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Two Impossible Things That Could Happen in 2016
Townhall.com ^ | August 28, 2015 | Michael Barone

Posted on 08/28/2015 8:29:31 AM PDT by Kaslin

"One can't believe impossible things," Alice objected.

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," the Red Queen replied. "When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

You may be reading this sometime after breakfast, and six is a pretty large number of impossible things. But looking at developments in the 2016 campaign, I can see two impossible things -- impossible in the sense that almost every pundit (including me) ruled them out -- that might happen in the weeks and months ahead.

The first impossible thing is that Hillary Clinton might stop being the undisputed frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

There have been two good reasons for believing this to be impossible. One is that even in the swirl of the email controversy, a very large majority of self-identified Democrats continue to have positive feelings about Clinton. That includes the 25 percent or so nationally and the 40 or so percent in New Hampshire who say they'd vote for Bernie Sanders right now.

That shows that one Democratic constituency -- the Birkenstock Belt -- is willing to consider an alternative. What would happen if another -- black Democrats -- should prove willing to do so as well?

The answer: disaster for the Clinton campaign. As fivethirtyeight.com analysts have pointed out, even if Clinton loses Iowa and New Hampshire, the next big set of contests come in Southern states, where blacks make up nearly half or more of Democratic primary voters. And black voters tend to coalesce, in primaries as well in November, for one candidate.

That's a rational response for people who are self-conscious members of a persecuted and discriminated-against minority. In the past, black Democrats have been nearly unanimous for one candidate even over another who has strong claims on their support -- e.g., Robert Kennedy over Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton 40 years later.

Right now, Clinton has the kind of black support Humphrey would have had if Kennedy had not run. But what if Joe Biden entered the race with the explicit or strongly implied support of President Obama?

Maybe that could happen. On Monday, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said he "wouldn't rule out the possibility of an endorsement" in the primary and added that "no one in American politics today" knows more about running for president than Biden and that Obama considered his Biden VP pick as "the smartest decision that he has ever made in politics." Hmm.

The second impossible thing that could happen is a vast expansion of the Republican primary electorate -- and general election turnout. Sparked, at least initially, but not necessarily permanently, by Donald Trump.

The New York Times reported last week that other Republican candidates' strategists discount Trump's current poll leads on the grounds that the polls "rely on feedback from many Republicans who are unlikely to vote" because they aren't registered Republicans or haven't voted in past primaries.

It's true that past Republican turnout has been low. In 2008, 37 million Americans voted in Democratic primaries and caucuses and only 21 million voted in Republican contests. Hillary Clinton, while losing the nomination, got almost as many votes as the three leading Republicans put together.

Similarly, many analysts blame Mitt Romney's 2012 loss on conservatives staying home. Barack Obama got 3.5 million fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008. Usually incumbents who drop that far lose. But Romney got only 1 million more votes than John McCain in 2008.

Even in a period of close partisan divisions, when one party's turnout increases it can win decisively. Democratic total votes increased 10.5 million when Obama won in 2008. Republican total votes increased 11.5 million when George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004.

One metric we have so far suggests a huge increase in Republican votes: 24 million people watched the Republican debate in Cleveland August 6. That's almost triple the previous Republican high and double the Democrats' record -- which came in 2008, when the party's primary and general electorate expanded.

Donald Trump accounts for much of Republicans' big audience, but perhaps not all: some 6 million watched the second-tier candidates' pre-prime-time debate. The big question now is whether another candidate can entice Trump's predominantly older, non-college-graduate enthusiasts. Hmm.

Will these two impossible things happen? After all, the Red Queen only said that you could believe impossible things. But they did happen to Alice.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; US: Delaware
KEYWORDS: 2016election; berniesanders; birkenstockbelt; brainlessjoe; delaware; demoncratprimary; donaldtrump; election2016; florida; hillaryclinton; hitlery; huberthumphrey; iowa; jebbush; joebiden; michaelbarone; newhampshire; newyork; republicanprimary; robertkennedy; townhall; trump; vermont
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1 posted on 08/28/2015 8:29:31 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Donald Trump could do it.


2 posted on 08/28/2015 8:32:22 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: Biggirl

Correct


3 posted on 08/28/2015 8:33:21 AM PDT by Kaslin (He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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To: Kaslin
I was hoping the two impossible things were Hillary gets indicted and convicted, and Obama gets impeached.
4 posted on 08/28/2015 8:36:17 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
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To: Kaslin

I wish Ben Carson would hit some black churches and talk about his faith and his childhood.

You never know what could happen.


5 posted on 08/28/2015 8:36:23 AM PDT by struggle
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What is so impossible to believe about Hitlary imploding? I predicted this over two years ago with certainty to anybody who would listen (and they all called me crazy). The second part of this prophecy is that somebody (my pick Fauxcahontis) would rise up out of the ashes, and the media would go into light speed to whip up a fauxcahontis savior of the world frenzy like you have never seen nor believed. I think at least half of part two will happen, but I am less sure the savior will be SpreadingBull, though I still believe her perfectly timed appearance will happen with 70%


6 posted on 08/28/2015 8:43:19 AM PDT by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
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To: Kaslin

I think we can say with certainty that 2016 will probably go down as one of the most interesting presidential races in American history.


7 posted on 08/28/2015 8:47:45 AM PDT by dowcaet
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To: dowcaet
knows more about running for president than Biden and that Obama considered his Biden VP pick as "the smartest decision that he has ever made in politics." Hmm.

He went on to say, "Who the he*l would assassinate me with Biden in the wings?".

8 posted on 08/28/2015 8:50:05 AM PDT by GeorgiaDawg32 (www.greenhornshooting.com - Professional handgun training.)
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To: dsrtsage

they all called ME crazy too...

But I showed ‘em.

I SHOWED ‘EM ALL~!!


9 posted on 08/28/2015 8:55:35 AM PDT by Mr. K (If it is HilLIARy -vs- Jeb! then I am writing-in Palin/Cruz)
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To: struggle
Here's my pet theory.

Yellow Dog Democrats which deserted the Democratic party in droves after the 1968 commie takeover of the Democratic convention only vote when there is a “strong” alternative on the ballot. They came out for Nixon, and Reagan and gave them vote massive landslides. They seem to be attracted to strong personalities with strong opinions, even if they don't agree with all of them.

I think this is where Trump is getting a lot of his support and if true it spells doom for the others in the primary and for any Democrat in the general, because polls wont accurately reflect how strong Trump is, if he is attracting voting who don't usually vote and/or are not even registered to vote.

10 posted on 08/28/2015 8:57:00 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: Kaslin
What would happen if another -- black Democrats -- should prove willing to do so as well?

Just as with the "Marsha" Coakley - Scott Brown race, the bruthas won't turn out for an icy white b*tch.

11 posted on 08/28/2015 8:57:51 AM PDT by Jim Noble (You walk into the room like a camel and then you frown)
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To: dsrtsage

I think the fix is in for Liawatha - she will run as Biden’s VP, with a one term promise from Biden.


12 posted on 08/28/2015 8:59:13 AM PDT by Jim Noble (You walk into the room like a camel and then you frown)
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To: Kaslin
Despite missing the call along with virtually every other conservative and Republican pollster in 2012, Michael Barone remains a respected number cruncher with real conservative credentials.

It is too bad that in this article he does not come out with real data to answer the question which perennially plagues the Republican Party, whether we lose because we have not loosened up enough to entice the mushy middle or do we lose because we haven't tightened up enough to energize our muscular base?

We conservatives have argued ever since Ronald Reagan walked off with two of the greatest landslides ever that the Republican Party was throwing away its birthright when it despises its own conservative base. Since then we have lost the popular vote in national election after national election, as I recall five of the last six of them, and every time we have sought to accommodate moderates.

Many conservatives are energized by Donald Trump believing that he is a muscular conservative. It is clear that he is robust but it is not clear that he is a conservative. It seems to be clear that that his candidacy, whether intentionally or not, will strike a blow at the Republican establishment who have given us accommodationists ever since Ronald Reagan. But it is not clear that Trump is a conservative nor is it clear that he will govern as a conservative in the unlikely event that he captures both the nomination and the election.

It it is not clear whether Trump will energize the base sufficiently to overcome the amount of Democrats he is no doubt energizing or independents , especially women, whom he might be offending? That is not by way of an assertion that is by way of a question, hence the ?.

Nor is it clear whether Trump will garner enough Reagan Democrats, blue-collar workers especially, in the rust belt, and the coal industry, other middle-class people displaced by immigrants, to compensate for any losses he might generate elsewhere. It is entirely possible that even while Donald Trump wrecks the Republican Party (I can dream can't I?) he might at the same time be creating a whole new coalition reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's brilliant and unstoppable force. That is something to contemplate before breakfast.

I think we have to be very careful about being drawn up in an enthusiastic rush for Donald Trump because he generates enthusiasm within our conservative community. We have to be careful about projecting our perception of the world onto people who do not live and breathe politics. We have to be especially careful about projecting our values onto females who get their politics from the pages of Cosmopolitan magazine.

Michael Barone is opening a whole lot of options for us to ponder some of which might just not be impossible.


13 posted on 08/28/2015 9:00:27 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: Kaslin

Two impossible but beneficial things to hope for.

Both BigEars and slow Joe resign...today.


14 posted on 08/28/2015 9:08:07 AM PDT by GoldenPup
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To: Kaslin
Twas brillig, and the slithy toves 
 Did gyre and gimble in the wabe:
All mimsy were the borogoves,  
And the mome raths outgrabe.

Beware the Jabberwock, my son! 
 The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun  
The frumious Bandersnatch!"

He took his vorpal sword in hand: 
 Long time the manxome foe he sought --
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,  
And stood awhile in thought.

And, as in uffish thought he stood,  
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame
,Came whiffling through the tulgey wood, 
 And burbled as it came!

One, two! One, two! And through and through  
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head 
 He went galumphing back.

"And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
  Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'  
He chortled in his joy.

`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
  Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,  
And the mome raths outgrabe.

15 posted on 08/28/2015 9:10:13 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA (Do Not Vote for List: See my profile)
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To: GoldenPup

That would be the best thing that could happen, but than wouldn’t Nancy Piglosi be in line? I know she’s not speaker of the House, but used to be


16 posted on 08/28/2015 9:12:15 AM PDT by Kaslin (He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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To: Kaslin

Pray ... have FAITH in answered Prayer

LET YOUR VOICE BE HEARD!

VOTE for the candidate that comes nearest to the principles we hold dear and PRAY without ceasing, in all we do.

Be ready, take part in the process, as do we all.

AMERICA needs prayer and repentance.


17 posted on 08/28/2015 9:13:50 AM PDT by geologist
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To: Kaslin

It is interesting that the people currently leading in both primaries aren’t really members of the party they’re trying to represent next November. Clearly the mushy middle is tired of both sides.


18 posted on 08/28/2015 9:13:52 AM PDT by discostu (It always comes down to cortexiphan)
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To: Kaslin

“White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said he “wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an endorsement” in the primary and added that “no one in American politics today” knows more about running for president than Biden and that Obama considered his Biden VP pick as “the smartest decision that he has ever made in politics.” Hmm.”

Yes, it was a smart decision to have an incompetent moron as VP because it was protection against impeachment!


19 posted on 08/28/2015 9:14:09 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: Yo-Yo

I’m hoping that Biden jumps in, Hillary gets charged, and she goes nuclear on Obama by leaking a bunch of emails he sent her.

I want the Democrat party destroyed.


20 posted on 08/28/2015 9:19:37 AM PDT by struggle
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