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Sanders’s Ground Game Quietly Threatens Clinton’s Dominance in Rural Iowa
National Review ^ | February 1, 2016 | Brendan Bordelon

Posted on 02/01/2016 6:14:37 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

Iowa City, Iowa - They'd been singing and dancing to live performances from trendy alt-rock bands Vampire Weekend and Foster the People for over an hour. But to the thousands of college kids screaming as a white-haired 74-year-old finally took the stage, there was only one rock star at the University of Iowa Saturday night.

The throng that greeted Bernie Sanders here utterly dwarfed the one at Hillary Clinton's competing rally, held 30 minutes up the road in Cedar Rapids. While the former secretary of state attracted a few hundred people, a Sanders staffer tells National Review that the Iowa Field House was probably packed beyond its 4,800-person capacity for the Vermont senator. And the students hung on his every word, waving neon Bernie signs and shaking the walls as they cheered his call for "political revolution."

Tonight's Iowa caucuses won't be won by political rallies, though, no matter how large or wild they may be. The Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend shows Clinton with a persistent, if razor-slim, advantage in the state. And while Sanders can count on strong support in Iowa's college towns and population centers, conventional wisdom holds that his organization is spread too thin in the state's bucolic countryside to beat the Clinton machine.

But Democratic leaders in rural Iowa tell a different story. They claim that while Clinton's commanding ground game eclipsed her rival's for much of the campaign, over the past two months a surge in staffers, door-knockers, and phone-bankers has buoyed Sanders's efforts to turn out supporters and tightened the race in Iowa's sleepy small towns.

"It's neither fair nor accurate" to claim the Sanders campaign is ignoring rural Iowa, says Stephen Hanson, the Iowa County Democratic party chairman. "In the last 45 to 30 days, they have had people, they have had meetings, they have done a lot of things. Bernie's going to do real well in Iowa County."

The notion that Sanders is gaining ground in the countryside is also borne out in conversations with rural Democratic caucus-goers, most of whom see little difference in the two campaigns' on-the-ground presence. When added to the support of college students returning home to caucus with their parents - a strategy the Sanders campaign is now pushing heavily - Sanders's improved ground game could give him a real shot at undercutting Clinton in parts of rural Iowa. And if he can outperform expectations in the country while racking up big wins in the Hawkeye State's major population centers, he should come out on top tonight.

A strong showing in the countryside didn't always seem within Sanders's reach. The warning signs came with his first big Iowa surge: In mid January, a Des Moines Register poll showing a statewide tie between Clinton and Sanders also found that 27 percent of Sanders's support came from just three counties, those with the three largest universities in the state. Those same counties accounted for just 12 percent of Iowa's available delegates - a serious problem in a system where the statewide popular vote doesn't determine the outcome.

"If his support is that concentrated, the race isn't going to be nearly as close on Monday night," says Norm Sterzenbach, a veteran Democratic strategist in Des Moines. "She'll run up the numbers in rural Iowa, and he's going to be tapped out."

Confronted with that argument during a press conference last week, Sanders conceded, "We started our ground game and our organization in Iowa a lot later than Secretary Clinton did." But he also pointed to his string of small-town appearances over the last several weeks, as well as his plans to swing through the southeastern Iowa countryside in the final few days of the race. "In the last couple of months we have gained a whole lot of ground," he said. "And I think we stand a real chance to create a large voter turnout."

Hanson's Democratic counterparts in other rural counties agree. "They are strong," Mary Krier, party chairwoman in tiny Keokuk County, says of Sanders's campaign in her corner of southeastern Iowa. "They are organized and on the ground and door-knocking." A Clinton supporter, Krier says her candidate still maintains a slight organizational advantage in the county. "But it's not overwhelming," she says. "I think it's just a matter of [the Sanders campaign] getting more and more serious and organized as they went, and picking up more donors."

"I would say that Hillary's not ahead here," says Lorraine Williams, a Sanders support who chairs the Democratic party in eastern Iowa's rural Washington County. She admits that while Clinton's volunteers were there first, door-knockers and phone-bankers for Sanders have made up for it with a tremendous effort since December. "We're on an even playing scale," she says. "When I take a vote in my central-committee meetings, the majority are for Bernie Sanders."

Even in Adams County - at just 3,900 residents, Iowa's smallest - Sanders's campaign has made itself known. "Both Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton have strong, well-developed presences," says Martin Olive, the county's Democratic chairman. Despite his jurisdiction's lack of size, Olive claims professional relationships with staffers on both campaigns. "My sense is that Sanders may have fewer boots on the ground here," he says. "But it doesn't seem to be dramatic."

Rural Iowan voters don't feel neglected by Sanders. At rallies for both candidates in small eastern Iowa towns, most likely caucus-goers say they've received phone calls and personal visits from both campaigns over the past month. "[The Sanders people] came to my door before the Hillary people did!" says Joan Salt, a precinct captain for Clinton in Keokuk, with some chagrin. Daniel Clark, a native of Mount Pleasant, says pro-Clinton activity in his town is on the decline, "especially since Bernie has started." Chad Goings, a Sanders supporter from Washington, Iowa, says that a few months ago he was getting calls from the Clinton campaign, but he had received no visits from either side's volunteers. In the past two weeks, he's been visited twice by door-knockers volunteering for Sanders.

And though rural eastern Iowa is ostensibly Clinton country, support for Sanders there has seemed strong, which suggests that his improved ground game is having an effect. A crowd of several hundred packed a high-school gym in Mount Pleasant for a speech the senator gave on Friday, and dozens were turned away from a packed rally inside a Washington, Iowa, restaurant hours later. Many of the attendees were decidedly older than the supporters found in Sanders's big-city rallies - some well into their seventies. But most were no less enthusiastic. "I'm 74, same as Bernie," says Harold Dezumi of Mount Pleasant. "He should be such an inspiration to the older people in our community."

The rapid uptick in Sanders's rural presence is important, but it's hardly a foolproof bulwark against the Clinton campaign's meticulous organization in many small Iowa towns. To boost turnout where it matters most, the Sanders campaign is encouraging college students to take advantage of a rule that allows them to caucus with their parents. In 2008, Barack Obama used the same strategy to rack up higher delegate counts than he would have if his youthful base of support had been concentrated in university towns. But the 2008 Iowa caucuses were held in early January, when students were still on winter break and already at their parents' houses. Classes are in session on Monday, and the Sanders campaign will have to convince students to make a long drive home in the dead of winter.

Rania Batrice, Sanders's Iowa spokeswoman, admits the idea will be a tough sell, though it was first proposed by committed student activists. "We obviously want to help get them prepared to do that if they want to," she says, "from figuring out where their caucus location is to encouraging them to take their parents and grandparents and siblings."

The push to get students to caucus at home hasn't percolated through all Iowa campuses. Though virtually all the students at Saturday night's Iowa City rally were caucusing for Sanders, many didn't realize that the Sanders campaign hoped they'd caucus at home. And when made aware, several seemed less than interested. "I wouldn't go out of my way," says Jake Kersten, whose parents live in Davenport. "It just seems like the path of least resistance would be to stay here and vote here."

Others, however, said Sanders volunteers on campus or outside the rally had encouraged them to go home to caucus. And more than a few said they were planning on making the trek or knew others who were. "They need me more in Cedar Rapids than they do in Iowa City," says Asmaa Elkuerti, who hopes her professor lets her "dip out early" on Monday night to caucus for Sanders at her parents' house. Another student from the University of North Iowa says six of her friends are planning on heading back to caucus with their families in several parts of the state.

Most college students will probably still caucus on-campus, for social reasons as well as logistical ones. "There's a bandwagon, community-group effect," says Sterzenbach. "You want to go with your buddies." But in rural communities where only a few dozen voters make up a precinct, an additional two or three students can make all the difference. Convince enough students to make the trek home before Monday night, and the Sanders campaign could cause a decisive shift in rural delegate counts.

Despite the massive rallies and the overwhelming support of young voters, Sanders remains the underdog in Iowa. The Des Moines Register poll has correctly projected the Democratic caucus-winner every cycle since its inception in 1988, and Clinton's indisputable head start in rural counties will lend her a powerful advantage.

But after running a campaign that many Iowa Democrats initially believed was only intended to send a message, Sanders is now within a hair's breadth of victory. By carefully filling holes in his ground game and encouraging his collegiate base to fan out statewide, the Vermont senator who once seemed an afterthought has given himself a real chance to win.

How real? Even Clinton's supporters think it's a mistake to count her rival out because of his slight organizational disadvantage.

"I don't think it's going to hurt him, because he has ignited a fire in people's hearts," says Krier. "And that is not to be taken lightly."


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: caucus; democraticprimary; iowa; sanders
The close race in Iowa between Clinton and Sanders will make it harder for Democrats to switch to Republican and caucus for Trump.

Sanders and Trump have been vying for each others voters.

What to do?

What to do?

1 posted on 02/01/2016 6:14:38 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

2 posted on 02/01/2016 6:18:41 AM PST by RavenLooneyToon (Trump or Cruz, if you don't vote then STFU and leave the country, non-voters =non-Republic.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

If one looks at a county map of Iowa for the 2008 Democrat caucuses

http://politicalmaps.org/2008-iowa-caucus-election-results-maps/

it can be seen that Obama won a fair number of mostly rural counties. Bernie can repeat that, and probably do more.


3 posted on 02/01/2016 6:23:11 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

A better title would have been “Sander’s socialism quietly threatens rural Iowa”


4 posted on 02/01/2016 6:24:11 AM PST by armydawg505
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Hillary is complaining about being exhausted. Not what an old lady running for President should do. I'm 72 and in much better shape then she is and I don't have to wear tents.

I remember her last campaign....IIRC, she broke out in tears she was so exhausted.

Now, all we need is a dizzy spell....and it's all over.

Still think we'll wind up with a draft Biden campaign...or worse...Bloomers.

5 posted on 02/01/2016 6:24:54 AM PST by Sacajaweau
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To: armydawg505

6 posted on 02/01/2016 6:25:23 AM PST by RavenLooneyToon (Trump or Cruz, if you don't vote then STFU and leave the country, non-voters =non-Republic.)
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To: jjotto

As the article describes, it depends on whether Sanders has convinced enough student supporters to leave campus, return to their rural homes and drag their relatives and friends out tonight to caucus.


7 posted on 02/01/2016 6:28:22 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: armydawg505

Yes, that would be very accurate.


8 posted on 02/01/2016 6:29:41 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Obama didn’t win Kossuth County, Iowa, in 2008 because college students convinced their relatives to vote for him!


9 posted on 02/01/2016 6:43:20 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: jjotto

I related what the article suggests will help Sanders (and that they say helped Obama beat Hillary in the rural counties).

If you have additional information please add it to the thread.


10 posted on 02/01/2016 6:46:10 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Outside of college towns, Iowa Democrats’ main supporters are in areas with a strong Catholic presence. A fair number of them are to the left of Hillary.


11 posted on 02/01/2016 6:52:18 AM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: jjotto

Okay.

But do they get out and caucus?

I think the Obama-Sanders strategy was/is: get the rabid socialists currently back at school and have them drag their relatives and friends out to participate.

They were home on break when Obama won but the caucus date has been change so they’ll have to drive home to work that angle this time around.

I wonder if the DNC made that change to block for Hillary.


12 posted on 02/01/2016 6:56:48 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: jjotto; All

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_RDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-01-05-41-01

“....While both parties caucus on the same night, they do so with different rules.

Republicans vote by private ballot. The state’s 30 Republican delegates are awarded proportionally based on the stateside vote.

Democrats take a more interactive approach, with voters forming groups and publicly declaring their support for a candidate. If the number of people in any group is fewer than 15 percent of the total, they can either choose not to participate or can join another viable candidate’s group.

Those numbers are awarded proportionately, based on statewide and congressional district voting, as Iowa Democrats determine their 44 delegates to the national convention....”


13 posted on 02/01/2016 7:07:13 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Why would there be so many communists in rural Iowa? People who want their farms to be collectivized?


14 posted on 02/01/2016 7:12:29 AM PST by SC_Pete
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I thought the Dems wanted Jeb as the softest target for November?


15 posted on 02/01/2016 7:13:18 AM PST by nascarnation
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To: SC_Pete

Government crop subsidies.


16 posted on 02/01/2016 7:26:40 AM PST by mplsconservative
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To: armydawg505

The MidWest has always been tempted by socialism and other similar themes. It would be no surprise for Sanders to do well there.


17 posted on 02/01/2016 7:56:01 AM PST by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: mplsconservative

Yeah, but commies don’t stop there. Freedom and private ownership itself are at risk when you vote commie.


18 posted on 02/01/2016 8:21:03 AM PST by SC_Pete
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To: SC_Pete

You and I know that. I’m not so sure that they do. They’re just looking out for their own self interest. I believe it’s an ignorance is bliss sort of thing, short-sighted and not intelligent in the long run. Makes me want to bang my head against the wall. I’ve known people that think that way. It’s frightening.


19 posted on 02/01/2016 8:30:23 AM PST by mplsconservative
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