Posted on 02/02/2016 10:23:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Iowa pollsters' losses were Ted Cruz's gain Monday night, as even the most storied surveys of the Hawkeye State's electorate missed the Texas senator's surging momentum.
Cruz cruised to victory in the early-voting state's caucuses, easily beating bombastic billionaire Donald Trump 27.6% to 24.3%, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finishing a close third, with 23.1%.
But polls, even ones released just hours before voters headed to caucus-locations, showed Trump in the solid lead: A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%, while a Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23%.
How did they get it so wrong?
(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...
A better question is how were the entrance polls so wrong?
Every one of them had people going into the caucus locations for Trump 27-23.
because in Iowa you have your neighbors talking you into who to vote, and enough people didn’t want to be seen standing in the Trump corner with the rest of the mouth breathers.
These the same polls that predicted a Romney victory in 2012?
Simply put, polls are not information, polls are opinion swaying devices.
Wishful thinking and ignoring some obvious signs of trouble.
A win in Iowa does not mean a win in the other states. Huckaby won Iowa in 2008 and Santorum won in 2012.
Trump says its the polls that matter most and he is at the top of them still.
Perhaps some people don’t like to talk to pollsters and tend to share certain political leanings?
So did W
So did dole
so.. yes it means a win except when it doesn’t.
Cruz cheated! [s]
I think it’s difficult to accurately poll for a small turnout with a big field of candidates.
The total R votes last night was about 150,000 split among 5 major contenders.
Caliph Baraq got over 800,000 votes in Nov 2012.
My understanding is that the caucus votes are by secret ballot. It is the democrats that do that. But yes, a very persuasive speaker can sway caucus goers. Or given the known behavior of the establishment leaders in Mississippi and in Virginia, and other diverse places, a lot of fraud and manipulation and downright lying was going on. We know for instance, that the Cruz campaign lied about Carson’s withdrawing — a truly Romney-esque lie! I am quite certain that the elites don’t mind a Cruz win, they are going to take him out at the convention over his eligibility issues and give his delegates to an establishment (Bush?) candidate. I thik they will do the same with Rubio.
The MSM polls were done most likely by people who wanted Trump to be in the lead, as Cruz scares the hell out of them...................
Generally, I lie when I do surveys. I tell people I am of a different race, and give them false leads. I LOVE TO DO THIS. It’s a game. Even when the Census takers come, I never give my true religion or my true race. KIND OF LIKE THE MODERN THING, I DO IDENTIFY AS A WOMAN, OR BLACK, OR MIGHT EVEN BE A WHITE MAN LOCKED IN A BLACK BODY.
The polls weren’t wrong. Creative counting and a conveniently tweaked Microsoft app did the job they were supposed to do.
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