Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
Excuse me, Trump contributed to Harry Reid and the DSCC..so how exactly do you see a New York liberal having the tea party?
Could be.
Honey.. PUT DOWN THE CRACK PIPE.. PLEASE!
I think the general point here is exactly right. Trump voters are making a huge mistake if they consider the makeup of voters in New Hampshire to be a sign of some kind of mandate as they head south.
I still rationally think and emotionally hope that Cruz will win the nomination.
He is up by 10 in Georgia also.
I just don’t think things in Georgia are all that rosy for a Cruz win here myself.
Bullshit
This author ignores South Carolina polls and it’s an open state too more or less
Listen up Yankees
Y’all think Trump can’t win in Dixie?
He’s ahead in every poll down here and did you happen to notice the crowds he gets here
Southerners can and will get behind the right Yankee even if Jewish...hell we’re Levins top audience market...and Trumps a Presbyterian...an easier sell admittedly.....PCA is third largest group here
I lived in Manhattan once many years ago and I think I qualify as very southern
I got on great with the Italians in Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst...they just talk a little funny
Trumps real speak on Islam and immigration sells down here where we don’t cotton to political correctness so much given our peculiar institutions and history and lack of white guilt
I think you like to read publications for the way you wish it was vs reality.
Trump is leading in South Carolina, and will most likely win it with the momentum coming out of New Hampshire.
Trump leads in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan, Maryland, New York, Colorado, Mississippi and Nevada.
Hahaha! It never ends.
You are forgetting something.
People think Cruz is a cheater after the Iowa race. No one likes a cheater.
Everything is looking very favorable for Trump.
I've lived in the upper-mid west, the east, the south and the west.
I know Americans are open minded and inclusive.
You (if I'm reading you correctly) are intimating that I think there is a prejudice in the South against Yankees.
That isn't my view, though they're much more conservative, culturally and economically, than a NYC liberal named Donald Trump.
So hard to keep my trap shut.
;)
Rubio took third place in Iowa, and it was reported like he won. Cruz took third place in NH, and apparently that counts as a win and makes him front runner. I can see why the establishment loves Jeb so much - Jeb Bush could come in third in a two person race, and they would report that as a win.
That be some good stuff you all been smokin.
I guess you missed (and you’re obviously not alone in that) the essence of the article - the point.
The harder Cruz works at getting votes the more we hear and see methods that are on the edge of being legal if not flagrantly over it because of lack of enforcement.
Cruz is simply unlikeable.
Now if he had a tv show, his on airline, or a casino, a hotel, a merchandise line then he can sell his brand image.
But America is looking for something else, myself i think all the undecideds came to a similar conclusion, lets just elect the one we have seen so much of on Tv, the one thats being hated so much by that has been making a disaster of America.
They are taking Trump at his word, they don’t trust Cruz because his word is like trying to spend canadian money on the us side of the border.
Oh there is indeed a prejudice against a stereotypical Yankee in the south...especially the Deep South
But it’s pretty superficial....if a Yankee comes here and is gregarious and says y’all and supports our ways
We welcome them....wholeheartedly....two of my key workers are Yankees.....Ohio and Michigan
Trump for many endless argument reasons is popular here
Being frank and politically incorrect is part of it
But if a Yankee comes here and looks down on us and say organizes to strip our CSA memorials and stuff then we detest them
75 years ago we would have violently run them out or hanged them
The Los Angeles and other west coast sorts are most likely to be that way at least in the exploding Nashville metroplex
Trump.. a Democrat won nh.. what a shock. They love his socialists ways and esp his single payor government funded healthcare. I would have thought something is wrong if he won nh. Ronald Reagan won 5.3 percent in 1984. Probably had an obamabots or two vote for his cuz Donald.
My wife told me that he got 20% Democrat votes, which would make sense since he leads all other Republican candidates in the liberal/moderate category.
“Who writes this stuff, Cruz’s wife???”
That might be a conflict of interest for a Goldman Sachs executive and CFR operative.
My guess would be Beck. How that squares with the need for civil defense rations I am not sure.
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