundraiser in a solidly blue state. There’s a path for Republicans to potentially make this race competitive, but so far, GOP nominee Mike McFadden hasn’t made it happen.
10. Mark Warner, D-Va. It would take a Republican wave election to oust Warner, a popular former governor with a massive cash advantage over his Republican opponent Ed Gillespie. He joins this list largely for lack of another option.
Levin isn’t running for reelection in Michigan either and the Republican candidate is fairly strong.
Don't be silly, Mitch already said he would restore the rules if he becomes Senate Majority Leader.
Here are a few polls, click the next page for older results.
My guess things will begin to pick up now we are past Labor Day.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/
McConnell has already promised to undo those rules if he winds up majority leader. He said it himself.
/johnny
LOLOL! You wish. Bohner got rid of conservative chairmen in the house because they were... well... conservative.
Mitch won't let a conservative on any important chairmanship.
And since McConnell provided Reid with the critical cloture votes that Harry needed to advance his agenda, what makes you think he wouldn't advance Reid's agenda some more?
Pretending you can 'hold their feet to the fire' is wishful thinking.
/johnny
this is what would change.
in the Senate,
Harry Reid, as minority leader,
would have to actively oppose budget bills
from the GOP.
right now, Harry can just let the bill sit on his desk
because he decides what the Senate votes on.
Give it time. Stuart Smalley is polling at 44 percent favorability, Baraq is at 43 percent here, Smalley has cast 159 out of 161 votes with the Caliph and McFadden hasn't even hit Weird Al on his record yet. We're hoping for a warm fall here.
Mitch is on the Ten List.
The ONLY GOP Senator on the list.
By the time January rolls around, he would have already been hired
at Trent Lott’s DC Lobbying firm,
‘As Rush pointed out, has anyone noticed there are no polls being done?’
Thanks for mentioning this. I had been wondering about the dearth of new senate race polls. Rush’s theory is probably right. Certainly if the Dems were doing better than expected, we would be seeing new polling results much more frequently, or so it seems.
For one thing, get rid of Harry Reid who has 300 House Bills he refuses to let come up for a vote.
Oh and there is that little issue of nominating a Supreme Court judge should a vacancy become open.....
I remember when Jimmy Carter was getting waxed, the media told us the race was too close to call. They told us Michael Dukakis’ “I’m on your side message” repeated two dozen times had made the race a dead heat.
So when they told us Bill Clinton was winning I didnt believe them, and they reported the 1994 and 2010 GOP landslides as they are reporting today.
Given the current climate, if the GOP ran dead dogs and slimy lizards they could win, if nothing else as as a protest vote.
There should be no reason for our candidates to lack $$$. We should all contribute.
Seeing some folks on this board reflexively get upset that the Republicans could win cracks me up.
Do you really think a Republican majority Senate would block a Supreme Court appointment by the first Black President?
I worked hard for several here in Texas, and worked hard to get rid of one liberal republican.
I'm conservative. I'm not republican.
I despise liberals.
The current Speaker of the House, and Minority leader of the Senate are liberals.
/johnny
I gave $50 to Scott Brown. Guess who had held the seat for 50 years? Hint: think Chappaquiddik.
Especially if the nominee is black, female or Hispanic.
These gutless bastards were too scared to even put Hillary under oath
when she testified in the House.
Reid would not be able to sit on 0ver 300 bills that passed the house.
Every Brown commercial ends “Secure the border - enforce the law”.
I presume he will win the primary next week. If so, I’m in.
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