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Why Ebola Quarantines Will Grow Larger -- And More Troubling
Forbes ^ | 10/30/14 | Scott Gottlieb

Posted on 10/30/2014 3:56:30 PM PDT by BlatherNaut

The critical reckoning over forced quarantines is still to come.

Consider this scenario.

Sometime in January or February – as the Ebola epidemic explodes out of West Africa – we’ll start experiencing larger, more frequent outbreaks in American cities. With the flu as a background to confound suspected cases of Ebola, public health departments will be hard pressed to “track and trace” all of the potential “contacts” when perhaps dozens of Ebola cases pop up in their cities.

Unable to pinpoint who might have come in close contact with Ebola, and be at risk of contracting the virus, they will reach for their most absolute tool – forced quarantine – as a way to mitigate threat amidst uncertainty. The number of people who will be placed into forced quarantines could easily number in the hundreds.

If this scenario sounds far fetched, take a closer look at the accelerating epidemic in West Africa. If the rate of spread doesn’t start to subside soon (there are some encouraging signs of deceleration in Liberia, but spread is accelerating in Guinea and Sierra Leone) it’s just a matter of time before Ebola breaks out to a region with closer connections to the U.S. — like Latin America. Once it goes to such a market, and becomes epidemic, the U.S. would be importing far more than the sporadic case.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: africa; ebola; epidemic; giunea; liberia; quarantine; sierraleone; westafrica
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To: BlatherNaut

Fun things to consider:

At the onset, Flu and other relatively non lethal viruses will present with the same symptoms. Although Ebola will likely be much more prevalent than it is now, the prevalence of Ebola will still very low even if there are let’s say 3000 US cases this winter. That would be a prevalence of .001%. According to Flu.gov about 5-20% of people get Flu per year, so with round numbers, lets say that’s a prevalence of around 10% or 10,000 times greater than Ebola.

Now if hospitals start testing for Ebola when people come in with non-specific symptoms, it is likely that a rapid test will be employed because an answer can be obtained quickly; generally less than 30 minutes. That might sound like a good thing except that rapid tests typically have a higher rate of inaccuracies (false positives and false negatives) than the gold standard confirmatory test which takes longer but is more accurate. It could be that the false positive rate is one or two percent.

Therefore, it is more likely that a person with non specific symptoms will have a false positive test for Ebola than a true positive test for Ebola because the prevalence of the Flu is on the order of 10,000 times greater. Until confirmation with the gold standard test is obtained, the patient with a positive screen will be a presumptive Ebola case and the state will decide on that person’s disposition. If all cases testing positive for Ebola are quarantined together, inevitably more people will contract Ebola needlessly.

I think that’s the pathway to medical martial law.


21 posted on 10/30/2014 5:22:42 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est. President zero gave us patient zero.)
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To: BlatherNaut; null and void

This explains why travel from infected countries has not been restricted.

People are starting to call for the quarantine of other people.

I imagine the powerful find this helpful in two ways. First, the fear of contacting ebola reduces the chances of any public demonstrations, and second, when people see their neighbors being loaded into trucks, they won’t do anything to stop it. Soon it will be their turn.

Bring out your soon to be dead.
Ping Nully.


22 posted on 10/30/2014 5:31:38 PM PDT by fanfan ("If Muslim kids were asked to go to church on Sunday and take Holy Communion there would be war.")
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To: petercooper; All

This is purely anecdotal, so not at all “scientific”.

My mother had serious allergies (mold among other things). She couldn’t even take books from the library because of these. When flu season came around, she inevitably got into trouble when the flu compounded her problems.

Her doc gave her a flu shot every single year to try to ameliorate the situation, and often these didn’t help.

In spite of no family history, she developed Alzheimer’s. I really think the flu shots may have caused it, and what is even more disturbing is a report I read last year that the flu shot is not very effective in the adult population after the age of 60 or 65, offering only about 7 to 9% of seniors any protection.

I am now in that age group, and refuse the flu shots. I would rather go from the flu than from Alzheimer’s (as if I get to choose, right?).

But, everyone must make these choices for themselves, considering their individual health issues.


23 posted on 10/30/2014 5:33:12 PM PDT by jacquej ("You cannot have a conservative government with a liberal culture." (Mark Steyn))
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To: BlatherNaut

IMHO India and China are at the most risk from Ebola.


24 posted on 10/30/2014 5:35:01 PM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: bicyclerepair

I’m more or less like you. I have had two in my lifetime.

None the less, if someone should show up positive for Ebola in your community, not having the flu could actually prevent you from being quarantined.


25 posted on 10/30/2014 6:37:36 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Dunam, Duncan, man what infections these folks brought over.)
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To: BlatherNaut; All

26 posted on 10/30/2014 6:37:58 PM PDT by SandRat (<Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: BlatherNaut; neverdem; ProtectOurFreedom; Mother Abigail; EBH; vetvetdoug; Smokin' Joe; ...

Bring out your dead! The Dark Man cometh! Bring out your dead! The Dark Man cometh! Bring out your......

(Since all records of obama's past were lost in a tragic boating accident and fire, no one can be certain that the guy in the red circle isn't him...)

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

27 posted on 10/30/2014 7:27:09 PM PDT by null and void (And I think Kevin Bacon is doomed.)
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To: BlatherNaut

Why, it’s almost as if our fascist Government WANTS us in ‘camps’ of some sort.

Nah. That’ll never happen...*Whistles Past Graveyard*


28 posted on 10/30/2014 7:30:25 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: BlatherNaut

Very informative article.


29 posted on 10/30/2014 7:32:03 PM PDT by independentmind
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To: Whenifhow

Bush and Obama Executive Orders in chronological order


Executive Order 13295 of April 4, 2003

Revised List of Quarantinable Communicable Diseases

By the authority vested in me as President by the
Constitution and the laws of the United States of
America, including section 361(b) of the Public Health
Service Act (42 U.S.C. 264(b)), it is hereby ordered as
follows:

Section 1. Based upon the recommendation of the
Secretary of Health and Human Services (the
``Secretary’’), in consultation with the Surgeon
General, and for the purpose of specifying certain
communicable diseases for regulations providing for the
apprehension, detention, or conditional release of
individuals to prevent the introduction, transmission,
or spread of suspected communicable diseases, the
following communicable diseases are hereby specified
pursuant to section 361(b) of the Public Health Service
Act:

(a) Cholera; Diphtheria; infectious Tuberculosis;
Plague; Smallpox; Yellow Fever; and Viral Hemorrhagic
Fevers (Lassa, Marburg, Ebola, Crimean-Congo, South
American, and others not yet isolated or named).
(b) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which
is a disease associated with fever and signs and
symptoms of pneumonia or other respiratory illness, is
transmitted from person to person predominantly by the
aerosolized or droplet route, and, if spread in the
population, would have severe public health
consequences.

Sec. 2. The Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion,
shall determine whether a particular condition
constitutes a communicable disease of the type
specified in section 1 of this order.

Sec. 3. The functions of the President under sections
362 and 364(a) of the Public Health Service Act (42
U.S.C. 265 and 267(a)) are assigned to the Secretary.

Sec. 4. This order is not intended to, and does not,
create any right or benefit enforceable at law or
equity by any party against the United States, its
departments, agencies, entities, officers, employees or
agents, or any other person.

Sec. 5. Executive Order 12452 of December 22, 1983, is
hereby revoked.

(Presidential Sig.)B

THE WHITE HOUSE,

April 4, 2003.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2003-04-09/pdf/03-8832.pdf


Executive Order 13375 of April 1, 2005

Amendment to Executive Order 13295 Relating to Certain

Influenza Viruses and Quarantinable Communicable Diseases

By the authority vested in me as President by the
Constitution and the laws of the United States of
America, including section 361(b) of the Public Health
Service Act (42 U.S.C. 264(b)), it is hereby ordered as
follows:

Section 1. Based upon the recommendation of the
Secretary of Health and Human Services, in consultation
with the Surgeon General, and for the purpose set forth
in section 1 of Executive Order 13295 of April 4, 2003,
section 1 of such order is amended by adding at the end
thereof the following new subsection:

``(c) Influenza caused by novel or reemergent influenza
viruses that are causing, or have the potential to
cause, a pandemic.’’.

Sec. 2. This order is not intended to, and does not,
create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural,
enforceable at law or in equity by any party against
the United States, its departments, agencies, entities,
officers, employees or agents, or any other person.

(Presidential Sig.)B

THE WHITE HOUSE,

April 1, 2005.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2005-04-05/pdf/05-6907.pdf


Executive Order 13674 of July 31, 2014

Revised List of Quarantinable Communicable Diseases

By the authority vested in me as President by the
Constitution and the laws of the United States of
America, including section 264(b) of title 42, United
States Code, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Amendment to Executive Order 13295. Based
upon the recommendation of the Secretary of Health and
Human Services, in consultation with the Acting Surgeon
General, and for the purposes set forth in section 1 of
Executive Order 13295 of April 4, 2003, as amended by
Executive Order 13375 of April 1, 2005, section 1 of
Executive Order 13295 shall be further amended by
replacing subsection (b) with the following:

``(b) Severe acute respiratory syndromes, which are
diseases that are associated with fever and signs and
symptoms of pneumonia or other respiratory illness, are
capable of being transmitted from person to person, and
that either are causing, or have the potential to
cause, a pandemic, or, upon infection, are highly
likely to cause mortality or serious morbidity if not
properly controlled. This subsection does not apply to
influenza.’’

Sec. 2. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order
shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the
head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget
relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order is not intended to, and does not,
create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural,
enforceable at law or in equity by any party against
the United States, its departments, agencies, or
entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any
other person.

(Presidential Sig.)

THE WHITE HOUSE,

July 31, 2014.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2014-08-06/pdf/2014-18682.pdf



30 posted on 10/30/2014 8:01:01 PM PDT by Ray76 (We must destroy the Uniparty or be destroyed by them.)
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To: BlatherNaut; null and void; Kartographer; 3D-JOY; abner; Abundy; AGreatPer; Albion Wilde; ...

Another good reason for a travel ban and securing our borders now.

Not that the current one-worlder regime would listen.

PING!


31 posted on 10/30/2014 8:11:33 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (The mods stole my tagline.)
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To: grumpygresh

3000 mgs. C , 10,000 i.u.’s D or D3, Omega 3, selenium get in the sun!
Olive leaf (Barleans liquid) is a good fighter, echinacea,and Elderberry syrup.
Keep up your probiotics and Multi’s.


32 posted on 10/30/2014 8:55:40 PM PDT by acapesket
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To: bicyclerepair

On the other hand, pneumonia shots and shingles shots are effective.


33 posted on 10/30/2014 9:01:29 PM PDT by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: BlatherNaut
"it’s just a matter of time before Ebola breaks out to a region with closer connections to the U.S. — like Latin America."

Or Canada.

So some readers of the article may now see as to why pre-Ebola quarantine measures are being discouraged. Soon enough, such measures would include every American because of possible contacts with others in an Ebola-affected country (our country).


34 posted on 10/30/2014 9:22:32 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: petercooper
Do you want any of the following vaccine constituents in YOUR bloodstream?•Ethylene glycol (antifreeze) •Phenol, also known as carbolic acid (this is used as a disinfectant, dye) •Formaldehyde, a known cancer-causing agent •Aluminum, which is associated with Alzheimer’s disease and seizures and also cancer producing in laboratory mice (it is used as an additive to promote antibody response) •Thimerosal (a mercury disinfectant/preservative) can result in brain injury and autoimmune disease •Neomycin and Streptomycin (used as antibiotics) have caused allergic reaction in some people.

If you eat almonds you are also ingesting cyanide. The quantities of the ingredients that you named are very small just like the quantities of cyanide in almonds. Both are of absolutely no danger.

35 posted on 10/30/2014 9:41:24 PM PDT by cpdiii (DECKHAND, ROUGHNECK, GEOLOGIST, PILOT, PHARMACIST, LIBERTARIAN The Constitution is worth dying for.)
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To: null and void

haha, I see now, it DOES look like him!


36 posted on 10/30/2014 10:30:16 PM PDT by Shimmer1 (Just keep repeating to yourself, “All cultures are equal.”)
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To: -YYZ-

Never had a flu shot and never will. I can’t even remember getting the flu.


37 posted on 10/31/2014 3:36:21 AM PDT by petercooper (Liberalism = Amnesty = Open Borders = Illegal Immigration = Ebola = Obama)
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To: DoughtyOne
Black plague, Typhoid... You read these articles and wonder if they truly grasp the danger they are making light of. For each inconvenienced person, we could be talking about hundreds if not thousands of other people ultimately inconvenienced. Does that carry no weight at all? Evidently not.

On the flip side - not covering it in-depth while making decisions may open us up to even more cases of isolation/quarantine "for the public good" that is really another way for the Feds to exert even more control over us. I work with a guy who thinks that if the feds tell us to do something, it is our duty to do it w/o question. Another double-edged sword where we may be tempted to give up even more Constitutional rights because it seems to make sense at the time.

I'm for letting them do what they want and then giving them 10 years if they infect anyone else and shooting them if those they infect die - a couple cases of that and folks would do the right thing regardless of how it may inconvenience them

38 posted on 10/31/2014 3:51:28 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: acapesket

For Vitamin C I’m using liposomal vitamin C (it’s fat soluble with far greater absorption). Regular vitamin C is water soluble and very poorly absorbed.


39 posted on 10/31/2014 5:34:12 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est. President zero gave us patient zero.)
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To: trebb

Trebb, I don’t care if they cover it. It must makes a mockery of safety precautions when they act as if this person is being mistreated.

If she gets her way, then nobody gets quarantined. She’ll lay down the law for everyone else. Hey, you can demand it, but you can’t enforce it!

Now others will look to her case and realize they don’t have to quarantine either. How’s that going to work for you if someone next door is the person in question, and they’re at your super-market, or their kids are in your kid’s school?


40 posted on 10/31/2014 7:42:14 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Dunam, Duncan, man what infections these folks brought over.)
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