Posted on 01/28/2015 3:42:16 PM PST by vbmoneyspender
The 2015 New England Patriots ran 187 plays per lost fumble. Which, statistically speaking, is insane. This season's Patriots are such a black swan that, as data scientist John Candido explained to Sharp,
Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you'd expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances.
Which in layman's terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, [makes it] very unlikely that it's a coincidence.
It gets unlikelier still: After finding this outlier, Sharp went digging and expanded his search to the last 25 years. And when he ranked the teams, by season, by the highest number of offensive plays per lost fumble, four of the top six seasons recorded were by the Patriots. And the Patriots have led the NFL in the category in every five-year period since 2007.
This sort of thing doesn't happen by accident. It suggests that while the rest of the league was sleeping, Belichick was in his mad scientist laboratory looking for hidden points of leverage within the game and not only discovering them, but finding out a way to exploit them, too. Is this about deflated footballs? I very much doubt that 1.5 psi could account for such a gigantic disparity. In fact, Deflategate is probably the least likely explanation.
No, I suspect that what happened is that Belichick had the some stat-head do a big, Sabremetric work-up of football statistics and discovered that lost fumbles have a disproportionate impact on wins. And I suspect that after learning this, he made fumble rates a key metric in personnel decisions. And I suspect that he did further analysis on what types of plays are more likely to result in fumbles, and then altered his play-calling schemes accordingly. In short, I suspect that Belichick has been doing Moneyball in football without anyone else knowing it.
Seahawks 44, Patriots 9. Give or take a field goal. That is all.
And Parcells was crazy about stripping footballs for fumbles.
People hate ‘em, cuz they ain’t ‘em.
What annoys me about “deflategate” is that the press has been far more interested in that than in any of the Obama scandals, particularly the IRS scandal. I also wish the press would retire the practice of adding the suffix “gate” to scandals; that is SO played out.
To understand Bill Belichick you Need to google and read about his father Steve who was an Assistant Coach & Scout for Navy at Annappolis for more than 30 years.
Bill was learning from his father how to study film when he was 10 years old! He is the greatest NFL coach of his generation because he has been studying the game for more than fifty years with a laser like focus that most don’t appreciate...
Yeah, I agree, but I will admit it has been sort of fun to pretend to be outraged by 2 psi in a leather ball. Has there ever been a crime so foul since Abel framed Cain?!??
Not only is there a wad of jealousy around but everybody knows the Pats practice with krappy wet muddy footballs. bellichick doesn’t tolerate the condition of the ball used as an excuse for anything. And it has to be a bit of a treat for the ball handling players to have a ref wiping the footballs off between every play. Attention to detail is the difference between winners and losers and that’s how I played in the day and how I run my business. Losing sucks and I try really hard not to participate.
“People hate ‘em, cuz they ain’t ‘em.”
Yep
“Refer to the drive chart, noting the position on the field and time usage.”
—
Sorry,but I’m not knowledgeable enough to be able to interpret that chart.
I’ll have to ask a son or grandson.
Thanks.
.
A deflated football is easier to grip which means it’s less likely to be fumbled, and more likely to be caught but doesn’t help in a blowout. Just like election fraud doesn’t help in a blowout election but makes a real difference in a close election. NE has been caught cheating in the past and that’s what they do. I believe they’ve probably been using deflated balls for years.
Second, Belichick is supremely self-confident. So much so that he doesn't feel the need to brag about how smart he is. Which means that he never talks about the innovations he has come up with and he is perfectly willing to keep secret innovations which allow him to keep winning. In the case of the fumble rate, it looks like starting in 2007, Belichick figured out how to change the game by changing how the Patriots approached fumbles. Since then, you haven't heard a peep out of Belichick on this innovation even though most other coaches would have been falling all over themselves to brag about how clever they were in coming up with a similar innovation.
sorry, dahlin'
Thribbit!
Now I know how to spell Bronx
Doesn’t matter Paolo… I had a brain fart, although Ray Lewis is a felon…I meant Ray Rice.
$44 M to Roger Goodell in a NON PROFIT NFL?
Can we see the “Peter Principle” in place here?
This guy might be more obtuse than Zero.
Exactly, look how many other Coaches have gone to the hurry-up offense and wait and see how many will incorporate the unbalanced line with ineligible receivers next year, probably even that moron from the Ravens, Harbaugh will figure it out!
Go Pats!!
Football fumbles are not random events, therefore, they are not be expected to follow a normal distribution. There is too much intervention by technique and training.
The author lays out a basic assumption right at the outset, and it is incorrect, and then he goes on to bamboozle the lumpen readership like a good Gruber would.
It’s not important if you think the Patriots are innocent or guilty. What’s important is that you don’t let people slip beliefs past your rational gate without you knowing that you just got tricked, like those poor fools in Ferguson, or like an Obama voter.
That’s what Liberals do ... and on this subject, what a lot of posters here have been up to without themselves even knowing it. Too emotional in their hatred for the Patriots, so it feels good, but makes them stupid.
I hope conservatives come into power. But if this idiotic feeding frenzy and triumph of jealousy and emotion over critical thinking is how they’ll (we’ll) think and govern - why bother? This is what we already have.
That’s why it’s ... disturbing.
I posted an excerpt of the article. The article doesn't start out with the assumption you point to and the assumption isn't a basic one. The basic assumption the author relies on is the fact that the New England Patriots have averaged one fumble for every 187 plays since 2010 while the league average is one fumble for approximately every 100 plays. So in saying that the author is bamboozling his 'lumpen' readers, are you saying that that statistic is factually incorrect?
Any sandlot kid knows he can dig his fingernails into a deflated football. This gives the football more rapid spin/rotation and accuracy. The strings are the only thing you can dig your fingernails into at 13 + psi-
If your fingers ain`t on the strings in a scramble, byebye.
A 12.5 + psi football is impossible to dig your fingernails into [dangling participle, I know]
Did anybody check Tom Brady`s fingernails in that game?
At 13 +psi, in cold weather, that ball is like a small hard boulder when it comes at you truying to catch it...jammed finger knuckles is the result.
A deflated ball won`t jam your knuckles.
We ain`t stupoid, y`know.
Check that ball boy`s bank account- Is he drivin` a Ferrari?
Have your fumbles ruled to be incomplete passes.
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