Posted on 01/21/2016 10:32:58 AM PST by RoosterRedux
Today, a dollar bet on a Donald Trump primary victory will turn a profit of $1.52 on Betfair. His odds are ranked the best of any GOP candidate on the site.
Trump's share price to win the entire election reached its all-time high Wednesday on PredictIt, a site that allows users to trade futures on candidates' chances. Trump's price sits tied with Bernie Sanders for second place at 27 cents, and 16 cents behind leader Hillary Clinton.
At 48 cents per share at press time, Trump holds a 23-cent lead over Marco Rubio for the Republican nomination. Trump is now surging on the site, up 11 cents week over week and 5 cents on Wednesday alone.
But while Trump's poll numbers have charted sky-high since his summer campaign launch, the betting markets have been slow to invest. Earlier this summer, a dollar bet on Trump would earn a return of nearly $350 on Betfair, while first Jeb Bush then Marco Rubio led as the betting man's favorite.
*snip*
A 2008 University of Iowa study concluded that prediction markets are "74 percent closer to the actual outcome" than polling, and the results get even more accurate 100 days out from a vote.
"It's what you think is going to happen," said Travis. "Not what you want."
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailybeast.com ...
Ping
Went all in on Predictit in Sept. Max bet there is $850 and I’m down for over 4,600 shares, plus in big on the nomination, NH, etc.
These guys are going to go BROKE when Ted Cruz wins!
Ted Cruz 2016!!!
“If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.â€
-Mark Twain
Go TRUMP
Beat the he!! out of Hill’s Bill
Make AMERICA great
for All Great AMERICANS
It’s not the votes that count, it’s who counts the votes that matter.
My money is on the company that builds, operates and maintains the voting machines.
Totally right. Rick Santorum won Iowa. But Mitt Romney was proclaimed the victor for a few days after the election because one of the higher-ups who counted the votes was a big Mitt supporter and he helped make it seem that Mitt won, and drained any momentum Rick would have had.
True, but I expect Trump to be all over this. I bet he will have a well-oiled machine going after the fraudsters, like in Fairfax County, Va. It isn’t hard to run statistical analyses on past voting results to figure this out. Once they’re identified, challenge their system...keep ‘em off balance up until the election so they can’t consolidate their fraud machines.
Is this more accurate than polls? I’ve often suspected it is.
Uups ...
‘A 2008 University of Iowa study concluded that prediction markets are 74 percent closer to the actual outcome than polling ...’
Uups ...
‘A 2008 University of Iowa study concluded that prediction markets are 74 percent closer to the actual outcome than polling ...’
Having sent money to Newt, Cain, and Perry at the time, I remember being confounded by the betting odds.
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