Posted on 09/14/2015 8:43:02 PM PDT by VinL
Uh... Iguess it’s possible...just hellaciously unlikely. ;)
“Cruz can win Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Virginia.”
Nope.
Colorado is making how much off of legalized weed now and they’re not going to elect a law and order conservative Christian. New mexico is solid blue. Iowa maybe movable but Northern Virginia will turn that state blue. Hell North Carolina will probably be in play.
Cruz can’t break double digits his own partys primary.
It’s not going to be Cruz.
Perhaps I didn’t make my point clear enough.
Take an extreme case of two candidates.
Candidate 1: 100% know well. 40 % like; 60% dislike.
Candidate 2: 10% know; 80% like; 20% dislike.
A current poll matchup between the two would something like 40%/8% for Candidate 1. He’s winning!
But Candidate 1 has very little, if any room to improve. But if Candidate 2 increases his known percentage to 100% at the same rate, he crushes Candidate 1.
So that’s my point, again: Trump has very little chance to improve to a winning share; others like Cruz do.
Trump has been in the 30-40% range nationally even since the last election. He’s not going much higher.
I’ll take your word as snark since it is apart of your name.
“So that’s my point, again: Trump has very little chance to improve to a winning share; others like Cruz do.”
Cruz isn’t going to improve enough.
If you’re for Cruz you’re already for him, if you’re not you’re not going to choose him as a second choice. There’s a poll floating around about that very thing somewhere.
It may be somebody else but probably if Trump implodes in the primary then it’ll be Jeb or Kasich.
The rest will end up taking turns being in the lead just like 2012 and in the end fall to the pre-chosen candidate.
You can doubt away. Cruz is the consistent Constitutional Conservative. If Reagan dems reject that then f’em let them reap what they sowed by being dems & too ignorant to see the best candidate since Reagan
I don't see how that's a sure statement.
If you’re for Cruz you’re already for him,
That's more true for Trump than Cruz. Based on knowns again. Everybody knows Trump; if you're for him, you're already for him. Cruz can still pick up folks who don't know him very well. So there can be additional folks who will be for Cruz, but not yet. Trump doesn't have that growth possibility
Remember, we still have some debates left too.
It may be somebody else but probably if Trump implodes in the primary then it’ll be Jeb or Kasich.
That's possible, but I see it more like 2012. The majority don't want Trump (Romney). The question is can the majority coalesce behind an alternative or remain fractured.
“The question is can the majority coalesce behind an alternative or remain fractured.”
It could happen I guess. It hasn’t since 2000 but I suppose anything is possible.
I don’t know who will be the last one standing, but pretty confident that it’s not going to be Cruz.
” If Reagan dems reject that then f’em let them reap what they sowed by being dems & too ignorant to see the best candidate since Reagan”
That’s exactly what they’ll do and they won’t see that as a negative.
I think there’s a better chance of it happening this time than in 2013. Trump’s negatives are even higher than Romney’s. The majority could coalesce around Cruz. I think the Donald doesn’t wear well and has a penchant for gaffs, and the debates could be particularly hard on him.
Lot’s of time left, it’s very early.
You’re also likely to see the 1996 scenario or some variant. You may remember Pat Buckanan did well in early primary, but as the field narrowed considerably, the supporters of those leaving did not go to Pat, and he quickly folded.
Those not for Trump now score high on the “won’t ever vote for Trump” scale. It’s a huge field now and will shrink quickly. So, Trump’s not likely to pick up many of the supporters of those who drop out.
Again, IMHO, Trump has peaked.
Most of those “other issues” are Congress’ domain anyway. Those traitors had low approval ratings since Obama took office. People worked hard to get these jerks elected and a majority. What have they done with that? Now their excuse is “oh, Obama is President so we aren’t going to vote on anything major until 2017 and only if a Republican is elected president.” These people fail so hard at direction, it would surprise me if they could pass a driver’s license road test.
We need someone to enforce the laws. That’s what the executive branch is supposed to do. Banana Republic is a clothing line, not America.
I’m scared to post my real theories on what’s happening largely because I want it to happen for America, and it’s still early.
One thing I’m confident in posting: many of the people “running” don’t want the job.
Met him on Saturday and watched him speak to 1500 women. He was very good.
* * *
I saw your mention of this on a couple of other threads as well. Can you pleeeeeeeeze do us up a little vanity and give us details? (And maybe post those pics you mentioned?) Thanks!!
If Trump becomes the next POTUS, and then, Trump becomes a leftist president, then what? What’s to stop President Trump from practicing leftist politics, if he wants to do so? I remain very cautious about a President Trump, when his record is a leftist record. There needs to be, both, term limits and recall for all politicians and for all judges, at each and every level!
This is the latest GOPe line? It's BS just like how he couldn't get 10%, 20%, etc.
You're severely underestimating how pissed off people are.
I really like the way you think.
You assume anyone will get those voters, that they won’t just stay home if no choice enthuses them.
Trump is able to fill 20K capacity stadiums. Cruz enthuses his base at FR, but not much beyond us.
That’s good news.
Just last night I read the part of Cruz's biography where he describes Karl Rove telling him that he is an idiot to run for the Senate and doesn't have a snowball's chance of winning.
Karl Rove is a moron. He got extremely lucky that people were so angry with Clinton which encouraged votes for W. That was a narrow win.
Now he can’t find a winning candidate for kindergarten class president.
The path to winning is to stop listening to these establishment consultants because they have no idea how to communicate with normal people.
I get GOP begathon emails all the time. A fifth grader pitching his new phone app could do better. There’s no follow through on promises.
I’m highly enjoying what Trump is doing to them.
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