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South Carolina Poll – Donald Trump 36%, Ted Cruz 19% (Trump above 50% with second choice)
The Conservative Treehouse ^ | 2/12/2016 | Sundance

Posted on 02/13/2016 8:29:38 AM PST by GilGil

A close review of the poll internals, shows some remarkable and consistent insights when contrast against ground reports, alternate polling and field data. What many political junkies might find remarkable is the dominance of the Trump coalition.

After reviewing the poll data, the current decisions of the Trump campaign’s approach in South Carolina make VERY good sense.

When you review the poll data take note of what the pollster calls Horse Race #1, and Horse Race #2, the first preference and second preference of the SC electorate.

Only Donald Trump extends well beyond 50% when both first and second choices are combined. That’s an important factor.

(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire; US: New York; US: South Carolina; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016polls; carolina; cnsrvtvtreehouse; election; election2016; glennbeck; marklevin; newhampshire; newyork; primaries; sc2016; southcarolina; sundance; tedcruz; texas; trump
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I have been noticing this second choice influence for a while now namely that Trump gets closer to 60% support when the second choice vote is factored in. Hugh Hewitt right after Trump's New Hampshire win said Trump was finished because he could not get more than 40% support ( imagine if this were Bush). My reaction was that when factoring in the secondary vote Trump gets close to 60%. Heads are exploding all over America at the thought of this conclusion.
1 posted on 02/13/2016 8:29:38 AM PST by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Boom!!! The sound of GOPe heads exploding is sweat to my ears.

Go Trump!


2 posted on 02/13/2016 8:31:24 AM PST by TheStickman
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To: GilGil

Allocation method SC: winner-take-most/winner-take-all by congressional district

Not sure what this means but here’s the url:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_14.html


3 posted on 02/13/2016 8:32:08 AM PST by Signalman
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To: GilGil

the real message is trump + Cruz = 55%

All the others have become pretenders


4 posted on 02/13/2016 8:34:22 AM PST by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc;+12, 73, ....carson is the kinder gentler trump.)
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To: TheStickman

Wear your rain coat and hat there is brain splatter all over the walls. don’t get dirty.


5 posted on 02/13/2016 8:35:03 AM PST by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Go Trump!


6 posted on 02/13/2016 8:36:03 AM PST by Ciexyz
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To: GilGil
"Sundance," pro-Clinton/Trump hack from TheConservativeTtreehouse.com, is Mark Ivor Bradman. He's got a long and notorious history of "getting it wrong".
7 posted on 02/13/2016 8:36:42 AM PST by Theo (Trump = French Revolution. Cruz = American Revolution. Choose wisely.)
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To: GilGil

Latest news is that Trump has to select Kasich as VP in order the win the general election.


8 posted on 02/13/2016 8:37:27 AM PST by Daniel Ramsey (You don't have to like Trump, his enemies certainly don't.)
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To: Daniel Ramsey

Was Kasich the son of a mailman?


9 posted on 02/13/2016 8:38:09 AM PST by GilGil
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To: Daniel Ramsey
Kasich? No way. Did you see him on Greta last night? She asked him about machete terror attack and he said people are lonely. It was horrible.
10 posted on 02/13/2016 8:41:06 AM PST by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: Daniel Ramsey

I don’t know that’s true but the idea is not without merit. Trump has to win in order for anything to happen, and if Kasich could bring Ohio, that’s Yuge. Sure Kasich is a softie but he’d have a damned tough boss, and he has a good track record in Ohio plus a good resume in and out of government. I don’t like the notion that he’d be set-up for the Presidency but that is the exception rather than the rule anyway.


11 posted on 02/13/2016 8:43:17 AM PST by bigbob ("Victorious warriors win first and then go to war" Sun Tzu.)
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To: GilGil

Loveable Lindsey is going to lower the boom on his Palmettoites.


12 posted on 02/13/2016 8:44:20 AM PST by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
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To: Theodore R.

We adoringly call him Miss Lindsey!


13 posted on 02/13/2016 8:45:43 AM PST by GilGil
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To: TornadoAlley3

Well i don’t think he is qualified to be VP, he is just a static clinger for votes from Cruz, Jeb and Roboto.

So i suppose the master computer says Trump has to bring in Kasich like a super magnet, just to get the needed ekectoral votes.


14 posted on 02/13/2016 8:46:49 AM PST by Daniel Ramsey (You don't have to like Trump, his enemies certainly don't.)
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To: Daniel Ramsey

I really he does not pick Kasich. Can’t stand the guy and he is establishment to the core.


15 posted on 02/13/2016 8:50:16 AM PST by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Trump won’t blab strategy, and i won’t either.

But without a doubt he is very smart, and finds even smarter people to advize him.


16 posted on 02/13/2016 8:53:30 AM PST by Daniel Ramsey (You don't have to like Trump, his enemies certainly don't.)
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To: TornadoAlley3

Watching Kasich and Jeb! in this process makes me wonder how did these two get elected so many times in the first place?


17 posted on 02/13/2016 8:55:38 AM PST by AC86UT89
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To: GilGil

Kasich as VP?

Not my favorite, but I am for whatever pairing produces the most conservative Presidential candidate with the highest chance to win.


18 posted on 02/13/2016 8:57:53 AM PST by AC86UT89
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To: AC86UT89

They got elected with establishment support.


19 posted on 02/13/2016 8:58:11 AM PST by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Hewitt just parrots Rove. Rove is always yammering about how Trump has a ceiling, so he can’t possibly win the nomination. He goes on to say that if Trump could get past 35 percent, he would have already done so. But, then Rove doesn’t explain why none of the others don’t seem to get beyond their much lower numbers, and if they were able to go beyond their low numbers they would have by now.

I always heard people saying that once the field gets smaller, Trump will surely lose, because all the others are the “anti-Trump” vote, and the “anti-Trump vote” would be helped by the narrowing of the field. Well, the field has narrowed rather significantly, Christie, Fiorina, Paul, Huckabee, Santorum, but Trump is holding his lead in almost all the state polls, and in all the national polls. The departure of so many “anti-Trump” candidates doesn’t seem to have helped anyone move up to a position to overtake Trump.


20 posted on 02/13/2016 8:58:56 AM PST by euram
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