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Blizzard 2015:How did the forecasts get it so wrong? (Gruber Modeling?)
CBS News ^ | 01/27/2015 | staff

Posted on 01/27/2015 3:11:05 PM PST by Kid Shelleen

It was supposed to be the storm of the century, a blizzard like no other that would dump two feet of snow on New York City and shut the Big Apple down for days.

Instead, New Yorkers awoke Tuesday to several inches of snow on the ground. Roads were mostly clear and the only headache was the fact the city had shut down the subways over fears of the impending snowstorm.

So what happened? How could the weatherman have gotten it so wrong? --snip-- Meteorologists are often at the mercy of imperfect computer models that aren't always reliable at this time of the year.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


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To: deport

‘_____Dix Hills.’

Lived for a short while in near-by East Northport, back in the ‘50’s.

I still have photo’s of myself exiting an igloo my father built during a blizzard in the 1940’s.
This was in Huntington, Long Island, New York.


41 posted on 01/27/2015 5:00:45 PM PST by USARightSide (S U P P O R T I N G OUR T R O O P S)
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To: Popman

Sounds like the forecast was settled science too.

Pray America is waking


42 posted on 01/27/2015 5:26:46 PM PST by bray (Palin/Cruz to the WH)
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To: USARightSide

I spent a little time Brooklyn area in the early 60’s in Uncle Sam’s army.
I however wish I had taken more time to really explore the area.


43 posted on 01/27/2015 5:35:32 PM PST by deport
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To: Blueflag

“6 hours before, one could look at publicly available RADAR images of the snow and easily discern that the big snow would miss the Eastern seaboard.”


But it didn’t miss the Eastern Seaboard——much of it was hit.

.


44 posted on 01/27/2015 5:37:42 PM PST by Mears (awesome.)
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To: Mears

you misinterpret the event.

it grazed the eastern seaboard. the real snow fall occurred out to sea


45 posted on 01/27/2015 5:43:34 PM PST by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc.;+12, 73, ..... Obama is public enemy #1)
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To: Mears

It was supposed to range from DC to Maine. Perhaps I should have been more specific, but the area that was supposed to get historical snowfall didn’t. I grew up in the region and we really didn’t think of Massachusetts and Maine as anything buy New England.


46 posted on 01/27/2015 5:46:49 PM PST by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur: non vehere est inermus)
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To: bert; Blueflag

Well there’s a hell of a lot of white stuff on the ground here in Eastern MA.

Maybe it’s cotton candy.

.


47 posted on 01/27/2015 5:52:12 PM PST by Mears (awesome.)
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To: Mears

is it more than three feet ? or just a good snow?


48 posted on 01/27/2015 5:57:29 PM PST by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc.;+12, 73, ..... Obama is public enemy #1)
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To: bert

Not 3 feet but,but close. It was a nasty storm.

.


49 posted on 01/27/2015 5:59:11 PM PST by Mears (awesome.)
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To: Mears

OK.

The hype was all about NYC.

Massachusetts not so much.

When I grew up in NY, the last winter I was there (76-77) we had snow up to the top of the garage door and the back door. No one called it historic. We called it winter.

Been in the American South since ‘77. Don’t miss winter up north.


50 posted on 01/27/2015 6:07:51 PM PST by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur: non vehere est inermus)
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To: bert

Tell that to the people who got 1.5 to 3 feet of snow.

Boston got 2 Feet.

Long Island, NY got a foot.

Parts of NJ got 10 inches.

My area of NJ got lucky.


51 posted on 01/27/2015 6:08:06 PM PST by Twink
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To: bert

Tell that to the people who got 1.5 to 3 feet of snow.

Boston got 2 Feet.

Long Island, NY got a foot.

Parts of NJ got 10 inches.

My area of NJ got lucky.


52 posted on 01/27/2015 6:08:07 PM PST by Twink
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To: Mears

LOL! Great!

My area of NJ got off easy this time but some got 10 inches. So far, this Winter has been easy compared to the last six. January 27 is the first snow day of this winter around here and that’s amazing! We’re usually up to about 3 by this time.


53 posted on 01/27/2015 6:11:47 PM PST by Twink
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To: All

Until this season, I think recent weather forecasts have been very accurate. I think they changed something in their criteria and it has to do with the insertion of global warming theory into predictive modeling.


54 posted on 01/27/2015 6:12:59 PM PST by newnhdad (Our new motto: USA, it was fun while it lasted.)
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To: Blueflag

I’ve spent a lot of time in upstate N.Y.-—brutal winters.

I love winter and detest heat so I’m staying right where I am.

.


55 posted on 01/27/2015 6:13:36 PM PST by Mears (awesome.)
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To: Blueflag

I remember grade and high school and early college with 2 feet and none of this hype. But, that’s not the region’s fault, it’s the fault of the media.

We used to have 5 snow days built into our school calendar but now we have none yet we get the same amount of snow, lol. We didn’t get 2 feet at a time every year but enough that it wasn’t catastrophic.

Some years we have no snow at all! Or rather no accumulation at all.


56 posted on 01/27/2015 6:18:38 PM PST by Twink
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To: Haiku Guy
The scenario that would’ve produced a lot of snow was that a low-pressure system would camp itself right outside of Sandy Hook and pump moisture inland for days. If that had happened, it would’ve been a huge storm. But the chance of that happening was always small.
The proper forecast would’ve been for a middle size snowstorm, with the small probability of a huge snowstorm. But that isn’t a very good story.
. . . and that is all that matters. Until and unless a Republican (or, rarely, a Democrat) politician is placed on the horns of a dilemma and guesses wrong. Journalists, having established the template that

We’re Doomed

,
are in a perfect position to second guess that politician after he under reacts to the (presumed) hype. The difference between the public official and the journalist is that the journalist only talks, and if he overhypes a predicted event it is “the man who is actually in the arena” whose decisions cost money and/or lives.
Maybe the solution is to sue the journalists for the cost of their exaggerations. Put them on the defensive.

57 posted on 01/28/2015 10:12:04 AM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ('Liberalism'; is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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