Posted on 03/05/2016 7:30:32 AM PST by tatown
POlls ALways undershoot conservatives. Always.
Look its just as irritating as chit but we are going to have to put up with Cruz yapping about how he’s the only candidate who can beat Trump for one more election night. This is it for him. Likely Trump will take KY and LA and he gets delegates from KS and ME so no way Teddy catches up. The Cruzbots will be dancing around the fire tonight but its not really meaningful.
Oops, sorry, #571
would you believe that CRUZ is doing very well in California!
No, I was at a KS caucus. There was a lot of support there for Cruz. Also, the anti-Trump sentiment was strong with those not there to support him. My guess is that is part of what resulted in the huge turnout. It worked against him not for him. Personally, I would have crawled over broken glass to vote for Cruz and against Donald Trump, and I was far from the only GOP voter there who felt that way. I even talked to a couple of undecided voters that were mostly there to vote against Trump. I tried to persuade them to vote Cruz. I think Trump’s antics at the last couple of debates may have caused a backlash against him here in Kansas today. He just doesn’t seem to take things seriously enough. Probably because he doesn’t see Hillary as the threat that we do.
With the illegals ?
The Maine numbers are just not updating. It seems like it’s been stuck on the same figures for an hour or so.
Thanks for your Cruz vote KansasGirl !!!!
I see Trump fanboy, Drudge, doesn’t have his gimmicky poll on today. The Trumpbots would have insured another Drudge ‘poll’ win, but that would counter the actual results of the people voting.
It’s all downhill for the Donald. There’s all another season of the Apprentice or visits to Howard Stern.
I would not put it past the GOPe to tamper in our elections. They are desperate hell they would help Hillary win that should tell you who they are.
KY looks good for Trump - they’re hopeful there and Trump should be strong in LA with all the blue collar crowd he’s running very well with.
At worst for Trump, the night will be a wash and he’ll still take home a boatload of delegates coming in second.
HA... not at all. With some sick and tired Republicans that want change!! REAL CONSERVATIVE CHANGE!!!! THere’s a swelling surge to take back our state!
Now you sound like John Kerry in 2004.
He won the exit polls!!
I would not have predicted the margin, but not overly shocked that Kansas went Cruz.
Have to wait and see how the rest of the night goes before drawing any major conclusions.
You imbeciles are handing it back to the establishment. I’ve been on FR long enough to know the people here are smart so I don’t know what the hell happened to you.
Must not be adding right for the establishment. Lol
But take it to the bank, Trump lost Colorado, and lost it big.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-for-republicans-in-this-weekends-elections/
Kansas caucuses
At stake: 40 delegates: 12 district, 28 statewide
Delegate targets to be on track to win nomination: Trump 16, Cruz 20, Rubio 13
We have just two polls in Kansas, the minimum number FiveThirtyEight’s model requires to issue a forecast. That forecast makes Donald Trump a slight favorite, but Kansas holds closed caucuses (only registered Republicans can vote), and Trump has underperformed with self-identified Republicans, so don’t be surprised if he loses here. Trump hasn’t done all that well in caucuses, and Ted Cruz won Kansas’s southern neighbor, Oklahoma, and Iowa, just to the northeast. Three delegates are awarded proportionally in each of Kansas’s four congressional districts, with no minimum thresholds. So Cruz, Trump and Marco Rubio will likely split those. An additional 25 delegates are proportionally awarded to each candidate who finishes above 10 percent statewide. Those too will likely be split among Cruz, Trump and Rubio. Another three delegates go to the statewide winner.
Kentucky caucuses
At stake: 46 statewide delegates
Delegate targets: Trump 21, Cruz 20, Rubio 17
The one poll of Kentucky conducted in February found Trump with 35 percent, Rubio with 22 percent, Cruz with 15 percent and John Kasich with 6 percent.1 I have no idea if that’s right. There hasn’t been enough polling for us to issue a forecast, and caucuses are hard to poll anyway. Like in Kansas, however, there’s a chance Trump underperforms in Kentucky because it holds a caucus, which requires more organization than a primary. Either way, Kentucky is unlikely to alter the delegate math much; all its delegates are awarded proportionally with just a 5 percent threshold.
Louisiana primary
At stake: 46 delegates: 18 district, 28 statewide
Delegate targets: Trump 23, Cruz 22, Rubio 14
Trump will probably roll in Louisiana. Not only has he done well in other Deep South states so far, but both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecasts have him finishing with somewhere around 45 percent of the vote. Even if Trump romps, though, Louisiana’s delegate rules won’t allow him to rack up a large margin. Three delegates are awarded proportionally in each of the state’s six congressional districts, with no threshold. The 28 statewide delegates are awarded proportionally with a 20 percent threshold. That may mean that Rubio misses out on those statewide delegates because both FiveThirtyEight forecasts have him falling just short of 20 percent. (Cruz is above 25 percent in both models.) But there’s a catch: Unlike almost every other state, Louisiana allows unbound delegates. If a candidate receives 45 percent of the vote, they receive 45 percent of the delegates, regardless of how many candidates cross the 20-percent threshold. Any leftover delegates go to the convention unbound, which means it’s unlikely any candidate will win a majority of delegates from Louisiana. (Are you sensing a theme yet?)
Maine caucuses
At stake: 23 statewide delegates
Delegate targets: Trump 9, Cruz 9, Rubio 10
Maine, like Kansas, holds closed caucuses. That’s bad for Trump. On the other hand, Trump has dominated contests in New England so far (see Massachusetts and New Hampshire), and he has the endorsement of Maine Gov. Paul LePage. But like the rest of the Saturday contests, the threshold to receive any delegates is low, just 10 percent. Even Kasich, who has easily hit 10 percent in all three New England contests so far, could receive some delegates from Maine. If the statewide winner in Maine gets over 50 percent of the vote, he’ll sweep all 23 delegates. But that seems unlikely given that no candidate has gotten over 50 percent in any contest so far.
Puerto Rico primary
At stake: 23 delegates territory-wide
Delegate targets: Trump 8, Cruz 8, Rubio 15
We’ll get a good test of whether Hispanics truly “love” Trump this Sunday in the Puerto Rico primary. Most of the political organization on the island is in Rubio’s corner. Puerto Rico was also very friendly to mainstream Republican Mitt Romney in 2012; Romney received 83 percent of the vote. Puerto Rico’s 23 delegates are awarded proportionally to each candidate finishing above 20 percent of the vote. It would be quite a blow to Trump’s “Hispanics love me” argument if he finished below that threshold, though he hasn’t gotten below 20 percent in any contest yet. The 23 delegates become winner-take-all if a candidate gets above 50 percent of the vote.
He said, roughly, take an oath that no matter how you feel that day, no matter the weather, that you will get to the voting booth and cast your vote for me.
“If Cruz gets the over 50% he gets all the delegates.
And so far the #s have him over that.
So 0 for Trump!!!”
Well, Cruz now at 45%, and I would be shocked if he didn’t go down from there. I’ll just be glad if he pulls out a win there.
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