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Polls: Trump Still Leads in IA and NH, But Loses Ground
NBC/WSJ ^ | 10/4/15 | Carrie Dann

Posted on 10/04/2015 7:52:53 AM PDT by BigEdLB

Donald Trump remains ahead in the early Republican nominating contests of Iowa and New Hampshire, but his lead has shrunk from a month ago, according to brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these two states.

(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; carriedann; clinton; demagogicparty; election2016; fiorina; iowa; memebuilding; nbc; newhampshire; newyork; ntsa; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; sanders; trump; wallstreetjournal; wsj
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NH Detail:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/283603493/GOP-DEM-PRIMARY-NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015

IA Detail:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/283603490/GOP-DEM-CAUCUS-NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015
1 posted on 10/04/2015 7:52:53 AM PDT by BigEdLB
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To: BigEdLB

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Mar(x)ist


2 posted on 10/04/2015 7:55:13 AM PDT by albie
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To: BigEdLB

Was this poll conducted before or after Trump’s 60 Minutes interview and the release of his tax plan?


3 posted on 10/04/2015 7:55:54 AM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (Liberals are like the Taliban and ISIS....destroying cultural icons they don't like.)
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To: BigEdLB
How the media expects people to react:

"Trump is ahead? Well, this means nothing. It's very early. He will certainly fade as others come on strong."

"Trump is behind? Well, game over! He's done! He had his chance! He should get out!"

4 posted on 10/04/2015 7:57:19 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (I've switched. Trump is my #1. He understands how to get things done. Cruz can be VP.)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Really, not much has changed. Kasich took a massive plummet, Fiorina gained ground, but really didn't make much of a dent.

To me the serious news here is that it appears Carson is finished in NH. Fiorina apparently here still has the post-debate surge, which will fade soon. So Trump has a 10-point lead over the next person in line after her (Bush).

But in IA, Fiorina is already finished. Carson still hanging around (really, most of the people I hear speak of Carson just "like" him but don't really have anything in particular they like except he's "nice" and is anti-abortion).

So let the media go with what they want here. Point is, no one is anywhere CLOSE to beating Trump consistently in more than one state.

5 posted on 10/04/2015 8:03:20 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: BigEdLB

These polls were conducted between Sept. 23-30.

They are very old.

Two different tracking polls show Trump surging after the release of his tax plan on Sept 28.


6 posted on 10/04/2015 8:05:02 AM PDT by Helicondelta
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To: ClearCase_guy

MTP closed their show today with the headline THE FALL OF TRUMP

The polls that show Trump falling are fabricated!

Before someone comes along and say I only like polls that are good for Trump, I have been saying this about polls for years.

Mind you , fabricated polls become reality to the masses


7 posted on 10/04/2015 8:05:19 AM PDT by Chauncey Uppercrust (TRUMP/CRUZ 2016 OR BUST)
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To: BigEdLB
The poll was conducted between September 23 and 30. Over 8 days. 431 in Iowa. 54 per day. 450 in New Hampshire. 56 per day MOE about 4.6%. No iternals. Only second choice.

New Hampshire Trump 21 -7 Fiorina 16 +10 Carson 10 -1 Bush 11 +3 Kasich 6 -6 Rubio 10 +7.

Iowa Trump 24 -5, Carson 19 -3 Fiorina 8 +3 Cruz 6 +2 Rubio 6 +2 Bush 7 +1

Someone wants to move the needle to establishment candidates. I wonder if like the CNN poll, where Trump went up then down they were trying to create a story where the previous poll was to high and this poll is low and the truth is somewhere in between.
8 posted on 10/04/2015 8:08:48 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Congress will have blood on their hands if anything happens because of the Iran appeasement)
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To: BigEdLB

NBC? What in the hell does one intelligent person expect. Real BS.


9 posted on 10/04/2015 8:09:55 AM PDT by Logical me
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To: july4thfreedomfoundation

60 minutes half and half. Tax plan, mostly before.


10 posted on 10/04/2015 8:13:06 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Congress will have blood on their hands if anything happens because of the Iran appeasement)
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To: BigEdLB; seekthetruth; bevperl; MinuteGal; freekitty; unkus; vette6387; Foolsgold; Nachum

Watch yesterday’s rally and see how the audience loved Trump. I’m not buying the polls showing Trump losing anything.


11 posted on 10/04/2015 8:15:28 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: ExTexasRedhead

Somebody is terrified of the idea of President Trump. For the first time in years I actually bought a People Magazine. Trump family are genuinely nice people and normal. Wife Melania talks about how Donald and son Barron like to go out for cheeseburgers. Guess that is tough these days, Probably needs them delivered.


12 posted on 10/04/2015 8:21:06 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Congress will have blood on their hands if anything happens because of the Iran appeasement)
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To: BigEdLB

Compare this election cycle to previous ones—more people are tuned in earlier and with social media and political climate being much more intense the candidates are being fleshed out earlier and more thoroughly. The dynamics on the Dem side could change if Biden gets in but less likely on the Repub side and that’s why Trump has been far ahead for many weeks now and should continue going forward.


13 posted on 10/04/2015 8:24:21 AM PDT by tflabo (Psalm 1)
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To: BigEdLB
Read this Poll showing Trump at 32 % up with a TWO % Jump from prior week using a larger sample !

Is the the truth that Trump is moving UP ? Does any believe a push poll with a tiny sample from two DC front groups run by Conservative haters and Trump haters

Trump is suing NBC !
Murdoch has declared WAR with Trump and he has destroyed the WSJ and made it a Cheap Labor Crony Capitalist rag All these Poll are Pure crap now thanks to the Iphone which destroyed the land line phone used by Polling firms !

14 posted on 10/04/2015 8:28:06 AM PDT by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: BigEdLB; vette6387; mazda77; unkus; ZULU; overbore; MinuteGal; seekthetruth; MamaDearest

I talk politics everywhere I go and almost everyone I talk to is voting for Trump. They’re pissed and sick of politicians as usual!! Those voting for Trump are from both parties.


15 posted on 10/04/2015 8:31:36 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: BigEdLB
They sampled 200 plus Republican in this poll .
Such a tiny sample of 200 is consider useless in a country of 365,000,000 !

This Poll with more people but still small has Trump up by 2 points and now at 32 % !

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7011

What kind of crappy push polling is the National Barack Channel and the Murdoch Cheap labor newsletter trying to fool people with ! These poll tell two very different stories ! I believe nothing from NBC,WSJ ,Fox or any Murdoch propaganda outlet ! I don't trust AP or Reuters either .

16 posted on 10/04/2015 8:35:10 AM PDT by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: BigEdLB

Fox News, especially Bloody Megyn barely mentioned the Pew Poll that showed Trump up big on everyone. She’ll start her broadcast tomorrow with this latest WSJ/Marist Poll, saying Trump is losing steam and Fiorina is ‘SURGING”. She’ll blab on about it through the second commercial break with Krauthammer, Will and Rove saying Trump is finished.


17 posted on 10/04/2015 8:46:38 AM PDT by NKP_Vet (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle,stand like a rock ~ T, Jefferson)
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To: BigEdLB

Only 13 more months ‘til election day !!!!!


18 posted on 10/04/2015 9:02:56 AM PDT by Iron Munro (Proverbs 21:20 - The wise have stores of food and oil but a foolish man devours all he has))
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To: BigEdLB

I’m with most of you guys - it’s a bit premature to be writing Trump’s political obituary. Carson will fade, probably soon, and all of his support will go to Trump. Trump is probably getting no better than a proportional share of Figurina’s vote, and Rubio appears to have gotten most of Bush’s and Walker’s support. The problem for Rubio is that there isn’t much more support for him to get.

As the candidates fade, barring a big mistake by Trump, he’ll wind up at 50%, with Rubio topping off at 20%, and no one in between.


19 posted on 10/04/2015 9:03:18 AM PDT by BobL (REPUBLICANS - Fight for the WHITE VOTE...and you will win (see my 'profile' page))
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To: BigEdLB

I want to know how you can decide on a person that has absolutely NO voting record. Just sound bytes.

I want facts and stats to base my decision on. When I read articles like Shillary’s supporters LOVE Trumps tax plan that gives me a big red flag. I don’t like to vote on just sound bytes. I did my duty and voted the lesser of 2 evils both the last 2 elections. I don’t want to have to do it again. Lets get it right this time or we won’t have an America we can recognize, we will be a third world country who borrows money from china to support those who won’t over throw their own damn rotten governments. They come here and demand we follow their ways. If you continue to elect the lesser of 2 evils that is what you get just a lesser slower evil.

Much of what He says makes commonsense, that tax one doesn’t fly. But then some of what Sanders says make since too. If you take it as a sound byte, not knowing his voting record.

Give me stats I can read not sound bytes.


20 posted on 10/04/2015 9:04:14 AM PDT by GailA (Those who break Promises to Our Troops, you won't keep them to anyone. Ret. SCPO's wife)
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