What the Midterms Mean for 2016: A Republican White House victory is not guaranteed, but possible.

National Review ^ | 12/12/2014 | Michael Barone

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

As I explained before, not every Republican is 100% on every issue, but every Republican candidate I ever voted for was much closer to my views than the Democrat alternative.

Here in CA, while we have been blessed with large number of conservative Republicans that I have enthusiastically supported over the years including RR, Bruce Herschensohn, Tom McClintock, John Rousselot, Bill Dannemeyer, B-1 Bob Dornan, Duncan Hunter, H.L. Richardson, Bay Buchanan etc.

We have also had some establishment types like Pete Wilson and George Deukmejian too but they were always VASTLY preferable to the Dem alternatives.

[JRandomFreeper]

That was then. This is now. You have republicans running that have the exact same policy goals as the Dems you hate.

That isn't about perfection, that is about Republicans being liberals.

You are for your party, regardless of how liberal it is.

I am a conservative, not a Republican.

Your support of liberalism is noted.

/johnny

[reasonisfaith]

Things have come to the point that when you vote Republican you are voting Democrat.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

I am for conservative Republicans.

Third party is not a viable option.

[JRandomFreeper]

Not supporting liberal republican with your vote is an option.

You are a republican, not a conservative.

/johnny

[KC_Conspirator]

I felt after 2012 there was no hope of a Republican being elected POTUS again in my lifetime.

And I shared your view. For the reasons you give and then some.

I still feel bleak about it. Every presidential election the low information voters come out and vote for the democrat because the media and pop culture told them too. Luckily adults came out and voted in 2014.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

I provided you earlier with the list of all my votes for POTUS. And I have no regrets in each and every case. Ditto with all of my votes for governor and US Senate. And congress. Or state legislature for that matter.

I am not perfect. And neither is every candidate I have ever voted for. But I am realist. I don’t sit out elections. Voting third party is not an option in CA. And the Democrats are far worse than any Republican on the ballot.

You have to work with what you have. Politics ain’t bean bag. It is a dirty messy disgusting business. As RR once said, it is the world’s second oldest profession. There is no such thing as utopia or perfection. You have to work with the choices presented to you. My only realistic opportunity to advance the conservative cause is within the GOP primary.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

I am a conservative Republican.

I always vote for the most conservative candidate in the primary.

I have no issues with the Republican Party platform. The challenge is getting everyone to abide it.

I am also a Catholic. I have no issues with the Cathechism of the Catholic Church. The problem, as always, is to get everyone to follow it.

[Waryone]

There you are. I wondered when the Grubered republicans would come out of the woodwork. I couldn’t find too many of those cowards last night.

Were you posting while your dems with R’s next to their name republican traitors were raping this country? Now they are out here telling us to put some ice on it, snickering while they pretend what they did was the best thing for us.

So you don’t like dems, but you love voting for dems with R next to their names. When you’re voting for your dems with R next to their names, what do you like best about them, the fact that they love to lie about what they’re doing or the fact that they like to hide what it is they do? I know, perhaps it’s the fact that they intentionally do things in the dark so they can say they didn’t know and were “fooled” later on.

I will never vote for another liberal, dem or republican. I used to be one of a few like me, but you dems with R next to your name are making a lot more voters like me every day.

[onedoug]

No substitutes. CRUZ 2016.

[tanknetter]

Barone’s scholarly analysis aside, it is all about turnout. If the Democrats turn out the same numbers that they did in 2012, they will win again.

Not necessarily. Romney's turnout in 2012 was messed up because his campaign's GOTV app, ORCA, fell apart on election day. See Breitbart article here

Conversely, Obama's GOTV system (including Narwhal and Catalist) performed well. See PJMedia article here

Also recall that going into 2012 there was a lot of circumstantial evidence that Romney was going to win. He and his campaign were acting like winners the last week, and seemed really shocked that they lost. Conversely Obama and his campaign seemed pretty morose at about the same time, and somewhat surprised that they won. Hell, even Obama's big "victory" party was way, way, way low-key for a sitting incumbent President getting reelected. Like they were expecting to deliver a concession speech.

Add to that how Obama's totals dropped from 2008, while Romney made very slight gains from McCain, and there's a really good case to be made that Romney lost because of misplaced faith in technology to carry him over the finish line first.

Now there was talk a little while prior to the 2014 midterms that the NRC had a big new GOTV system ready to go for that election. I haven't read anything about it since the election, but some of the really interesting margins out there (McConnell's 15 points over Grimes, Gillespie nearly knocking off Warner) seems to indicate that 1.) the GOP GOTV system actually worked and/or 2.) the Dem GOTV system didn't work as expected. In all likelihood it was a combination of the two - motivated GOP voters being identified, targeted and incentivized to vote, with Dem voters being identified and targeted, but demoralized to the point of staying at home on election day. So, really, the point is that if the Democrats turnout at their 2012 numbers, while the Republicans turn out at their 2012 numbers as well, the GOP candidate loses. BOTH of those elements are required, and it seems like the GOP candidate does have a fighting chance in 2016.

[JRandomFreeper]

I am a conservative Republican.

No. You call yourself that because you may vote conservative in the primary, but in the general election, you vote Republican. Not conservative.

You are a republican. Not a conservative.

A conservative wouldn't be voting for a liberal republican with the same policy goals as the Dems.

/johnny

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

I reserve the right to define myself.

There isn’t a liberal bone in my body.

I don’t define you. You should not define me.

I deal with the choices I’m presented with and try to make the best choice available. I’m not perfect. And neither is every candidate I have ever voted for.

I’m tired of people saying it’s my way or the highway.

That only works if you live on a deserted island.

[JRandomFreeper]

I reserve the right to point out liberal republicans when I find them. You don't get to make those rules for others.

The problem is letting people 'define' themselves as conservative when they are really liberals.

And it is get conservative or lose. I don't care whether you like it or not. That's not my rule. That's nature. You won't get conservatives to vote for your liberal republicans in the general election. That's just reality.

/johnny

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Well you don’t make the rules, fortunately.

[JRandomFreeper]

Not my rules. Get conservative or keep losing.

That is nature.

As far as being 'nice' and letting you define yourself, yes, I do make those rules for me. I will point you out as a liberal republican. Nice went out the window in politics a while back.

/johnny

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Fine.

I’ll let you handle the Great Purges which you would be excellent at.

I always thought I was a conservative. My two favorite presidents were Coolidge and RR. My all time favorite US Senators were Joe McCarthy and Jesse Helms. My favorite congressman was John Ashbrook.

Love being defined as a liberal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JRandomFreeper]

Voting for liberal republicans this year defines you, not which politicians you liked way back when.

/johnny

[Blackirish]

You’re not debating with conservatives on this thread. You’re debating with nihilists who have given up on the two party system and pretty much just want to shut the government down. Not only that all news is bad news to these guy’s. Bunch of crybabies.

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

I didn’t vote for any liberals this year. Period.