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Scott Walker's Iowa dilemma
Politico ^ | 5/17/2015 | Jennifer Shutt

Posted on 05/17/2015 3:44:14 PM PDT by VinL

There’s a game of chicken going on in Iowa right now.

When Jeb Bush revealed this week that he will blow off the state GOP’s famed August straw poll, he left the future of the event to Scott Walker. Since all of the top tier presidential prospects are waiting to see who will compete before they commit to the straw poll this year, if the Wisconsin governor — and current Iowa front-runner — declines to participate, there’s a good chance Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and other candidates will follow suit.

Walker, who’s publicly non-committal, leads in recent Iowa polls, may have the toughest decision of all — he’s damned if he plays and damned if he doesn’t. If he participates and loses, he risks looking like a fading candidate who peaked too soon. But if he plays it safe and skips the straw poll, he could badly alienate Iowa Republicans — more likely than not ending his status as the state’s perceived front-runner. At the same time, if Walker and every other top candidate skipped it, the damage to the 47-year-old governor would be minimal.

The importance of the straw poll to the state GOP was highlighted Saturday night when, with 11 candidates present to speak at the Iowa Republican Party Lincoln Dinner, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kauffman opened Saturday’s confab with a video emphasizing the poll’s relevance. He was followed by Sen. Chuck Grassley, the leading Republican in the state, who stressed the seriousness of the tradition.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republican insiders think Walker should compete in the straw poll,according to this week’s edition of The POLITICO Caucus, a weekly pulse-taking of the most important activists, operatives and elected officials in the early states.

“Participate and you are expected to win, and must win,” said a top Iowa Republican, who is uncommitted and — like all 77 respondents – completed the weekly questionnaire anonymously in order to answer candidly. “Skip, and everyone thinks you’re a coward. Then watch your standing in the Iowa polls continue to drop. Walker needs to suck it up and use the event to cement himself as the frontrunner in the race.”

There is immense pressure from grassroots activists, who love the event and see shying away from it as proof of weakness or aloofness. “To be a frontrunner in Iowa with this standing, Walker needs to demonstrate that he can compete and win in a straw poll,” said another Republican.

But just as many GOP insiders said the Wisconsin governor would be foolish to fall into that trap. “Walker will underperform, if he goes,” said one. “He should avoid Tim Pawlenty’s outcome.” Another added, “No upside. Only downside to this event.”

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson have already telegraphed that that they will play to win.

While Ron Paul’s campaign was obsessed with straw polls the previous two presidential elections — the then-Texas congressman finished second at Ames in 2011 — his son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, isn’t as committed. He’s more focused on winning actual elections and has told aides that he’s not as interested as his father in artificial tests of his (snip)

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/scott-walkers-iowa-dilemma-118034.html#ixzz3aREuk4c9


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ia2016; iowa
Meanwhile, I think Ted Cruz will win it. So much so, that I will put up a $50.00 contribution to FR, as against anyone who wants to take all or part of it with their candidate. Loser(s) pledge their FR contribution after the straw poll. (Hope I'm not breaking any FR rule here).
1 posted on 05/17/2015 3:44:15 PM PDT by VinL
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To: VinL

You’ve nailed it.
Cruz has earned this accolade.


2 posted on 05/17/2015 3:46:10 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks ("If he were working for the other side, what would he be doing differently ?")
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To: VinL

What Walker (and Cruz) needs to do in Iowa is to contact the voters likely to vote in the actual caucuses.


3 posted on 05/17/2015 3:47:52 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (We need a conservative electable candidate in 2016)
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To: VinL

Walker, who currently has the practical backing of Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, can afford to take a chance and bypass the Straw Poll. Governor Branstad, not incidentally, has said that the Iowa Straw Poll has outlived its usefulness. Not a bad strategy by Walker, considering who has his back.


4 posted on 05/17/2015 3:51:45 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: VinL

Cruz will win the Iowa straw poll? Or Iowa Caucus? Or the nomination? Or the White House?

I mean, I like it all...just wondering what you meant.


5 posted on 05/17/2015 4:04:08 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: jjotto

I’m glad you said that...actually Branstad said it’s a scam almost...and it is...to raise funds for the Iowa GOP. To vote in the poll, you have to pay like 50 dollars per person. Thus, it costs the campaigns a zillion dollars to get voters there.


6 posted on 05/17/2015 4:05:09 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: VinL

All the candidates should skip Iowa, putting the state where it belongs, way down on the relevance scale - Maine too.


7 posted on 05/17/2015 4:07:28 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (`)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

I think Cruz wins it all. He’s right for the current climate. People want a straight shooter. All the others are scrambling to establish policy positions based on polls. Cruz, on the other, knows where he stands- so, now he plays to his strength; i.e. his debate/ legal training. He will build his case- research, facts, evidence, preparation, argument - and methodically present a case (federalism v socialism) so compelling that a majority jury will side with him.


8 posted on 05/17/2015 4:27:37 PM PDT by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

They’ve made some changes to try to make it less like a zoo.
Random assignment of candidates’ space, tickets $25/30 include parking, standard food concessions instead of candidates being expected to give out free food, etc. Atleast everyone seems a little more sober about its limited meaning.


9 posted on 05/17/2015 4:28:53 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: VinL

Could change (( IF )) Walker speaks of the Elephant in the room..

You know like; TED CRUZ.... Walker must not like elephants..


10 posted on 05/17/2015 4:32:56 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited (specifically) to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: VinL

Why do we have straw polls, caucuses, and primaries in the first place except to allow the American people, instead of big fat-cat party operatives in smoke-filled rooms, to choose the nominees they want to run for office?

To ‘’blow off’’ Iowa’s straw poll, as Jeb Bush has done, is an insult to the Republicans of Iowa. And if Scott Walker follows suit, he’ll show himself to be just as arrogant, self-centered and doofus-like as Jeb himself.


11 posted on 05/17/2015 5:03:16 PM PDT by Bluestocking
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To: VinL
.................he’s damned if he plays and damned if he doesn’t.

He should go ahead and play. As long as he places in the top 25, he'll be OK..................

12 posted on 05/17/2015 5:55:42 PM PDT by varon (Para bellum)
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To: VinL

I think that Walker beats Cruz, if Walker brings up that Cruz wants to increase legal immigration (i.e. H1-Bs) 500%, in an era where Americans are being displaced from their jobs by these wage-slaves left and right.

On the other hand, Iowa is an Ag state, and unfortunately the trend there is to think of wage-lowering workers as some kind of ‘blessing’. (Not by Iowa FReepers, of course. )


13 posted on 05/17/2015 5:58:00 PM PDT by Yossarian
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To: C. Edmund Wright

$25-30

http://www.eventbrite.com/e/2015-iowa-straw-poll-tickets-16868095929


14 posted on 05/17/2015 7:44:34 PM PDT by iowamark (I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy)
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To: VinL

I agree with all of that.


15 posted on 05/18/2015 12:23:06 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (www.FireKarlRove.com NOW)
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To: varon

What would be the advantage of not playing?
For Jeb Bush, I can see it...he’s got a lot of money but if he tanks at the straw poll, he could be toast.
For Walker, the only advantage I can see is if he thinks his “frontrunner” status is not real.


16 posted on 05/18/2015 2:50:34 AM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: VinL

I think Cruz has earned it and will win it too - a lot of folks have sat up and actually taken actions to volunteer and/or donate to him. If he wins, I’ll add a $50 “bonus” to my usual FR contributions just out of pure happiness for the positive movement.


17 posted on 05/18/2015 3:41:33 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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