Posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:02 AM PST by Isara
In the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson, who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%. The next tier of candidates has a lot of catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each with 3%.
During the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks, as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism for his lack of foreign policy expertise.
Carson and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including 2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at key voting blocs.
Ben Carson is still the preferred candidate of 25% of white evangelicals, but Donald Trump (23%) and Ted Cruz (22%) have clearly eaten away at what used to be the main pillar of Carson support. Among those who identify as very conservative, Ted Cruz now has the highest level of support, with 40%, overtaking both Carson (15%) and Trump (28%).
Carson has also seen his backing erode among both men and women, and their vote preferences are now being diverted to other candidates.
Among those with college degrees or more, the Republican race is utterly divided, with Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio getting nearly equal levels of support. Trump has regained his lead among leaned Republican voters with high school degrees or less. And Ted Cruz has made gains among all these groups in the last month.
Stephanie Psyllos, Hannah Hartig, and Josh Clinton contributed reporting.
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted from November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over and including a sample of 2,440 Republican voters and independent voters who lean Republican. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Overall results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points and the error estimate for the leaned Republican voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.
The poll was produced by the Data Analytics Lab of NBC News in conjunction with Penn's Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies with data collection and tabulation conducted by SurveyMonkey.
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Trumps stand on 2nd amendment has always been that most people shouldn’t be allowed to have weapons.
He has temporarily modified that position in order to pretend that he is a Republican.
Donald is a progressive.
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Ok. I see. Something was up. I thought it was due to GOPe funding and support.
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Have to admit, you are the master of illogic!
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No one car argue that Trump is the 500 lb media gorilla in the room, but you have to play the hand you are dealt, if Cruz, or anyone else isn’t getting traction because Trump is in the race, that’s not Trump or the media’s fault.
As much as I like Cruz, and was glad to seem him about face on the incompatible stand he had on the H1B visa program up until last week or so, there is no getting around he’s a divisive figure. He has a very real general election electability problem. I don’t see a calculus where he is the nominee, and I certainly don’t see a calculus where he is the nominee and he wins as much as I might personally like that outcome.
Cruz could be a fallback if Trump fails, or if trump pulls out and throws his support to him, but I think the most likely route for Cruz is either back to the Senate or VP on the ticket with Trump. Though I suspect the GOPe is likely to force Rubio onto the ticket with Trump (or someone like him) like they did Bush I to Reagan... in a backdoor deal to prevent them from simply burning the whole damned nation the ground in order to get Hillary in so as to not lose their power.
We shall see...
Sorry, you already took that title, as well as a few others.
Well Fiorina was clearly GOPe talking heads talking her up post that first debate, they had their script ready before the debate was over that they were going to prop her up... didn’t work, but they did do that.
Carson, I’m more hard pressed to buy that, as the press really hasn’t propped him up at all.. just suddenly there is a surge in the polls for no apparent reason. Not sure who or why, it could have been the GOPe, but I don’t know.. all I do know is I have a very very hard time buying that Carson suddenly was polling so high when there was no real event to motivate it.
Maybe some Bradley effect or something, I don’t know.
Yes, I’m with you. I kept thinking the Carson voters would just fold and move in with Trump. A lot of religious voters there that, I think, are “too pious” for Trump.
I suspect Trump will be the biggest gainer from Carson’s collapse... they were the 2 real outsiders, so stands to reason they will more likely go to the other outsider than another establishment candidate.
It comes down to a simple question that Cruz's supporters can't answer: Name a single state Romney lost that Cruz can win.
Yes, in which he openly says he did so they would kiss his butt and get favors for.
I think one of biggest myths in this cycle is that the evangelicals don’t like Trump. He has garnered a lot of support especially with the black evangelicals. He had 20 plus black pastors surrounding him at the press conference prior to the Norcross, GA rally and he had about 40 evangelical/Christian pastors and leaders show up at his office in Trump Tower recently to perform a laying on of hands.
In the general election Trump is going to pull from a very broad base including Blacks and Democrats as well and independents. I believe he will beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide.
Ooooh!! squealing on us to Mark Levin. Teacher they don’t like your chart. Waaa Waaaa! LOL!
A little over two months til the primaries start and Cruz is not leading in any state. Neither is anybody else except Trump. How do you overcome that? You don’t.
Trumps stand on 2nd amendment has always been that most people shouldn’t be allowed to have weapons.
He has temporarily modified that position in order to pretend that he is a Republican.
Donald is a progressive.
He just said not enough people with permits are carrying.
Liar.
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Trump is hiding his beliefs presently. The media are going along, because they desire for him to destroy conservatism.
His previously stated beliefs are what we have to go by, not the lies that he says to gain popularity.
You are equal parts tireless and tiresome.
I have not forgotten that you never answered my question about whether you will continue posting in FR after Trump wins the presidency.
Here is Trump at the 1988 Republican convention:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Usb0iE5WiZI
Yes, he supported Bush... I did too. But he praised Quayle... highly praised him.
This doesn’t prove much, except that you anti-Trump Jihadists cherry pick from Trump’s past.
I would be very happy with a President Cruz. However, I disagree with the likelihood of him winning vice Trump. My opinion is Trump has the best chance, due to independents and blue collar white males.
The entire corrupt Uniparty Establishment along with the Billionaire donor class hates Trump. Trump is the only real threat to their power. All the rest are owned by the Uniparty, which is why everyday the Uniparty attacks Donald Trump.
Yes he said with the approval of Martha McCowan (SP) that Graham was probably the most serious contender with the recent situations, has made it his number 1 priority...
a very serious man that has little to no support, they both shook their heads in disbelief that he has not made any hay.
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