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Ted Cruz Keeps Winning [Race Analysis]
The Nation ^ | 2/10/16 | George Zornick

Posted on 02/10/2016 7:13:12 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas

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To: euram

Matter of fact, all the polls in the South that I’ve seen show Trump leading, except TX, where Cruz is 4 points up.
*******************************************

Cruz is leading in Arkansas too. There are not a lot of polls in other March 1 states, so will shall see.


61 posted on 02/10/2016 9:09:34 AM PST by kara37
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To: odawg
Trump being consistent:

Enter the Donald, Take Two - 2011
How will the Trump 2012 presidential campaign explain the Trump 2000 presidential campaign?

"We must have universal healthcare," wrote Trump. "I'm a conservative on most issues but a liberal on this one. We should not hear so many stories of families ruined by healthcare expenses."

The goal of health care reform, wrote Trump, should be a system that looks a lot like Canada. "Doctors might be paid less than they are now, as is the case in Canada, but they would be able to treat more patients because of the reduction in their paperwork," he writes.

The Canadian plan also helps Canadians live longer and healthier than Americans. There are fewer medical lawsuits, less loss of labor to sickness, and lower costs to companies paying for the medical care of their employees. If the program were in place in Massachusetts in 1999 it would have reduced administrative costs by $2.5 million. We need, as a nation, to reexamine the single-payer plan, as many individual states are doing.

-snip-

In The America We Deserve, Trump proposed a one-time 14.25 percent tax on individuals and trusts "with a net worth of over $10 million." He predicted that it would raise $5.7 trillion, "which we would use to pay off the national debt" and pay for Social Security. (The first part of this seems quaint now.)

"By imposing a one-time 14.25 percent net-worth tax on the richest individuals and trusts," he explained, "we can put America on sound financial footing for the next century." Like basically every other Trump idea, this one came with a story of epiphany and self-sacrifice. "The plan would cost me $700 million personally in the short term, but it would be worth it.

62 posted on 02/10/2016 9:09:36 AM PST by justlittleoleme (Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.)
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To: justlittleoleme

The Clintons releasing all their records on Trump is for a reason...they must know there is material damaging to Trump therein, and don’t want Hillary to face Trump in the Presidential race (IF, AND IT IS A BIG IF, she can get the nomination). The Clintons were not so keen to release stuff on Obama regarding Obummer’s citizenship/birth status that Bill Clinton was hinting about in the Presidential election previously, no doubt coz’ Obummer had equally damaging goods on the Clintons. Hope The Donald has some damaging goods on the Clintons he can use to neutralize this threat.


63 posted on 02/10/2016 9:11:02 AM PST by kiltie65
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To: justlittleoleme

The release of those records will mean exactly nothing.


64 posted on 02/10/2016 9:13:31 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: jstaff

The democratic primary was between 2 candidates and the republican was split 8 ways. So I don’t no if that is a valid comparison. Comparing the total number of votes cast in the democrat primary vs the total votes cast in the republican primary might be a better predictor of outcomes in the general. Trump appears to be turning out new voters.


65 posted on 02/10/2016 9:24:30 AM PST by McCarthysGhost
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To: deport
I think it is less than 12 that are true winner take all.

You are right, it is 9 states, about 400 delegates. But if Kasich is still running on March 15, he could get Ohio which is a winner take all state.

66 posted on 02/10/2016 9:34:59 AM PST by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: Kenny
It's one of my biggest complaints about him that he pushed TPA, voted for cloture, then changed his vote when it wasn't needed.

Cruz's vote wasn't need for TPA cloture. I believe there were 63 votes.

67 posted on 02/10/2016 9:45:17 AM PST by FreeReign
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To: CA Conservative

But if Kasich is still running on March 15, he could get
Ohio which is a winner take all state.

**********

I was watching one of the channels reporting on NH last night and they did discuss
that possibility and hinted that it was Kasich’s goal. We’ll see.


68 posted on 02/10/2016 9:46:29 AM PST by deport
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To: FreeReign
Cruz's vote wasn't need for TPA cloture. I believe there were 63 votes.

True but they couldn't have votes peeled off at that point. There was sufficient strong opposition, Senator Sessions for one, to make it wobbly.

69 posted on 02/10/2016 10:14:04 AM PST by Kenny (RED)
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To: dynoman
State Date Delegates Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Carson Fiorina Christie Delegate
Allocation
Open/
Closed
(1,237 Needed to Win) - 2,472 17 10 7 4 3 3 1 0 - -
IAIowa February 1 30 7 8 7 1 1 3 1 0 Proportional Closed
NHNew Hampshire February 9 23 10 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 Proportional* Open**

70 posted on 02/10/2016 10:32:04 AM PST by Lucky9teen (God's blessing has been on America from the very beginning, and I believe God isn't done yet. TCruz)
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To: justlittleoleme

“We need, as a nation, to reexamine the single-payer plan, as many individual states are doing.”

Whoever wrote that, and it reads like an abstract, is putting his own words in. No state is “reexamining single-payer”.


71 posted on 02/10/2016 10:36:55 AM PST by odawg
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To: going hot

three million - LOL!!!


72 posted on 02/10/2016 10:42:30 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: CA Conservative
OP Delegate Count | GOP Popular Vote | Dem Delegate Count | Dem Popular Vote
State Date Delegates Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Carson Fiorina Christie Delegate
Allocation
Open/
Closed
(1,237 Needed to Win) - 2,472 17 10 7 4 3 3 1 0 - -
IAIowa February 1 30 7 8 7 1 1 3 1 0 Proportional Closed
NHNew Hampshire February 9 23 10 2 0 3 2 0 0 0 Proportional* Open**
SCSouth Carolina February 20 50 Winner Take AllV Open
NVNevada February 23 30 Proportional Closed
ALAlabama March 1 50 Proportional*#V Open
AKAlaska March 1 28 Proportional* Closed
ARArkansas March 1 40 Proportional*# Open
COColorado March 1 37 Unbound Closed
GAGeorgia March 1 76 Proportional*#V Open
MAMassachusetts March 1 42 Proportional* Open**
MNMinnesota March 1 38 Proportional*#V Open
NDNorth Dakota March 1 28 Unbound Closed
OKOklahoma March 1 43 Proportional*#V Closed
TNTennessee March 1 58 Proportional*#V Open
TXTexas March 1 155 Proportional*#V Open
VTVermont March 1 16 Proportional*# Open
VAVirginia March 1 49 Proportional Open
WYWyoming March 1 29 Unbound Closed
KSKansas March 5 40 Proportional*V Closed
KYKentucky March 5 45 Proportional* Closed
LALouisiana March 5 47 Proportional*V Closed
MEMaine March 5 23 Proportional*# Closed
PRPuerto Rico March 6 23 Proportional*# Open
HIHawaii March 8 19 Proportional*V Closed
IDIdaho March 8 32 Proportional*# Closed
MIMichigan March 8 59 Proportional*# Closed
MSMississippi March 8 40 Proportional*V Open
GUGuam March 12 9 Unbound Closed
DCDistrict of Columbia March 12 19 Proportional* Closed
FLFlorida March 15 99 Winner Take All Closed
ILIllinois March 15 69 Winner Take AllV Open
MOMissouri March 15 52 Winner Take AllV Open
NCNorth Carolina March 15 72 Proportional Open**
MPNorthern Marianas March 15 9 Winner Take All Closed
OHOhio March 15 66 Winner Take All Open**
VIVirgin Islands March 19 9 Winner Take All Open
ASAmerican Samoa March 22 9 Unbound Open
AZArizona March 22 58 Winner Take All Open
UTUtah March 22 40 Proportional*# Closed
WIWisconsin April 5 42 Winner Take AllV Open
NYNew York April 19 95 Proportional*#V Closed
CTConnecticut April 26 28 Proportional*#V Closed
DEDelaware April 26 16 Winner Take All Closed
MDMaryland April 26 38 Winner Take AllV Closed
PAPennsylvania April 26 71 Winner Take AllV Closed
RIRhode Island April 26 19 Proportional*V Open**
INIndiana May 3 57 Winner Take AllV Open
NENebraska May 10 36 Winner Take All Closed
WVWest Virginia May 10 34 Direct Election Open**
OROregon May 17 28 Proportional Closed
WAWashington May 24 44 Proportional*V Closed
CACalifornia June 7 172 Winner Take AllV Closed
MTMontana June 7 27 Winner Take All Open
NJNew Jersey June 7 51 Winner Take All Open**
NMNew Mexico June 7 24 Proportional* Closed
SDSouth Dakota June 7 29 Winner Take All Closed
Unpledged RNC - 168 Open




Open**
Republicans and Independents can vote in these primaries, but Democrats can't.


* - Threshold
Candidates have to reach a certain level of support to earn delegates
10% threshold: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Kansas, Maine, Rhode Island
20% threshold: Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, Idaho, New York, Connecticut, Washington
15% threshold: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Mississippi, District of Columbia, Utah, New Mexico
5% threshold: Massachusetts, Kentucky
13% threshold: Alaska


# - Ceiling
Candidates can win all at-large or all delegates by surpassing a certain level of support.


The ceiling is 50 percent in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont, Maine, Puerto Rico, Idaho, Michigan, Utah and Connecticut.


The ceiling is 66 percent in Tennessee.


The ceiling is 85 percent in Minnesota.


If a candidate reaches the ceiling in Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee or Texas, he or she earns all the at-large delegates from the state.


If a candidate reaches the ceiling in Georgia, Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, Puerto Rico, Idaho, Michigan, Utah or Connecticut, he or she earns all the at-large and congressional district delegates from the state.


Arkansas: every candidate who gets over 15 percent gets one at-large delegate. If no candidate gets over 50 percent, the remaining delegates are allocated proportionally among those who get over 15 percent. If a candidate gets over 50 percent, he or she gets the remaining at-large delegates.


V - Congressional District Delegates


Congressional district delegates are allocated according to results in that district rather than statewide. The rules are the same for the at-large and congressional delegates (e.g. same floor, same ceiling, proportional or WTA, etc.) in most states. Here are the states in which they differ significantly and the ways in which they differ:


Arkansas - the congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally with no threshold, unless a candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in that district. In that case they get all three delegates.


Georgia and Minnesota - There's no ceiling in the congressional districts.


Louisiana - There's no threshold in the congressional districts.


Mississippi - There's not threshold in the congressional districts and if a candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in a district, he or she gets all the delegates from that district.


Illinois and Pennsylvania - at-large delegates are WTA by statewide vote, but congressional delegates delegates are elected directly.


Missouri - Nine at-large delegates are allocated to the statewide winner, and five delegates are allocated to the winner of each congressional district. If a candidate gets over 50 percent he or she gets all the delegates.


Connecticut - Plurality winner in each congressional district gets all three delegates.


Rhode Island - If three candidates get over 10 percent in a congressional district, they each get one delegate. If any candidate gets over 67 percent in a district, they get all three delegates.

73 posted on 02/10/2016 11:03:54 AM PST by Lucky9teen (God's blessing has been on America from the very beginning, and I believe God isn't done yet. TCruz)
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To: No Dems 2016
This means that independents and even Dems can vote in the GOP primary and I believe that bodes well for Trump.

It normally would, but they might be motivated to stay in their own primary this time around, since there's actually a race.

74 posted on 02/10/2016 1:36:20 PM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: going hot

Cruz will need to win Iowa to beat the liberals. So he wisely allocated sufficient funds and time.

NH is a totally different story. Very liberal not needed to reach 270.


75 posted on 02/10/2016 6:26:35 PM PST by proudpapa (trusTed!)
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To: going hot

Cruz will need to win Iowa to beat the liberals. So he wisely allocated sufficient funds and time.

NH is a totally different story. Very liberal not needed to reach 270.


76 posted on 02/10/2016 6:26:42 PM PST by proudpapa (trusTed!)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
It normally would, but they might be motivated to stay in their own primary this time around, since there's actually a race.

The Democrats yes but not independents.

77 posted on 02/10/2016 9:57:47 PM PST by No Dems 2016
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