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Vanity - Ebola model projects future case based on Daily Transmission Rate
Self | September 15, 2014 | Scouter

Posted on 09/15/2014 2:50:13 PM PDT by scouter

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To: exDemMom
Authorities stated that they would be medically checked, but some are carriers who may not outwardly display any symptoms .

exDemMom:" Without symptoms, Ebola is not contagious."

True , but it takes 2 - 10 days after exposure before the first symtoms may show.
What if someone developes symptoms after going through airport screening and/or medical testing , and is among the masses of the Hajj when symptoms show ?
Don't you beleive that the Islamo-facists/ISIS is already aware of the potential destruction that could be wrought world-wide ?

41 posted on 09/15/2014 4:16:02 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: scouter; ElenaM

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/health-science-technology/ebola-outbreak/map-how-the-ebola-outbreak-spread-through-africa/

The link shows a map with brief comments on the spread of Ebola. Tells in personal terms how it can spread and multiply, along with the numbers. The comments for the first dot on the map:

Dec 6, 2013 — The outbreak’s first suspected victim, a 2-year-old Guinean boy living in Meliandou village, dies after four days of fever, vomiting and diarrhea. The boy’s mother dies 10 days later, followed by his 3-year-old sister on Dec. 29, and his grandmother on New Year’s Day. Over the next few weeks, a local nurse and a village midwife also die.

I’m no expert, but the only thing I’ve seen on Excel spreadsheets that identifies the source can be easily changed/deleted and is under “file”, then “properties”.


42 posted on 09/15/2014 4:18:18 PM PDT by 21twelve (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2185147/posts 2013 is 1933 REBORN)
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To: 21twelve
I have not heard a reasonable explanation why the “developed” world would have a lower rate of transmission. Better sanitation of course, but that sure doesn’t seem to prevent the transmission of the common cold.

Or how there's diseases that people catch usually only while in the hospital such as mrsa or c-dif. Clearly they can't sanitize enough to stop this so what makes ebola different?

Plus, in the developed world a sick person can travel to and from work (bus, train, elevator, etc.) and cover 20 miles in a day. A guy in some small village in Africa might travel 4 blocks in a week.

And how good are busses, trains, elevators, etc actually sanitized?

Our health care system is obviously better, but there are only a certain number of hospital beds. A quick search showed 10,000 in Minnesota. Maybe goes up to 50,000 with the National Guard, etc. setting up field hospitals. How many will still not be able to get treatment.

Plus first responders and doctors will be among the first to get sick and die.

43 posted on 09/15/2014 4:19:02 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

Doesn’t bother me if they infect Mecca.


44 posted on 09/15/2014 4:21:15 PM PDT by Dallas59
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To: scouter

I’m sorry. CFR is Case Fatality Rate, to calculate number of deaths.


45 posted on 09/15/2014 4:23:02 PM PDT by ElenaM
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To: scouter

I hope you are as wrong with these projections as the Global Warming charts....


46 posted on 09/15/2014 4:25:07 PM PDT by GraceG (No, My Initials are not A.B.)
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To: DouglasKC
How often do they clean? I don't know. But a search did find that one could adopt a bus stop to take care of. Except they canceled it due to cost. Although they still will mail you a garbage bag if you are an existing volunteer! (Hmm, probably 75 cents to mail a 20 cent garbage bag!)

Adopt-A-Stop Program
Adopt-A-Stop
Sorry, we are not accepting any new applications until further notice.

This program was affected by cost reduction measures implemented in an effort to reduce King County Metro Transit's major budget shortfall for 2009 and 2010.

Transit will continue to provide assistance to all existing volunteers.

To have plastic liners mailed to you, please call the Work Center at 206-477-3850.

47 posted on 09/15/2014 4:29:33 PM PDT by 21twelve (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2185147/posts 2013 is 1933 REBORN)
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To: Dallas59
Dallas59:" Doesn’t bother me if they infect Mecca."

Me either , .. but they all return home.
Even the ones who participate that come from the USA

48 posted on 09/15/2014 4:34:51 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Dallas59

Over 11,000 people from the United States do that Mecca thing every year. I was surprised that it was that low of a number. Although Ebola is a lot like buying a lottery ticket - “It only takes one!”.


49 posted on 09/15/2014 4:35:00 PM PDT by 21twelve (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2185147/posts 2013 is 1933 REBORN)
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To: exDemMom
Without symptoms, Ebola is not contagious.

Tell that to the nurse that got Ebola from the Liberian/US diplomat then passed it on to a patient in the hospital while she was not symptomatic. We are being told a lot of things to keep people from panicking that are not adding up to truth.

While I understand the need to keep the public calm some of the lies just help the spread.

50 posted on 09/15/2014 4:41:37 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: DouglasKC
DouglasKC:" Our health care system is obviously better, but there are only a certain number of hospital beds. A quick search showed 10,000 in Minnesota. Maybe goes up to 50,000 with the National Guard, etc. setting up field hospitals. How many will still not be able to get treatment."

Dont forget that WHO/CDC numbers are not totally accurate
There are UN workers there whose job is is to turn away the sick since hospitals are already overwhelmed, and understaffed.
Last count I saw by an U.N. official at one of the hospitals in Nigeria was that 30% were turned away.
DouglasKC:"Plus first responders and doctors will be among the first to get sick and die."

Nigeria has already lost 50% of its medically trained personell.

51 posted on 09/15/2014 4:41:41 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: GraceG

Right now Ebola is centered in west Africa. I wonder how long it will be before Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Sudan and Egypt are infected. Then it would likely hit Syria and Iraq.

This might take care of the ISIS problem


52 posted on 09/15/2014 4:44:35 PM PDT by Zenjitsuman (New Boss Nancy Pelosi)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

Gee whiz...and they’re all going to Saudi.

That’s just...awful.


53 posted on 09/15/2014 4:50:00 PM PDT by Rich21IE
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To: DouglasKC
DouglasKC:" How many will still not be able to get treatment."

Treatment is to keep the patient hydrated through early treatment of anti-diuretics, , saline IV's , and balanced electro-lytes.
Saline IV's are already in short supply in the US.
Don't forget that some 30% of people who come to the overwhelmed hospitals are being turned away by UN/WHO/CDC and return home for care, thus infecting their families.

With medical treatment there is a 30% survival rate.
Without medical treatment there is a 10% survival rate.

54 posted on 09/15/2014 4:57:11 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt; Dallas59
Dallas59:" Doesn’t bother me if they infect Mecca." Me either , .. but they all return home. Even the ones who participate that come from the USA

And if it hasn't already happened then what exactly is stopping radical Islamists from purposely exposing themselves to the disease and then traveling to the US and Isreal and infecting as many people as possible? We know they have no problems doing suicide bombings. How is this any different?

55 posted on 09/15/2014 5:04:51 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: Rich21IE
Rich21IE:" Gee whiz...and they’re all going to Saudi."

And then they come home ... Home to the USA .
Maybe your local hospital can handle 2 , maybe 4 Ebola patients at a time.
But what does your local hospital do when there are 20 patients , and there is no more room,pateints in the hallway, and some staff may already be showing symptoms.
Then what do you do when there are 30 patients who are turned away each day ?
Now you get the picture of what is happening in West Africa where they have already lost 50% of their trained medical staff , and have to rely on volunteers.

56 posted on 09/15/2014 5:05:32 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: DouglasKC
DouglasKC:" How is this any different?"

EXACTLY TRUE !
It's not different, in their mind

57 posted on 09/15/2014 5:08:43 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

What happens when it gets loose in a petri dish like San Francisco?


58 posted on 09/15/2014 5:09:00 PM PDT by tacticalogic
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To: tacticalogic

I would like some opinions from those who think this is serious and are preparing to shelter in place.

What is the point you batten down? The first few cases in a major city? Cases reported in a hospital within 100 miles?
Cases at your local hospital?


59 posted on 09/15/2014 5:12:50 PM PDT by Gadsden1st
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt
consider the Hajj Someone on the Ebola Surveillance board stated that there were 77,000 Nigerians scheduled to participate this year.

Oh My Allah!....the Horribility!

60 posted on 09/15/2014 5:13:55 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate "Republicans Freed the Slaves" Month.)
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