Posted on 11/18/2015 2:45:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
So … what’s the Jeb Bush path to the nomination again? Donald Trump was supposed to fade, then Ben Carson, leaving Bush as the most electable man in the field — especially in the critical state of Florida, where Bush served two terms as a highly popular governor. Instead, it looks like Bush is doing the fading in the Sunshine State, as Adam Smith reports for the Tampa Bay Times:
A newly released poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative shows Donald Trump with a two-to-one advantage over everybody else and former Gov. Jeb Bush in fifth place, behind Ted Cruz.
“Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing,†said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative.
The report from FAU (available on their site in PDF form) notes just how little traction Bush has left in his home state:
It appears the GOP primary fight has left all the candidates popularity upside down. Trump holds a 41 percent favorable and 51percent unfavorable impression among all voters but that is reversed among likely GOP voters with a 63 percent to 32 percent favorable opinion. Similarly, Rubio’s name recognition is also underwater at 42 percent to 47 percent but improves to 67 percent to 23 percent among GOP primary voters. Carson has seen his numbers drop from a 53 percent favorable rating in September to 41 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable in November but among GOP primary voters he improves to 63 percent to 26 percent.
The poll appears to be bad news for Bush with 34 percent of respondents having a favorable opinion and 51 percent have an unfavorable. Among likely GOP primary voters his numbers improve to 46 percent favorable and 41percent unfavorable. Among Hispanic GOP Primary voters Rubio leads both Trump and Carson 34 percent to 19 percent each. Bush receives 13 percent of the Hispanic vote.
The breakout of support by ethnic demographic is actually pretty good for Donald Trump. Among white voters, he leads 39/16.3 over Rubio. Trump comes in second among African-American voters to Rand Paul, 31.6/21.1, with Ben Carson tied with Jeb Bush for third at 15.8% — and Rubio getting no support, as in zero. Rubio leads among Hispanic voters with 34%, but Trump and Carson tie for second at 19.1%, and Bush trailing at 12.8%. That certainly puts an interesting spin on the conventional wisdom that Trump is alienating Hispanics.
Back to the overall trends in Florida. Here’s a graph that shows the impact of the last two months on the campaign trail:
Trump has actually picked up a little more momentum rather than showing any signs of fading. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson have also moved up, and in Carson’s case past Bush. Rubio is essentially unchanged since September, but still good enough to stay firmly in second place. The former governor of the state has dropped back a little over two points in the same period — within the MOE, but not in a direction that would boost confidence in his future in the race.
This poll matches up well with the trends seen in the RealClearPolitics averages for Florida over the last month:
The only candidate doing a slow fade over this point in time is Bush, who has fallen almost four full points in his home state in the RCP average since October 19th, a period that spans two prime-time debates. He’s running fifth, so even if Trump and Carson stumble, Bush would have to push past Rubio and Cruz to take Florida’s delegates in its winner-take-all primary. How likely are Trump and Carson’s voters to choose Jeb as their fallback position? Not likely, not even in Florida.
Bobby Jindal withdrew yesterday, saying it was not yet his time. The data so far in this primary is that Jeb Bush may be past his time, even with the huge donor backstop. Voters simply aren’t buying Bush stock, and if he can’t be competitive in Florida, he isn’t going to do better in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.
READ ‘EM AND WEEP!
If Trump could just tie up Iowa, the nomination is his. Go, Go, Trump!!!
Yes, it’s still early, but it’s shocking that Jeb doesn’t lead in Florida, and shocking that Rubio isn’t a close second.
Go, Trump, GO!!
Any new polls from Iowa?
Go Trump!!!
The fact that the donors backed Jeb and STILL haven’t backed out tells you just how out-of-touch this party’s leadership is. Not only do they not understand what their party’s want and believe, they’re even too stupid to come up with a plan to fool us.
Is this one of those polls we’re supposed to believe, or not?
It suggests to me that they have something up their sleeve to steal the nomination and have to keep their boy in the lineup, even if he is on life support.
I agree with you. I would like to add onto your point that it also shows who owns these politicans.
Leni
Thanks for the heads-up.
“Something is wrong in Colorado? or is it Quinnipiac “
I think those poll results for Colorado amount to wild ass guesses, as I suspect accurate telephone polling in Colorado is dead. No one seems to have a land line here anymore and the few that do (like me) screen their calls like mad. I’m being inundated with polling calls, probably because I’m one of the few left with a land line, but when I get any unwanted call, I just hang up and then block the number from getting through again.
This all means that polling samples here are anything but random.
“The fact that the donors backed Jeb and STILL haven’t backed out tells you just how out-of-touch this party’s leadership is.”
I think it may mean that the big money donors are desperate and gullible. I suspect the Bush BS line to donors goes something like this: As bad as my poll numbers are right now, I’m the only candidate for sale who has any chance at all in beating Trump, whom everybody in this room knows can’t be bought. And the reason I have the best chance is the proven record of my family in electing two of us to President, and we also still have our whole network of donors and insiders fully intact. All the other candidates are pretenders and/or Johnny-come-latelies.
Yeb! just can’t get no respect.
Maybe he should challenge Hillary! for the Democrat nomination.
Sorry.
Leni
Leni
After the events in Paris on 11/13, I will be adding
this to my posts for the next week. I'm certain our
turn is coming again soon. We stand united against
Islamic extremists.
Some music for reflection if the mood strikes you.
Courtesy of: Kartographer
beautiful [02:23]
An honorable mention also goes out to Lassana Bathily , a Muslim immigrant from Mali.
Mr. Bathily sheltered customers at the Jewish Deli and helped police by providing info
on the terrorists, and providing the location of survivors in the deli.
Courtesy of: Tijeras_Slim
Now it shows Trump on C-Span 2...”starting shortly”...C-Span’s sites were all screwed up. Sorry.
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