Posted on 10/30/2014 1:36:09 PM PDT by Laissez-faire capitalist
You don't suppose the Rats are up to dirty tricks, do you?
I mean who would possibly stoop so low as to put out false information in order to discourage turnout? Not our Rats. Even they wouldn't stoop that low.
Unless they felt they had to.
It's time for Congress to step in and REINFORCE SCOTUS' 2008 ruling, upholding voter ID and stop this Early voting crap which seems to extend longer and longer every election. IT'S OBVIOUSLY TO FACILITATE MULTIPLE VOTING AND THERE'S NO OTHER REASON FOR IT.
MEXICAN CITIZENS VOTING IN OUR ELECTIONS HAS GOT TO STOP. LOCK AND LOAD!!!
Something else to consider: Democrats tend to be the ones who vote heavily in early voting, while Independents and Republicans tend to vote later.
This is due to the Democrat’s turnout model, in which they attempt to get people’s votes locked in as early as possible to preclude any last-minute decisions to either vote for another candidate or not vote at all. Once a person votes, they can’t change their mind if the candidate they voted for shows up in bed with a dead girl or live boy the weekend before the election ...
So, given that, the right measure isn’t whether the Democrat is up (even way up) in early voting. It’s whether they are up enough to offset the Republicans and independents who will vote on election day.
Consider this ... Braley could be up by 15 points, but in realty he needs to be up 20 points in order to eek out a close victory. Being up 15 points in early voting, therefore, results in a 5 point loss.
Among those who either have already voted or are likely to vote, 47% are for Bruce Braley and 47 % are for Joni Ernst. T he remaining respondents either express a preference for someone else or decline to state a preference.
This is simply an exit poll of early/mail-in voters. Remember the exit polls in 2004? They had Kerry winning by 5-6% points.
Usually Democrats are in front even in Steve King’s district.
The biggest problem is RINO David Young in Iowa’s 3rd who is far more liberal than Boehner’s best friend Tom Latham. Latham is okay for his district and votes with King 90% of the time.
“Boehner, who was on day 26 of a 33-day trip, skipped only one of Iowa’s four congressional districts: U.S. Rep. Steve King’s district in conservative northwest Iowa.”
Be funny if Steve King is the only GOP congressman left in Iowa. That wouldn’t be a bad thing provided the Republican voters are still voting Ernst, for the SoS & AG candidates while abandoning David Young.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents report that they have already voted; of those,
54% report they voted for Braley and 39% report they voted for Ernst. The party
registration of those who have already voted is 41% Democrat and 40% Republican,
and Braley leads in the votes already cast because of a distinct advantage with
registered independents.
The party registration of the sample overall is 35% Democrat and 39% Republican.
Among voters who are not registered in either party, Braley leads overall by 51% to 41%.
**************
Appears the independents are currently the ones carrying the vote for Braley.
I think it might be more of an issue of “who sent in the ballot?”. It’s my understanding that dems always do the registration push efforts purely so many people are registered to vote that never will actually vote - then somebody else can vote for them.
So if on election day the votes collected don’t come close to representing the mail-in ballots, you have your answer.
Do they publish the vote count as they are cast early?
So this is just another poll?
Yesterday’s news had Ernst ahead by 4-5 points. She’s been ahead by 1-2 points. I don’t know where this news comes from.
Voted for Ernst already.
Braley has a 54-39 lead among early voters who work for the Braley campaign.
The ‘independent’ sample size is about 160 voters.
10% would, I think, be well within the margin of error.
No. It only matters who counts the votes. I’m sure my dog and dead grandfather voted democrat
The 2012 NRA video may be hurting Ernst. Rachel MAddow and Hillary and hitting her hard
The poll we just completed with a representative sample of 802 Iowa voters is consistent with the findings of polls by CBS News /New York Times and Loras Co llege that the race between Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst is a dead heat
Braley only has a very narrow advantage in early voting. This was just a survey. Ernst will be fine
more “early voting” BS
One election day for 24 hours. No absentee ballots except for deployed military. ID needed to vote. Registrations closed 3 weeks prior to election. Registration records all wiped clean every 5 years.
actually there is a chance that the GOP could walk away with all four congressional districts in Iowa - two open seats and the GOP is competitive or leading in both
What I want to know is how they know? Are they already counting votes?
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