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Why Ted Cruz is now the Republican front-runner
The Washington Examiner ^ | February 9, 2015 | Philip Klein

Posted on 02/09/2016 10:43:20 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

MANCHESTER, N.H. - Donald Trump may have come out of New Hampshire with the victory, but Sen. Ted Cruz has emerged as the Republican front-runner.

Though Trump's victory in New Hampshire was no doubt impressive, the electorate of independent voters and super high turnout was tailor-made for him, whereas Cruz didn't put substantial effort into winning the state - where very conservative candidates don't typically do as well. He is currently in position to win third here, with votes still outstanding.

As the race moves to South Carolina, however, Cruz has a ground game in place and the electorate is much more tailored to his strengths.

In Iowa, Cruz dominated Trump among "very conservative" voters, who made up 40 percent of the electorate, and evangelicals, who made up 62 percent of voters. But when it came to New Hampshire, evangelicals only comprised 25 percent of the electorate and "very conservative" voters dropped to 27 percent.

The South Carolina electorate is much closer to the Iowa electorate. In 2012, evangelicals were 65 percent of the electorate and very conservative voters were 36 percent of the electorate.

Furthermore, in Iowa, Cruz had to fend off Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who were all competing for similar voters. Carson received 9 percent in Iowa, and though Huckabee didn't perform well, he did serve as an anti-Cruz attack dog to evangelicals. Now, Huckabee and Santorum are out, and Carson enters South Carolina greatly hobbled.

Though the RealClearPolitics average currently has Trump up 16 points over Cruz in South Carolina, that's misleading, because none of the polls were taken after Cruz's win in Iowa.

Furthermore, now that the field has narrowed down and Trump has won a primary and proven himself a serious threat, there will be a lot more focus on his liberal record - on abortion, guns, healthcare, property rights - among other issues. It won't dissuade his strongest supporters, but it doesn't matter, because it will discourage enough very conservative voters and evangelicals to give Cruz the victory.

Which brings us to Rubio's poor performance in New Hampshire. The fact that Cruz was able to best Rubio in a more moderate state where Rubio should have been a lot stronger, is more good news for Cruz.

Had Rubio won a strong second in New Hampshire, he could have knocked Kasich and Bush out of the race and emerged as a serious threat in South Carolina. Now Rubio will still have to spend his time in the state trying to fend of Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016election; allahpundit; canadian; clownforcruz; cluelessnees; conservative; cruz; cruzattackbots; cruzwhorship; delusions; desperation; election2016; gopprimary; hotair; ineligible; kasich; losersforcruz; newhampshire; putdownthecrackpipe; rubio; rushlimbaugh; texas; trump
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Cruz didn’t spend any money in NH and came in third. He beat Jeb Bush who outspent him 62-1!


81 posted on 02/09/2016 11:22:03 PM PST by GeronL (I remember when this was a conservative forum)
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To: freedomjusticeruleoflaw

I think not.


82 posted on 02/09/2016 11:22:23 PM PST by Crucial (At the heart all leftidsts sw the fear that the truth is bigger than themselves.)
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To: D-fendr

Are people that stupid?


83 posted on 02/09/2016 11:23:06 PM PST by GeronL (I remember when this was a conservative forum)
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To: GeronL

Dunno. Maybe we have to invoke the New Hampshire Exception Rule?


84 posted on 02/09/2016 11:24:36 PM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: D-fendr
Likewise, I appreciate your thoughts and the kind manner in which you replied.

Voting for any politician is a risk, no matter who it is. We've seen over and over how they lie to get votes. We must all do the best job we can to select the candidate we agree with on the biggest issues, and hope for the best.

I'll cast my lot with Trump; at least he won't be in any donors pockets. I'm at peace with the decision. I assume your man is Cruz, and I wish you peace with your decision as well.

85 posted on 02/09/2016 11:25:59 PM PST by TontoKowalski (Satisfied Customer #291)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Would you please post the link to your information.
Trump Wins Every Demographic, Including Beating Cruz by 12% for "very conservative" voters
86 posted on 02/09/2016 11:27:04 PM PST by lewislynn
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To: Helicondelta

That is my point, let the establishment candidates spend their capital attacking the insurgent candidates and each other. The insurgents shouldn’t attack each other; it will just create hard feelings between the Trump and Cruz supporters and help one of the establishment candidates eventually prevail.


87 posted on 02/09/2016 11:28:26 PM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: LowOiL

It was a good night for Cruz for sure.


88 posted on 02/09/2016 11:28:37 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: fireman15
Jeb Bush Spent $1200 Per Vote In New Hampshire


89 posted on 02/09/2016 11:33:25 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: lewislynn

Thanks!

An exit poll.

I suppose a “very conservative” person in NH is a bit different than a “very conservative” person in, say, Texas.

I appreciate the link and the information.


90 posted on 02/09/2016 11:36:11 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Kazan

As mentioned in the article, that SC poll is ancient.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html


91 posted on 02/09/2016 11:37:50 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All

Prolifers might be interested in reading this article before they vote:

“I Was Conceived in Rape, But Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are Okay If I’d Been Aborted”

read more: http://www.lifenews.com/2016/02/09/i-was-conceived-in-rape-but-chris-christie-and-jeb-bush-are-okay-if-id-been-aborted/

Speaking of Ted Cruz, he and Rubio, are the only ones who would support Rebecca, by not allowing her to be killed.

Rebecca is now a lawyer, and has five children of her own.

CHOOSE LIFE!


92 posted on 02/09/2016 11:38:17 PM PST by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Trumpeteers said that in Iowa and its to be expected coming out of your little win in a blue state but South Carolina will put an end to your reckless speculation. Trump could just as likely face the same fate as Buchanan did after carrying New Hampshire.


93 posted on 02/09/2016 11:39:55 PM PST by A Conservative Thinker (Ted Cruz 2016)
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To: Washi

Its Trump Cruz.The rest are part of the problem.


94 posted on 02/09/2016 11:41:29 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Boohoo, ya lose, again. You sure can pick’em. Bwahahahahahahshhaha!


95 posted on 02/09/2016 11:43:16 PM PST by VRWC For Truth (FUBO)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Should Cruz carry South Carolina, he will have won two out of the first three primary states, severely wounding both Trump and Rubio. That's why he should be considered the front-runner.

That's the first thing you've said that makes any sense, Mr. Klein.

96 posted on 02/09/2016 11:43:18 PM PST by map
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To: GeronL

I love that.Thank you


97 posted on 02/09/2016 11:43:25 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: enduserindy

Trump will have the Tea Party, he will need to reach towards women or minorities.


98 posted on 02/09/2016 11:43:57 PM PST by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Western Civilization- whisper the words, and it will disappear. So let us talk now about rebirth.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Oh my. . CW, it’s over.


99 posted on 02/09/2016 11:45:32 PM PST by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Western Civilization- whisper the words, and it will disappear. So let us talk now about rebirth.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Because distant third is the new win?


100 posted on 02/09/2016 11:48:47 PM PST by DannyTN
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