Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.
Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.
As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.
In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.
The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.
Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.
Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.
Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.
Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.
Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.
My understanding is, if Cruz gets more than 10% of the vote, which it looks like he will get, he will get a proportionate number of delegates.
His delegates are not listed on the websites now, because the counting is not over.
I would love to see Rubio get 9.99999% of the vote and get no delegates.
You're probably one of those sheep who pay income tax because you don't know the Constitution wasn't properly amended. I'll bet you don't even know Texas is really an independent country for the same reason.
If people weren't so gullible, they'd immediately know the writer of this article hit the nail on the bullseye!
Almost none deserve to be taken seriously.
I agree with you that Cruz has peaked early and the piece we are commenting on is delusional at best.
Trump is ahead in SC in RCP averages by 16 points. His lead isn't going down in the next few days after winning NH. It may go up.
If Trump wins SC, he's a runaway train.
Trump is the overwhelming favorite.
I agree. Which is one reason I think Trump will implode or be blocked.
It said on CNN Trump and Kasich got delegates but nobody else.
Look how screwed up the Dems are. Hillary WON!
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-02-09#NH-Dem
Actually, he is in second place and will probably remain there. I can see him getting closer to Trump as time goes on, but I wouldn’t bet any money on it. As for the rest, they’re toast.
Looks like Trump is up as of right now by 17% in SC. That’s an awful lot of votes he needs to lose. It’s possible Ted makes a big move, but I have my doubts.
That’s sweet.
Actually, I was buoyed by Cruz picking up 2 more delegates - and in NH! no less.
The media pretty much ignored him all week, and if they mentioned him it was quite dismissive, so I’m quite pleased with the turnout in NH for Ted Cruz.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
Surely you are better than this.
Will Cruz endorse and support Trump or Jebbie when the time comes ?
[I woulda been happier with a Cruz second place finish, because Kasich is a waste of space]
There’s no guarantee CRUZ will finish 3rd. Apparently they stopped counted the votes at 92% of the precincts in. How long does it take a little state like that to count a few votes?
if any of this piece was close to true Cruz would have a good lead in SC right now.. he doesn’t.. he is getting trounced here in SC by about what he was getting kicked in NH by,, then Trump is going to get a decent bump in SC from his huge victory in NH and just how is Cruz going to win SC again?.. btw SC doesn’t vote on religion like Iowa either no matter how many evangelicals live here.. those are good old boys and they like to kick ass,, Trump kind of people.. plus a huge number of retired military,, another big Trump voter base
It’s time to stop the infighting. Cruz will make a great vp.
I actually said I was "happy as hell".
Reading comprehension: it's not just for humans.
Here you go, CW, some like-minded smear-artists have a seat at their table for you:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3395108/posts
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