Thought Experiment: What the 2012 election could have looked like with 100 percent turnout

Washington Post ^ | 03/20/2015 | By Philip Bump

[nascarnation]

See post at #11

[Svartalfiar]

What? This map makes no sense, and I’m wondering how they got these numbers. Counting illegals is the only way they could possibly do that, and only in some states.

Texas is in no way deep blue. Given the latest numbers, maybe light blue but doubtful even that. Most latinos I know are at least more Conservative, and the more they learn/participate, the more Republican they lean.

2004: Bush took home ~49% of the Latino vote.
Recently, Cornyn managed to get 48% of Latinos.
Greg Abbott just grabbed 44%. (And in the Dem primary, Davis only managed ~44% of Latinos.)

Also, deep blue GA. Repub Gov Nathan Deal hit 47% of Latino voters in the last election. The only way GA could possibly be deep blue is if they’re assuming off of black voters. Who are much more reliably Dem than any Latinos.

And, from Cruz’s poll a couple years ago:

- By contrast, 40 percent of Texas Hispanics identified as conservative; while 36 percent identified as moderate. Only 18 percent claimed to be liberal.

- Sixty-eight percent of Texas Hispanics support increasing border security as part of immigration reforms; 10 percent opposed it. Another 20 percent were indifferent.

- In Cruz’s non-competitive campaign against Sadler, the poll’s respondents said they voted for Cruz over Sadler by a margin of 38 percent to 36 percent

http://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/ted-cruz-and-hispanic-vote

[Vigilanteman]

Pretty much true. But blacks in the Mississippi Delta, for example, have an entirely different mindset with their counterparts is, say, central Philly. For starters, they actually have a work ethic and far less addiction to government handouts.

Ditto for whites in, say, Vermont or Oregon.

Both are less inclined to vote simply because they sincerely don't give a rat's a$$ about the outcome.

This model is based on racial demographics who don't vote and assuming they will vote in exactly the same percentages as those who do. This may be partly correct, but less so because they are also far less likely to base their entire identity on race.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Get outside the Pittsburgh and Philly metros, and most of PA is really quite conservative.

[ilgipper]

That’s true, but one has to assume the cites are filled with people who do not vote. Aside from those philly precincts with 110% turnout. :)

[IDontLikeToPayTaxes]

Definitely shows you where Texas is headed.

I spent a little time in Texas last year.

I call it "North Mexico."

[Robert DeLong]

Let’s say, just for argument sake, that your estimated guess is correct. 10% of 15-20 million would mean 1.5-2 million illegal aliens are voting. Easily enough to sway an election I would say. Especially since all of those votes are going to 1 party.

[Will88]

All illegals aren’t adults of voting age. They might sway some local and even state elections, but probably only in blue states where they are heavily concentrated.

But we’ll never know because in the areas where they are concentrated, the local election and law enforcement authorities probably have no incentive to investigate for voter fraud. Many officials probably enable it.