Posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:02 AM PST by Isara
In the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson, who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%. The next tier of candidates has a lot of catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each with 3%.
During the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks, as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism for his lack of foreign policy expertise.
Carson and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including 2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at key voting blocs.
Ben Carson is still the preferred candidate of 25% of white evangelicals, but Donald Trump (23%) and Ted Cruz (22%) have clearly eaten away at what used to be the main pillar of Carson support. Among those who identify as very conservative, Ted Cruz now has the highest level of support, with 40%, overtaking both Carson (15%) and Trump (28%).
Carson has also seen his backing erode among both men and women, and their vote preferences are now being diverted to other candidates.
Among those with college degrees or more, the Republican race is utterly divided, with Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio getting nearly equal levels of support. Trump has regained his lead among leaned Republican voters with high school degrees or less. And Ted Cruz has made gains among all these groups in the last month.
Stephanie Psyllos, Hannah Hartig, and Josh Clinton contributed reporting.
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted from November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over and including a sample of 2,440 Republican voters and independent voters who lean Republican. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Overall results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points and the error estimate for the leaned Republican voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.
The poll was produced by the Data Analytics Lab of NBC News in conjunction with Penn's Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies with data collection and tabulation conducted by SurveyMonkey.
The entire corrupt Uniparty Establishment along with the Billionaire donor class hates Trump. Trump is the only real threat to their power. All the rest are owned by the Uniparty, which is why everyday the Uniparty attacks Donald Trump.
I’m not disagreeing with your concern. My outlook is shaped by the reality of my dealings trying to expose Harry Reid. The opposition (both em and RINO) play dirty and I am not sure Ted wouldn’t be crushed if not backed up.
Yes, I've seen that.
My point was only that it's easy to make a chart showing Cruz as the "most conservative" candidate as long as one conveniently disregards those positions which aren't conservative.
As Carson fades, IF he is fading, Cruz is the natural place for his former supporters to go.
Cruz combines the best of both Trump and Carson.
I really like Ted Cruz but his supporters just can’t accept the fact that he has an almost impossible path to the nomination because he is just too conservative for the average republican voter. I’m conservative but I understand that most republicans are middle of the road or slightly right of center. That’s part of Trump’s appeal. He’s not the most conservative candidate but he’s conservative enough. He also has a better chance to win the general election.
Mr. Levin,
I know you probably don’t get much of a chance to lurk on the boards much anymore, but l feel you need to be notified about the following attacks directed at you and CR since you have been heavily promoting the candidate profiles on your radio show.
Isara has been diligently posting this chart to get the truth out about where each of the candidates stands on the various issues. Almost like clockwork however, supporters of a particular candidate (almost universally Trump) bash him and call the chart “BS” because the truth fails to match up with what they want to be true.
This goes on everytime he posts the chart. They’re too much of a coward to direct criticism of the chart’s information directly to you, so they take it out on him, but I decided to “help” them out and ping you to make you aware.
At this point the clear front runners are Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Rubio. Fiaroni was in the top group for a few weeks, but she has dropped off steadily. A big recent trend is carson dropping off 3-4 percentage points. Trump is maintaining his lead at just under 30% and Cruz has clibed into 3rd place at 15.5%. HE has been jockying with Rubio for 3rd place, with Rubio now around 10%.
IMHO, they should limit the future debate to the top five contenders and allow the others remaining in the race to have t it in the pre-debat, 2nd tier debate each time.
Here's my numbers from the latest polls:
...and here's my running chart since Septembetr 1st.
The chart is definitely lying about Trumps stand on 2nd amendment.
Definitely.
Positively.
Absolutely lying.
I don’t think Trump has a better chance to win the election though. The problem is same as Romney and McCain... Conservatives and Christians evangelicals will sit home.
The way to winning the election is nominate a true conservative because Republicans won’t vote for Hillary and the moderates will have to choose between left and right. In the past it was always the conservative that had to compromise and then Republicans lose.
I think you are wrong and here is why: Trump appeals to at least 25% of the Obama 2008 and 2012 voters.
The Brotha ain’t running. Hillary is not going to get the level of support the LIV gave the Magic Negro.
Trump, if he is the nominee, will win next November.
"In the past Trump has paid lip service to the Second Amendment. More troubling is that he supported the so-called assault weapons ban and a longer waiting period for gun purchases. However, during the 2015 campaign, Trump has made a major shift on Second Amendment issues. He released a policy paper on the Second Amendment which promises major reforms that gun rights activists have long wanted. Examples include support for national reciprocity for concealed carry permits, the end of weapons and magazine bans, and curtailing of the expansion of a failing background check system. Time will tell if the 180 about face is principled driven or merely political in nature."
- See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates/candidates/donald-trump#article-13
yes, he was at 28% in a couple, including, I THINK, this one.
I didn’t say he would win, but I think Cruz will win too and have a better chance to win.
Meant to say “I didn’t say he would NOT win”
I don’t buy that for one minute... Maybe in an individual state he got there, but nationally? Someones playing with the sampling or something. I don’t doubt polls published the number, I just doubt the veracity of the data they used to get it.
You don’t buy what, that Carson shot up inexplicably in about 3-4 polls, then immediately descended? It’s exactly like what happened with Fiorina, except with a few more poll points. I see Carson under 10 in latest NH poll.
Cruz was subject to a near complete media blackout, while Trump has been steadily kept afloat by the media.
There is no assassination possible with Cruz, which is part of the reason for the blackout instead of attack.
Cruz has wisely revealed every element of his life in print, thus inoculating himself from any significant attack.
The media will soon run out of mediocre candidates to puff, and at that point the noise level will recede and Cruz’ true numbers will be discernible; presently they are not, and guesswork is worthless.
.
Ah, so Cruz can’t get above 10% cause he can’t get media coverage. Ok.
Yes, I don’t buy. I do believe Fiorina got a slight bump after the 1 debate, and subsequent talking head propping of her up...Carson had nothing, no event, no good performance, no talking heads trying to promote him, no nothing then suddenly he’s doubled his support, nope... Someone was playing with the numbers.
I don’t doubt polls published with a bump, just I don’t believe for one minute there wasn’t some manipulation of the data going on to create it.
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