Posted on 10/12/2014 4:26:02 PM PDT by ElenaM
Welcome the the New Whirled Order of Amerika,
where lies are truth,
where the Science is settled
and NO ONE IS RESPONSIBLE or ACCOUNTABLE !!
Actually we’re lucky it only survives 6 days.
Many more common viruses last up to months.
Yes.
I am comparing the stated transmission vectors of the two pathogens—infected body fluids—to determine how quickly Ebola can spread throughout the population of the US. Do you have a pathogen you think is a closer match to Ebola? If so I’d be interested in another comparison.
Even the most methodically cleaned places, such as ICU units, contain infectious material (MRSA is a fine example.)
Given that the infected nurses were doing their best to remain healthy and taking CDC-recommended precautions, I have no doubt that Ebola could cause just as much mayhem as noro, or roto for that matter, in any school, office, or other location into which it is introduced.
I’m quite serious about comparing Ebola to another pathogen with the same transmission profile/vector. If you have another pathogen with which to compare, please let me know.
I have no idea, sorry. I seriously doubt it, though, since the CDC is having the staff at Presby using paper gowns, etc. rather than HazMat gear.
My whole family had a bout with Norovirus last Spring. It is no fun trying to take care of a sick new born, a sick 4 year old, my wife, and myself. Both of our mothers came over to try to help out and both got sick as well.
Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in all age groups in the United States.
Each year on average, norovirus—
causes 19-21 million cases of acute gastroenteritis, andcontributes to 56,000-71,000 hospitalizations and 570-800 deaths, mostly among young children and older adults
Across all ages, 16% of all acute gastroenteritis in the community is caused by norovirus, and 12% of acute gastroenteritis cases that get outpatient care are caused by norovirus.
People can get norovirus illness at any time during the year. But, it is most common in the winter. Also, there can be 50% more norovirus illness in years when there is a new strain of the virus going around.
I had Norovirus about a week after Thanksgiving last year. Geez, that was awful. I missed a week of work and I broke a rib I puked so hard.
http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2014/10/us_hospitals_ready_to_treat_eb.html
The recommended procedures to be used with ebola patients in US hospitals are discussed there. Along with some pics of the gear they’re wearing.
BTDT, it was a miserable four days around here.
My daughter got rotavirus at age 14 about a dozen years ago. What a horrible illness. She was throwing up 10 times an hour and had bloody diarrhea as well. She was admitted for 24 hours and got multiple bags of IV fluids. I can’t even imagine what a serious outbreak of Ebola would do to our system of healthcare.
Funny how the CDC mandates that monkeys coming into the USA have to be quarantined but not people with deadly diseases.
Any enveloped virus would be closer. Herpes, Hep D, coronaviruses (upper respiratory mostly), and a number of other hemorrhagic viruses like Bunyaviridae.
Given that the infected nurses were doing their best to remain healthy and taking CDC-recommended precautions, I have no doubt that Ebola could cause just as much mayhem as noro, or roto for that matter, in any school, office, or other location into which it is introduced.
Yes, like I said the noro survival is an order of magnitude longer, and it is not easily killed by detergents or bleach. If Ebola were like that there would be a million dead by now in Africa. OTOH the envelope that makes Ebola more fragile makes it much more lethal.
Hmmm, compare Ebola to Herpes, simplex 1 (aka cold sore) I'm assuming? So you want to compare Ebola transmission to Herpes Simplex 1 transmission?
Hep D has the same transmission profile as HIV. Again, not a match for CDC's Ebola profile.
I'm guessing you're thinking Hanta for bunyaviridae? Respiratory vector, which makes its profile very different than that CDC insists for Ebola.
I'm looking at the rate of transmission in the population given the stated transmission vectors. If I used corona or hanta, exdemomom would have kittens insisting I'm spreading misinformation about Ebola and it's airborne status.
Noro makes the most sense to me because it has the closest transmission profile--infected feces, vomit, etc. --to that put forward for Ebola. We can discuss the particular differences between Noro and Ebola, and how those differences affect the two pathogens' rates of spread, but your suggested alternative pathogens don't share Ebola's transmission profile.
If Ebola were like that there would be a million dead by now in Africa.
How do you know there aren't? MSF says the official counts aren't even close to accurate, are off by a factor of at least five. How do you know there won't be a million dead Africans by the end of the month? Given the many, many times the virus has upended official pronouncements of what it can and cannot do, I'm leery of any assurance that we know XYZ.
So let's say that Ebola's transmission is a fourth of that of noro based upon reduced environmental persistence. That's five million cases of Ebola in the US alone (20m annual noro cases/4). Given a 70% mortality rate, that's 3,500,000 dead.
I should’ve noted that the 3.5M dead does not take into account any vaccine, post-exposure treatment, etc. It’s just raw numbers.
Very bad math. First of all, noro is already endemic, ebola is not. Think of ebola like malaria. When malaria strikes here (happens fairly often), they track, isolate and spray any infected mosquito populations. At most we end up with a handful of cases. Malaria used to be endemic from Florida to Michigan (actually all the way to the Arctic). Now it is gone.
Granted mosquitoes are the only vector for malaria (a very fragile protoplasm) not contact, not fomites. But the seriousness with which we treat it is representative. Ebola will never be endemic here unlike noro.
Ok. You should also consider disinfection. There are reasons they run around with bleach sprayers in Africa: cheap and effective.
May God have mercy on them, and upon us all!
Our government is now openly engaging in biological warfare against we, the people of the USA.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.