Market timer Tom McClellan sees stocks set up for ‘ugly decline’ as early as Thursday

MarketWatch ^ | August 17, 2015 | Tomi Kilgore

[Perseverando]

McClellan is bullish today, but he expects definitive peak in stocks between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26

Tom McClellan loves doing what financial advisers tell you not to do. He tries to time the financial markets — to the exact day, if his charts align just right.

At the moment, they are telling him to be bullish on the stock market for all of his trading time frames, including those that trade every few days, weeks and months. But bulls should be ready to flee, as soon as this week.

That’s because McClellan said his timing models suggest “THE” top in stocks will be hit some time between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. He expects “nothing good for the bulls for the rest of the year,” he said in a phone interview with MarketWatch.

McClellan doesn’t have a strong view on how far stocks could fall, just that it will probably be an “ugly decline” lasting into early 2016. The good news is that his models suggest it should not be as bad as the 2007-to-2009 bear market, when the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.37% plunged as much as 57%, or the 2000-to-2002 selloff when the index plummeted 49%.

“I try to get the direction right, and I let the magnitude take care of itself,” McClellan said.

From his home in Lakewood, Wash., about 10 miles outside of Tacoma and nearly 3,000 miles from Wall Street, McClellan scours over what seem to be hundreds of charts covering the stock, commodities and bond markets, and even those following weather patterns, architecture billings and sunspot activity.

The West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot also relies heavily on the widely used technical indicator that bears his surname, the McClellan Oscillator (MCO). Developed in 1969 by his parents, Sherman and Marian McClellan,

[Perseverando]

Ran across this interesting article a few minutes ago.

Personally, I'm not willing to state an opinion on this. Just putting it out there for those who are far more market savvy than me to provide a little FRiendly analysis.

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Sounds like a guy who has shorted the market and wants to make his predictions come true.

[GodAndCountryFirst]

The economy hasn’t grown an inch and has not created any NET new jobs in about eight years. So, of course the market will crash. It amazes me that there was ever a bull market. We’re still in a deep depression - which has only been getting worse - and only fake government numbers have kept this from becoming common knowledge.

[RayChuang88]

The problem is that there are a HUGE number of "bargain hunters" with a lot of cash on hand waiting to jump into the stock market if we have a 15-20% decline (the stock market could use a 15% correction soon). Those "bargain hunters" will likely limit how far the stock market may fall.

[Leaning Right]

Sounds like a guy who has shorted the market and wants to make his predictions come true.

It's also possible that he's in the lucky-guess business. By that I mean he makes a rather specific guess as to market direction.

If he's right, jackpot! There will be book tours, interviews on financial shows, investment newsletters to sell, etc. And if he's wrong, just hang back for awhile until people forget the wrong prediction.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Yet the news media, Obama and his henchmen, etc. all tell us the economy is growing, unemployment is down, manufacturing is on the rebound, etc. etc.

[Starboard]

He tries to time the financial markets — to the exact day, if his charts align just right

***************
Its not about the market technical really. Its all about the Fed. It IS the market now.

[Perseverando]

More likely that Buffett and Soros have shorted the market and Obama is making it happen. McClellan probably is aware of it and is sharing the info.

McClellan reads charts. The writing is on the wall.

And as Forrest Gump says, “that’s all I have to say about that” (especially since I’m saying more than I actually know.)

[pieceofthepuzzle]

“especially since I’m saying more than I actually know..”

That could get you elected in many places.

[Nervous Tick]

>> Personally, I’m not willing to state an opinion on this.

Aw, c’mon... no balls.

Very well, I’ll state *my* opinion on this: I have no idea whether his timing is right, or not.

See... that wasn’t so hard, was it? :-)

[SunkenCiv]

The late (I think he's passed?) Robert Drach was a market timer that the late Paul Kangas used to have on NBR a few times a year. He had this growly little voice and was always interesting to listen to, but the only time he was right on a stock, that I remember, was Old Kent Bank as a takeover candidate (and it was taken over, now part of the hideously stupidly named 5th 3rd). Market timing is a medicine show act.

[Perseverando]

Oh there they are. Yes, I have an opinion now, interesting article, and don’t forget the article says “as early as Thursday.”

Thanks for the help. BTW, nice tagline.

[MuttTheHoople]

Clickbait. What financial forecaster would stay in business if he didn’t predict the Apocalypse?

[Perseverando]

Obama and the progressives make it so much easier to believe in the Apocalypse.

[Senator_Blutarski]

It amazes me that there was ever a bull market.

The bull market resulted from a lack of options. Many people see no other place to go.

[plain talk]

Exactly. With interest rates near zero there is nowhere else for money to go. In fact one can get more in dividends from many stocks than in bonds. The fed has artificially created low interest rates and this demand for stocks. Another point is the government NEEDS low interest rates to keep the interest on the debt low. Because Obama has significally increased debt we face a balloon note once interest rate rise. The interest on the debt alone will consume much of the budget

[servantboy777]

Most market/economic indices are down or choppy at best.
China’s economy is screeching to a halt, exports slowing considerably.

Commodities heading downward, Russian economy in horrible condition. Canada announced recession.

Bottom line, I don’t believe diddly squat coming out of our gubbamint. We are constantly lied to/deceived into the notion all is rosy and the economy is growing.

I watch the economic calander daily. There is an endicy or two now and again that looks positive, but most pointing to regional factory activity, durable goods, GDP really look pretty bad.

[Ozark Tom]

These articles are not recent, but did forecast trends relevant to current headlines. This is the background and in-general prediction based on an economics theory opposed by those currently at the controls.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/nikolai-kondratiev-s-long-wave-the-mirror-of-the-global-economic-crisis/11161

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/christopher-quigley/kondratieff-waves-and-the-greater-depression-of-2013-2020

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/christopher-quigley/kondratieff-waves-greater-depression-update

[Chuckster]

Dow 13000. A little bird told me. DOG

[ForYourChildren]

Thanks for the links. Interesting stuff.