Posted on 10/14/2015 7:43:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republican voters think the economy is the number one issue but cant manage a public discussion on economic policy, as I observed Oct. 4 (Who are you, and what have you done with the Republican Party?“). They flail at hot-button issues, defunding Planned Parenthood, for example, and look for scapegoats such as illegal Mexican immigrants (whose numbers are actually falling). It seems pointless to make predictions of any sort in the midst of the moral equivalent of a riot, but nonetheless I will go out on a limb: the Republicans will nominate Sen. Ted Cruz as president and Sen. Marco Rubio as vice-president, by process of elimination.
This conclusion seems inevitable by process of elimination. The voters are in a surly, rebellious mood and display their anger by telling pollsters they will vote for anti-Establishment candidates who never have held office (Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Paul).
CBS Poll Released October 11
Oct. 9 | September | |
Donald Trump | 27% | 27% |
Ben Carson | 21% | 23% |
Ted Cruz | 9% | 5% |
Marco Rubio | 8% | 6% |
Jeb Bush | 6% | 6% |
Carly Fiorina | 6% | 4% |
Rand Paul | 4% | 3% |
Chris Christie | 3% | 1% |
Mike Huckabee | 2% | 6% |
The four anti-Establishment candidates together command 58% of Republican preferences, according to the CBS poll. But it is unlikely that the party ultimately will nominate any of them. They simply are too volatile, too inexperienced and too labile to carry a presidential campaign. If that assumption is correct (and it is a big assumption), then that 58% will have to go somewhere else.
We can array the Republican candidates in a Venn diagram, with two regions denoting experience (holders of high political office) vs. the rebels. There is one name and one name only in the intersection of the two Venn diagrams, namely Cruz: he is perceived as anti-Establishment, but he has held high office at the state and national level.
Cruz is the likeliest person to inherit the 58% anti-Establishment vote once the Trump-Carson-Fiorina euphoria fades. Its noteworthy that Cruz polls strongest among elected officials in the Republican race, at 9% this morning vs. 5% in September. Most of his gain appears to have come at the expense of former Gov. Mike Huckabee, which suggests that conservative evangelicals are consolidating their efforts around Sen. Cruz. The Republicans need a candidate with anti-Establishment credentials. A Jeb Bush ticket would risk defections to third-party challengers.
Cruz, moreover, has the strongest organization on the ground among all the Republican candidates. CBS news reported last week that he raised $12.2 million in the third quarter, more than twice the $6 million raised by Sen. Marco Rubio. Ben Carson, to be sure, raised about $20 million, but Carson simply will not be the candidate. The average Cruz donation was just $66, and the Texas senator has a strong grassroots organization, perhaps the strongest of any of the Republican candidates.
Jeb Bush is weighed down by his family name, by his own diffident personality, and by his failure to persuade the big donors who supported his father and brother that he can win. He doesnt suit the national mood. Sen. Rubio is a charming young man whose main disadvantage is to carry the baggage of the Bush administrations failed foreign policy, tying his tongue in knots while apologizing for the Iraq War. The rest of the Republican field is hardly worth a comment. Rubio would make a terrific VP candidate. Its a natural: with two Hispanics on the ticket, the Republicans have a better chance of capturing Latino votes.
Ted Cruz, in summary, is best positioned to capture the Republican protest vote, and best positioned on the ground in primary states. He is also without doubt the most intelligent, literate and cultured person running for president, a former national debating champion, and a star student of the conservative philospher Robert George at Princeton as well as the liberal law professor Alan Dershowitz at Harvard. If I read him correctly, he has paced himself, allowing Donald Trump to grab the headlines, tipping his hat to this wild man of the Republican primaries by way of acknowledging the sympathy he has won from voters. Meanwhile has has spent most of his time building an organization on the ground, in preparation for the moment when the anti-Establishment vote fades. He carries none of the toxic baggage of the Republican foreign-policy establishment; on the contrary, he drew their ire for ridiculing the idea that the U.S, could turn Iraq into Switzerland.
Theres a case against Cruz, to be sure. Ronald Reagan is his political model, and he has watched so many Reagan speeches that he can do a persuasive Reagan impression. But in many ways he is still the tall, geeky bookworm who aced every exam and became every teachers pet and went through hell in junior high school. Ronald Reagan had a spontaneous wit and presence of mind. In February 1980, in a dispute with the moderator of a candidates debate, he stood up like a Hollywood sheriff at a Republican debate and declared, I am paying for this microphone! The voters saw the real Reagan all the time, and loved him. Cruz is studied, not spontaneous, and humor is not his strong suit. In some ways he evokes Richard Nixon more than Reagan.
Those are disadvantages, to be sure, but I do not think they will outweigh Sen. Cruz advantages. He is in the right part of the Republican Party at the right time. His debating skills and mastery of public policy will show well in a prolonged campaign, especially against a slapdash thinker like Vice President Biden. There simply isnt anyone else whom the Republicans can run with the same skill set, organizational capacity and ability to unite the party.
RE: but now that Cruz has said he didnt think Trump could ever be elected I think Trump will not be so gracious to Cruz.
OK, what’s Cruz supposed to say? That he thinks Trump will be elected?
Then why the heck is Cruz still in the race if he would think that?
And Trump is supposed to think that Cruz should think otherwise?
If Cruz chose Rubio as his running mate, hed lose a whole lot of voters...
Too many to win in Nov 2016
Rubio is not running again for reelection as a senator because he knows that he ill lose in the primary. The Rubio-Schumer amnesty spelled the end of Rubio in FL.
This country is finished if Rubio is the nominee. The choice between Hillary and Rubio is the same as if it were between Hillary and Bush. The GOP will be finished if we get another GOPe nominee.
Labeling Rubio as an anti-establishment candidate makes believe it is indeed satire.
That said, and since VP candidates are usually picked to help win the election, he might think Carly could help better than having a second Cuban-American on the ticket. Or maybe Jindal or some other governor.
I could vote for that.
I could vote for almost any Republican combo.
I won’t actively campaign for a ticket with Christie, Kasich, or Pataki.
So I guess you didn’t like Reagan because he picked George Bush the elder as his V. P. too... Because that’s the same logic you’re using.
Would not vote for.
It won’t be Rubio as VP. I’m thinking Cruz/Carson.
Ahh ? HELL NO !
This is the equivalent of saying there would be a Bachmann - Huckleberry ticket, in 2012.
What’s in Spengler’s hookah pipe?
Both are not eligible candidates.
This is what is most likely to happen...
TED CRUZ / SARAH PALIN 2016 !!!
The same guy who told us Obama could not possibly get elected.
TED CRUZ / SARAH PALIN 2016 !!!
TED CRUZ / SARAH PALIN 2016 !!!
TED CRUZ / SARAH PALIN 2016 !!!
TED CRUZ / SARAH PALIN 2016 !!!
Odd, Spengler is usually on the mark. I don’t see this.
LMAO....;>)
Though it might come a surprise there are many of WTP who would never vote for the Rube....certainly not as VP Have no problem with the Cruz vote but Rubio...not now, not then, not ever. The guy lied to US...HE LIED and HE WOULD LIE AGAIN when the need arose. It is a pity. When he first surfaced on local radar, hope was high that he would be ‘the one/won’ but soon after the gang of 8 had a new member and those hopes were shown to be false hopes. NO RUBIO!!
Let’s look at the polls, no not the top guy. Let’s look at the also-rans to pick the nominee because we’re not going to allow the people to choose Trump.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.