Posted on 12/01/2014 7:25:16 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Over the holiday weekend, political reporters were shocked to learn that the nonpartisan political handicapper Charlie Cook believed that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton only had a 25 or perhaps 30 percent chance of even running for president in 2016. Cook reportedly told a group of conference attendees in Kansas City that, following Clinton’s “disastrous book tour,” it was unclear if she would continue to pursue high office.
Well, it turned out that this was a bit of misreporting via The Kansas City Star. Cook had actually said that Clinton only has a 25 or 30 percent chance of not running for the White House in 2016, an error which The Star eventually corrected. That error sucked all the oxygen out of a more interesting prediction that Cook made at the same conference relating to the Republican Party’s presidential nomination process. The political forecaster assured his audience that he was positive that the eventual GOP nominee would be either a Republican tea party senator or a Midwestern governor. The only person he was sure would not win the party’s nomination is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
“Bush has two issues working against him to win the Republican primary for the 2016 presidential election,” Cook said. “One is immigration reform, which he favors; and two, is his advocacy of education reform.”
Neither of those causes would sit well with Republican primary voters, Cook said.
He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest. He wouldn’t predict beyond that.
While the race for the GOP nomination in 2016 is still young enough so that polls are primarily measuring name recognition, the campaign will begin in earnest in the summer when Republican aspirants descend on Iowa to compete in the state’s coveted Ames Straw Poll. Given the relative lateness of the hour, it is worth taking a critical look at the polls.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of the 11 most regularly cited Republicans who might be running for the nomination (and there are many more than that), only five have an average support measured in the low double digits: Former GOP vice presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), Fox News host and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Bush.
If Cook’s wisdom is to be proven accurate, Paul is the only one of these contenders with a shot at the nomination. Given the relative disinterest the GOP base has had in supporting Paul’s brand of disengaged foreign policy, as the threats posed by the Islamic State and other threats to American national security abroad proliferate, it is unclear that Paul will be able to convince the party’s base to abandon hawkishness before the first primary votes are cast in a little over one year.
The only other potential Republican presidential hopefuls who even manage to net more than 5 percent support in the RCP average that also meets Cook’s criteria are Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), both of whom secure the support of widely divergent elements of the Republican coalition.
The Republican Party will have a lively primary season and does not lack for talent. That is virtually assured. The Democratic Party’s nomination, by contrast, is already fait accompli.
Third reason Bush won’t get nomination. He’s a Bush.
One of three: IN’s Mitch Daniels, WI’s Scott Walker or TX’s Ted Cruz.
I could get behind any one of them. Let’s just say NO to another RINO.
Any of these will work for me: Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Sarah Palin, Mike Lee or even Mitch Daniels.
I will not vote for any of the Republicans mentioned.
It is Gov.Sarah Palin I will vote for as our candidate. No one else.
RE: It is Gov.Sarah Palin I will vote for as our candidate. No one else.
What if she doesn’t ran?
Let us hope so.
If we get another RINO, the GOP is dead, cooked, done, stick a fork in it.
And properly so.
May RINOs die in a cesspool full of Obama and Hillary stuff.
She will never run - and I would never vote for someone who quit their job halfway through their term as Governor.
There’s nothing to her - Palin is the GOP version of Hillary Clinton.
And I’m sick of the racial and gender politics in this country.
I’ve had my fill of them to last me a lifetime.
My hopes are with Scott Walker....he has the thickest skin of all candidates added together, including dems.
Everyone save Sen.Cruz is a RINO. As for Cruz, read my tagline.
P.S.: I think he is functioning as a stalking deer for Palin.
What we REALLY need is primary reform. All on the same day would be ideal, but it will never happen. The liberal states always have the earliest and by the time the rest hold them, the field has been narrowed to the lesser of the evils. Makes me sick.
Exactly my thought.
Mitch Daniels cant win. No charisma. Ted Cruz has charisma, is Latino, and a Conservative.
Lord help us..please . Let him be elected. Scott Walker will do, too.
> “He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest. He wouldn’t predict beyond that.”
Cruz and Walker. Could have predicted that from reading FR for 5 minutes.
And Charlie Cook gets paid for this?
Bring back Freddie and the Dreamers to rewrite their song...”Do The Teddy”! Cruz/the Nuge 2016.
I’ll vote for Palin or Cruz.
They are the only two I’d have any trust or confidence in to genuinely try to change America back in the direction that is needed.
Ditto your prayer.
The Democrats would love it if Walker ran. Getting rid of Walker in Wisconsin would be a boon to them, a dream if you will. Without him, Wisconsin is likely to revert to a Democrat/union controlled state.
This would be even sweeter for them if they could defeat him in 2016.
I hope Walker is only testing the waters for 2020 or 2024.
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