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Hurricane Joaquin
Wunderground/Noaa ^ | 9/30/2015

Posted on 09/30/2015 4:52:38 AM PDT by dirtboy

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Models are starting to come into agreement about a possible east coast impact
1 posted on 09/30/2015 4:52:38 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

All I know is my flight is Friday night and it’s not hitting till Sunday :)


2 posted on 09/30/2015 4:56:05 AM PDT by dp0622
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To: All

Record warm water in the area, diminishing shear, improving outflow, pushing dry air away, nothing I can see to halt this storm from becoming a major hurricane.


3 posted on 09/30/2015 4:56:16 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Yesterday it looked like it would stay away from the coast.
Looks closer now


4 posted on 09/30/2015 4:56:17 AM PDT by nuconvert ( Khomeini promised change too // Hail, Chairman O)
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To: nuconvert

There is a big ol’ blocking high up in the maritimes. Those tend to steer hurricanes to the west.


5 posted on 09/30/2015 4:58:47 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: nuconvert
Models in pretty good agreement now except for Euro (not included below):

Euro - unlikely with a blocking high:


6 posted on 09/30/2015 5:03:17 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Strange that the models are hinting at landfall in the NC/VA area, but the forecast track is pointing at NYC.


7 posted on 09/30/2015 5:06:24 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Falcon 105)
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To: Fresh Wind

The NHC tends to average current model runs against past runs and gradually change the forecast track in response.


8 posted on 09/30/2015 5:07:52 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Fresh Wind

9 posted on 09/30/2015 5:08:21 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: All
Looks like it is undergoing significant intensification this morning:


10 posted on 09/30/2015 5:09:50 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
Record warm water in the area

No matter what the actual temperature, it is always "record warm." I have learned to view such pronouncements with skepticism.

11 posted on 09/30/2015 5:11:46 AM PDT by Blennos
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To: dirtboy

Why is the European Model always the best predictor? Why not the American Model? Do we now suck at everything???


12 posted on 09/30/2015 5:15:11 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: ilovesarah2012

The American model is for Sam Champion to shriek like a girl.


13 posted on 09/30/2015 5:21:34 AM PDT by relictele (Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The Ends)
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To: dirtboy

Soon the global warming cult will be calling for more sacrifices on the altar of climate change. Surely this hurricane is Mother Gaia’s wrath that we did not drive enough electric cars, had air conditioning and didn’t use enough solar and wind power.


14 posted on 09/30/2015 5:28:51 AM PDT by The Great RJ (“Socialists are happy until they run out of other people's money.” Margaret Thatcher)
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To: ilovesarah2012
Why is the European Model always the best predictor? Why not the American Model? Do we now suck at everything???

It's not. Just yesterday the Euro had the storm coming up the East Coast, very close in...then at the next update they moved the path 900 miles west and had it slamming into Bermuda...then they had it making landfall between Hatteras and Wilmington NC...then back to Bermuda.

15 posted on 09/30/2015 5:33:50 AM PDT by pgkdan (But as for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: dirtboy

Get someone to read the data to you. Its track is SW at 6 mph. It’s headed for Cuba or into the Gulf. In order to come up the coast it would have to nearly REVERSE from its current track.


16 posted on 09/30/2015 5:39:51 AM PDT by Tucker39 (Welcome to America! Now speak English; and keep to the right....In driving, in Faith, and politics.)
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To: Fresh Wind

Those models are wishful thinking by. The data right there in the chart says the track is SOUTHWEST at 6mph. That will take it across Cuba. To hit the US coast it would have to do a 120° right turn.


17 posted on 09/30/2015 5:44:02 AM PDT by Tucker39 (Welcome to America! Now speak English; and keep to the right....In driving, in Faith, and politics.)
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To: Fresh Wind
Strange that the models are hinting at landfall in the NC/VA area, but the forecast track is pointing at NYC.

Higher ratings if New Yorkers watch than if Tarheels watch...

18 posted on 09/30/2015 5:45:10 AM PDT by null and void (FLINT: Free enterprise, Limited government, Individual liberty, National defense, Traditional values)
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To: dirtboy

It still won’t be a major hurricane when it hits. Maybe a cat 1 at most.


19 posted on 09/30/2015 5:45:36 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (Pubbies = national collectivists; Dems = international collectivists; We need a second party!)
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To: relictele

ROFL


20 posted on 09/30/2015 5:48:48 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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