The $500 Million Powerball Jackpot And Why It's Not Worth Buying A Ticket

BI ^ | 2-11-2015 | Andy Kiersz

[blam]

Andy Kiersz
February 11, 2015

The Powerball lottery drawing for Wednesday evening has an estimated jackpot prize of $500 million.

While that's a huge amount of money, buying a ticket is still probably a losing proposition.

Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at is "expected value". The expected value of a randomly decided process is found by taking all of the possible outcomes of the process, multiplying each outcome by its probability, and adding all of these numbers up. This gives us a long-run average value for our random process.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes: If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then in the long run, the game will make me money. If expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

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[al baby]

I would retire to a cruise ship around the world and send gary sinese a boat load of cash also Jim here at Free Republic be a charter member of the million a year club

[al baby]

Yes that would be the way to do it almost make it a ponzi scheme

[SJSAMPLE]

The idea are 1:1 that you get to keep your money. Can’t beat those odds.

[Mr. Jeeves]

You’d never have a moment of peace unless you moved to a deserted island.

You could no longer live a suburban US lifestyle. On the other hand, you could easily buy your way into Monaco or Switzerland or Singapore, where your new wealth would barely be sufficient to attract any notice - and the pesky relatives couldn't really afford to come visit you :)

[SE Mom]

I went into small (4 of us) office pool this time. I haven’t done it before but they shamed me into it this time.

I did buy some Florida state lotto tickets though- it’s at $12mm which is a more “manageable” amount. If I won it after fed(no state) taxes it would be roughly $7.5mm. I would call the lawyer and accountant first. Set goals and how to achieve them. .invest to give me a comfortable but not extravagant income ..spend a little to get it out of my system. .give my two weeks notice and then take some time to think and pray about it all. No sudden decisions other than retirement.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

The increased odds of winning by buying one ticket vs not buying is incalculable.

[DuncanWaring]

If my math is right, roughly 60% of all tickets sold match NONE of the drawn numbers.

[Terry L Smith]

I spend ‘the lottery ticket price’ at a gas station for a cup of coffee.

The coffee is usually warm, fresh and tastes good.
There is a sweetener packet or two.
There is a creamer packet, or two or three.

So, from a lottery ticket for something most likely never to happen, to a tangible cup of coffee.

I think i won.

[super7man]

That said, your odds of winning are nearly the same whether you play or not. ;-)

I figure if God wanted me to win the lottery, I would find the winning ticket on the sidewalk. Odds of this happening are about the same as buying a winning ticket.

Obviously, God does not trust me with that kind of money so I'll just have to muddle along on what I got.

[Bubba_Leroy]

In many states...you don't have to reveal your name. You can just create a LLC or Trust.

Tomorrow morning, the convenience store clerk that sold the winning ticket will be on the local news. Some reporter will pay the convenience store manager a few bucks for the security video showing the winning ticket being sold. If the winner does not come forward that day, the video will be on the news the next day.

Good luck staying anonymous if you win a $500 million lotary.

[Bubba_Leroy]

Pick a number and then don’t buy a ticket. When they pick the winning number, you will be really, really hoping that they don’t call your number. Chances are pretty good that you will win when they don’t pick your number.

Of course, in the very remote chance that they pick your number, you will be really sad.

[5by5]

My best so far was 5/6 with the wrong number one digit off for $8M. That was a heart breaker!

[jjotto]

Actually, I think there are only a couple states where you can remain anonymous. That’s for good reason so prizes don’t just go into politicians’ pockets.

And then there’s the case of the $14 million Hot Lotto ticket bought by the head of security for the multi-state lottery. He tried to claim it anonymously and is facing felony charges.

[PLMerite]

“So far, I’ve done well on Powerball. I’ve never purchased a ticket. The money saved adds up over time.”

An interesting strategy: Pretend you have a gambling habit, but take the money you would otherwise surely lose and invest it instead.

[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

I call it a tax on the statistically challenged.

[xp38]

Good Luck to any freepers holding tickets. I cannot buy any being in Canada but wish you all the best.

[SamAdams76]

My boss was one of those “The lottery is a tax on people that are bad at math” guys... I told him at 180 million to 1 the odds were infinitely better than getting rich working for him.

Well that's true. If you want to get rich, work for yourself!

[Squantos]

Now yer talkin.........stay safe Slim !!

[aumrl]

Yes
well said
Thanks

[roadcat]

So far I’m breaking even on lotteries. I don’t buy tickets, and I don’t win anything... don’t lose anything either.

Then you are content with your life. Congrats! Contentment is synonymous with happiness. I never play the lotteries, as I was a math major and know the odds are horrible. You're much better off not playing the game.