Posted on 02/21/2016 2:33:24 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Obviously, at a most basic level Trump was a winner here, and the decisiveness of his ten-point win shouldn't be minimized. He is clearly the front-runner in the race right now and he looks to have won all of South Carolina's delegates. On the other hand, it is not just attempting to paint a bright picture for the Trump alternatives to say that Trump's results showed he is still quite beatable.
New Hampshire was a blowout for Trump. He beat his real competition there 35.3 to 22.3 (The combined share of Cruz and Rubio in NH) In South Carolina, things were much more competitive. Cruz and Rubio combined to take 46% of the vote, a number well in excess of Trump's-and there is no reason to believe that much of their vote, or anyone else in the race, will go Trump's way if one of them eventually dropped out.
In many ways, Marco Rubio had the best night, getting a badly needed second place finish (barely nipping Ted Cruz 22.5 to 22.3). I had argued previously that with the top three endorsements in the state, he needed a top two finish, and while his top-line number wasn't all that impressive given the number of heavyweights who lined up behind him, it was good enough to finish second. But what was more important for Rubio is what happened immediately after South Carolina when Jeb Bush suspended his campaign. It's not that Bush, who was polling at 5% nationally will send that many votes to Rubio (if anything, polling seems to suggest that many will go to Kasich), but loyalty to Bush had kept a great number of important GOP figures and donors on the sidelines. Many of these influencers figure to migrate to Rubio, when faced with a choice between him, Cruz and Trump, especially as the fairly dismal performances of Carson and Kasich confirmed that this is a three-man race. The trick for Rubio, however, is that he has to move quickly.
The most recent finance report announced Saturday showed Rubio with just $5 million on-hand, a trivial amount with which to run a national campaign. He has concentrated his efforts predominantly on the first few states (including Nevada, which votes Tuesday) But because he is not nearly as heavily organized as Cruz is in the Super-Tuesday states, he will have to rely on momentum, including an expected raft of expected new endorsements, to carry him through the next couple of weeks while he restocks his war chest. Regardless, having vanquished Bush, he leaves South Carolina far stronger than he left it.
For Cruz, last night was a mixed bag. Cruz actually outpolled his RealClearPolitics polling average by 3.8%, the most of any GOP candidate, and essentially finished in a dead-heat for second with Rubio. Furthermore, he cemented his claim as one of the clear three survivors in what is now effectively a three-man race. He continues to have the most cash on-hand of any candidate and sports the best organization in the upcoming Super Tuesday states. But for a campaign that has built much of its outreach strategy on evangelical voters, and has dominated in evangelical endorsements, losing this voting block to the profane Trump must be dispiriting, and it is a disquieting omen for the Southern "Super Tuesday" states on which Cruz has staked a great deal of his campaigns fortunes.
On the other hand, there is good reason to believe that Cruz is well positioned to do better on Super Tuesday than his respectable SC showing. Every candidate was on the ground numerous times in all of the early primary states (Iowa, NH, South Carolina). Leaders from each have been courted for many months now, and the candidates spent weeks on the ground in each state.
That simply isn't true for the Super Tuesday states, fourteen of whom vote on March 1st. Many campaigns have had almost no presence there and little organization. Their airwaves haven't been saturated with political ads, and with so many states to cover, voters won't be able to be won over with personal appeals. Turnout figures to be substantially lower than it was in the first three states. All of these factors award the best-organized candidate, and right now that candidate his Cruz, who, with his allied SuperPACs have concentrated most of their resources on these states from the very beginning.
The stakes will be high for Cruz on March 1st, but with a strong showing, including, perhaps a win in the biggest prize, his home state of Texas, Cruz could easily wind up in a very strong position after Super Tuesday.
However, if the goal is to stop Trump from winning the nomination, both Rubio and Cruz may have to alter their strategy going forward. Head-to-head polling regularly shows both Cruz and Rubio beating Trump one-on-one. It's partly for this reason that the two have trained their fire on each other, each hoping to be the one to take on Trump. What South Carolina shows is that this choice, appealing as it may be to each campaign in theory, may not really be available in practice. Neither Cruz nor Rubio seems likely to be able to easily vanquish the other. It may be that their only path to victory going forward is to work together to take Trump down.
Cruz should drop out and support Rubio in exchange for Scalia’s seat. He’s qualified, and it would be a patriotic thing to take Trump down, if we care at all about the Constitution. And we wouldn’t have to listen to Teds sanctimonious voice any more.
But Rubio’s got to clean up his act on immigration.
Putting lipstick on a loss.
Gee. You really think that’s cute or something? You post articles by Salon, Huffpo, NR, Politico all the time IF they say something bad about Trump.
BTW, that isn’t ‘my’ list. It’s on the cover of the “We hate Trump” issue.
So you agree with Hillary Clinton there is nothing to see at Benghazi. That was all conspiracy theory by those right wingers right?
You believe the Fast and Furious is just conspiracy theory? There is nothing to see there right???
What about Gruber on Obamacare? How Gruber one of the Architects admitted they lies to the American public.
I remember hearing people like you say you can keep your Doctor conspiracy theorist.
There are no death panels in Obamacare conspiracy theorist.
What about the Harvesting of Babies for profits? They kept some of the babies alive to sell their parts. Oh but that’s all conspiracy theory right?
It’s amazing how you don’t believe what your own eyes, ears and brain are telling you!!! Good grief woman WAKE UP!!!!
The idea of Cruz trading his healthy and well funded presidential candidacy for a seat on the SC is not going to happen.
And understand this:
Since Bork was skinned alive, anyone exhibiting any conservative ideology has been deemed ineligible [confirmation is near impossible]. And Cruz’s views are well known - including the 9 cases he took before the Supreme Court - Ted Cruz is the poster boy for conservative thought and action.
However, President Cruz would nominate and FIGHT for strong conservative justices.
I believe this “birther” business and the video about it by that woman, is insane.
Okay that’s fine, but that just one instance.
Do your own research, and don’t let others in the Establishment media mislead you.
What part of “we’re tired of the elite’s corrupt politics that have killed the middle class” does the National Review not understand?
Rubio is just another pawn of that elite and we don’t want him.
List them.
The false arguments against Trump continue.
GOPe is pushing the narrative that “more people voted against Trump than for him”. I’m going to bet a dollar that there was no choice of “vote here against Trump” on the actual ballot.
Keep dreaming the GOPe dream, CW. That’s working out so very well, right?
D. Trump 32.5% 239,851
M. Rubio 22.5% 165,881
T. Cruz 22.3% 164,790
J. Bush 7.8% 57,863
J. Kasich 7.6% 56,206
B. Carson 7.2% 53,326
Looks like there is a FOURTH man here...
7.8 + 7.6 + 7.2 = 22.6 Mr. Busichson
Agree 110%, RUBIO is the problem. Rubio must be vanquished.
This board is proof. Hardly any FReepers are in the tank for him.
We need a Cruz Trump coalition.
If Trump was smart, he would see the party and money giants gearing up big time to back Rubio.
Rubio is Trump’s real threat. Trump needs to re-direct both barrels at Rubio as should Cruz.
I guess this post applies to all of us Cruz supporters. Good luck winning the Presidency without a key part of the base. We know how that worked out for Bush.
FACTS show that more people voted against Rubio than for him.
FACTS show that more people voted against Cruz than for him.
FACTS show that more people voted against Bush than for him.
FACTS show that more people voted against Kasich than for him.
FACTS show that more people voted against Carson than for him.
Half full? or half empty?
I believe BOTH are not qualified.
A court will have to determine it.
That’s not called “Conspiracy Theory”. It’s called OPINION.
I know but you think no one should ever question politicians, the media or the government.
Our Founding Fathers said we should be SKEPTICAL..... and always ask questions. Not be obedient like Prisoners or Slaves.....
Today some people call anyone that questions KNOWN ON THE RECORD CERTIFIED LIARS a conspiracy theorist?
Are you assuming he doesn't see?
I posted this on the Official Freerepublic Facebook Group.
Well said!
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