Posted on 10/24/2014 8:02:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
It is not a mirage. In the Deep South, Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn is surging.
Of all the polls in the field in October in the Peach State, Nunn has tied or enjoyed a slight lead over Republican nominee David Perdu. On Friday morning, a CNN/ORC survey showed Nunn with her widest lead yet – 47 to 44 percent – over her Republican challenger. A third party candidate is drawing another 5 percent of the vote while 4 percent remain undecided. That poll also found incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal trailing his opponent, Democrat and former President Jimmy Carter’s grandson, Jason Carter.
Republicans remain justifiably skeptical that Nunn, despite being a strong recruit for Democrats, can pull off a victory in Georgia. While she is capable enough, and the state could shift in her direction to give her a plurality of the vote on Election Day, that race would head to a runoff in January. While CNN/ORC estimates that Nunn would receive a majority of the vote in January, CNN concedes that polling cannot model a hypothetical runoff electorate months after the midterms.
In order for Nunn to win in November (or January, for that matter), she will need to syphon off just enough of the state’s more enthusiastic Republican voters to make up for what pollsters estimate are 2010 levels of excitement among pro-GOP partisans. A recent Insider Advantage poll suggests that is possible – that poll found Nunn securing the support of just under 10 percent of Georgia’s GOP vote while Perdue netted less than 8 percent of Democrats.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Anyone who decries the vicious tactics of Democrats while at the same time thinks they will allow this Senate election to escape their hands is beyond naive.
The GOP will NOT win the Senate.
The GOP will lose House and Governor seats.
Because they stand for NOTHING.
She’s not her dad. If her last name weren’t Nunn, she would not even be in this election.
Ditto Jimmy Carter’s grandson running for governor of Georgia this year.
IF it does it is only because of the old family name recognition.
I hope this does not go that way. But the one thing that is true is that if a candidate does not get 50% plus one vote then there will be a run off. There are Libertarian and Independemt candidates that are polling at around 5% which is what is making this close in the polls. It will be all about turn out
I agree.
And the media will make the main story on how the Repubs blew it.
And they will be telling the truth for a rare occasion......
Put your seatbelts on. It ain’t gonna be pretty.
“The GOP will NOT win the Senate.”
I’m not sure they want to. Taking the Senate means leading, responsibility. Why put yourself through that when you can sit back, criticize and reap all the DC goodies. Seems to me, for years, they’ve done everything possible to come close but lose.
You obviously do not live in Georgia. Obama has been attacked over and over. Both Deal and Perdue have ads out hammering Carter and Nunn over their comittment to Ocare excessive spending, and ever increasing regulations.
So much for not having an agenda except “we’re better than Obama”.
I’ve been asking all along what the Republicans are giving us to vote for in November.
The answer, as you so eloquently pointed out, is: NOTHING.
The follow-on to that question is how will things change from today if the Republicans win the Senate and hold the House.
The answer is: NOTHING WILL CHANGE.
Add to that the cr@p that the GOP-e unleashed on the conservative wing of the base during the primaries, and your predictions are spot-on.
I expect the GOP to be shocked and saddened come November 5.
For years, we have had two worthless, unprincipled empty-suit GOP senators here in Georgia. I suppose there is a longing for the past here, or at least names familiar from the past.
Highly likely methinks. There is a demographic shift in GA much bigger than the South in general. Been tracking that closely for awhile now.
Couldn’t agree more.
Exactly. I don’t know about the House as they saved themselves, for now, with the 2010 Gerrymandering. But the Gov loses may be huge. And even if they manage to eek it out on Nov 4, the handwriting is on the wall with the HUGE demographic shifts. 2016 and beyond could prove to be the end of our Republic.
I don't need to. I see the Republican "play it safe" narrative playing out all across the country. Even Scott Walker here in WI is doing it.
If you don't stand your ground, and promote bold conservative principles while pointing out the failure of your opponent's, you're gonna lose. Exclamation point.
Obama has been attacked over and over.
Perdue doesn't need to attack Obama. What Perdue and Republican candidates nationwide need to do is start promoting real conservative solutions, point out the failure of the Dems, the corruption of the Obama administration, and give voters a choice.
So far, the choice is "Well, I support statist policies too. Please don't call me a meanie!"
For over six years now the job market has been in the crapper.
Purdue apparently had some involvement with outsourcing. The Dems zeroed in on this and have been beating him over the head with it.
Having fingerprints anywhere near outsourcing makes you toxic in the present environment. GOPe surely would never acknowledge that though.
The fix is in. We will probably not get the Senate.
” she will need to syphon off just enough of the state’s more enthusiastic Republican voters”
How can, in 2014, a democrat vote for a democrat? And if you throw a Republican in the question, it only means that people are completely insane. I mean, literally, without exaggeration.
If Hillary wins in 2016, she likely does so with a Democrat Senate. The Senate election map in 2016 is as friendly to Democrats as this year’s map is to Republicans.
1/3rd of the judiciary has now been appointed by Obama. That’s in just 6 years. Obama with another 2 years and then Hillary with a filibuster-free Senate to do her bidding would mean that they could stack the judiciary to the point where we’d be digging out for decades.
Conservatives could get the pendulum to swing back to the right, and liberals across the nation could be kicked out of office en masse, but those judges are going to stick around, messing things up. If the libs don’t like a new law that the conservative Congress passes? If the people of a conservative state pass a religious liberty law that the homos don’t like? They’ll challenge these laws in court and have their robed thugs knock them down. To the leftists, control of the judicial branch is the ultimate veto pen. Unchecked power.
In Nunn’s case, recent polls now show her leading among women by double digits. Combine this with the state of Georgia’s electorate now being more than 40% black + Hispanic, and I’m certain that this once-solid state is going to be giving us trouble in the future.
Georgia is 31% Black and 9% Hispanic (per another thread earlier this morning). The outcome of the election is going to hinge on whether the Dems data-driven GOTV operation (Catalist) performs as well as it did in 2012.
Knock-and-Drag (ie directly harassing and browbeating people to get them to the polls) of microtargeted voters is an effective technique that the GOP hasn’t caught onto.
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